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Thread: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    You do know his is not accurate, right?


    You need to prove the negative. It should be easy. It is what is only what is asked of those who doubt the validity of the the claims of AGW proponents.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    You need to prove the negative. It should be easy. It is what is only what is asked of those who doubt the validity of the the claims of AGW proponents.
    Frankly,if you had really wanted to know, you'd have questioned this the first I've you saw it. But it misrepresents the positions of those they list. Not to mention that a survey doesn't speak to consensus at all. Instead, consensus is about the number of studies showing the same result. This as all been linked before, anyone concerned with this topic as already seen it. Only the faithful deniers accept nonsense like the thousand unquestioned.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...limate-change/
    Last edited by Boo Radley; 02-24-13 at 02:09 PM.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Frankly,if you had really wanted to know, you'd have questioned this the first I've you saw it. But it misrepresents the positions of those they list. Not to mention that a survey doesn't speak to consensus at all. Instead, consensus is about the number of studies showing the same result. This as all been linked before, anyone concerned with this topic as already seen it. Only the faithful deniers accept nonsense like the thousand unquestioned.

    Timeline: The Politics of Climate Change | Climate of Doubt | FRONTLINE | PBS



    That link is not what you promised it to be.

    Where is the listing of the studies that show the same result?

    From what I've seen, most studies show different results. MIT, as an example, releases a new projection almost annually and the none of these releases has shown the "Same Result". In truth, most studies released more recently show a lower and lower projection of warming as the fallacy of the previous studies created and contrived to induce panic are revealed to be wildly inaccurate. The 2009 prediction from MIT included a range of variation between 3.5 and 7.4 degrees over the next century. Both ends of this scale are higher than the 2003 projection.

    The question, obviously, is whether the science that they claimed supported their hysteria was rigged or if the physical properties of CO2 have changed over the last 30 years. I tend to think that the physical properties of CO2 are consistent across time. I could be wrong.

    Do you have a link that shows that all of the studies have shown and are showing the same result? In the case of gravity, as an example, the studies will show that bodies of particular mass and density will fall through the air at pretty specific rates in pretty specific locations. This was true when a couple balls were dropped off the tower in Pisa and it's true today. Across time.

    As I understand climate science, the predicted and observed results are not so consistent and certainly are not predictable.

    Lacking agreement between the human beings that are the scientists, the results of the studies that vary wildly in their predictions and change annually and the observed results vs predictions, on what is the consensus that is touted based? The links below show that MIT disagrees with MIT and that almost everyone else disagrees with almost everyone else.

    http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/roulette-0519.html
    <snip>
    Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

    The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.
    <snip>

    http://www.ig.utexas.edu/people/staf..._predictio.htm
    Last edited by code1211; 02-24-13 at 03:26 PM.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    That link is not what you promised it to be.

    Where is the listing of the studies that show the same result?

    From what I've seen, most studies show different results. MIT, as an example, releases a new projection almost annually and the none of these releases has shown the "Same Result". In truth, most studies released more recently show a lower and lower projection of warming as the fallacy of the previous studies created and contrived to induce panic are revealed to be wildly inaccurate. The 2009 prediction from MIT included a range of variation between 3.5 and 7.4 degrees over the next century. Both ends of this scale are higher than the 2003 projection.

    The question, obviously, is whether the science that they claimed supported their hysteria was rigged or if the physical properties of CO2 have changed over the last 30 years. I tend to think that the physical properties of CO2 are consistent across time. I could be wrong.

    Do you have a link that shows that all of the studies have shown and are showing the same result? In the case of gravity, as an example, the studies will show that bodies of particular mass and density will fall through the air at pretty specific rates in pretty specific locations. This was true when a couple balls were dropped off the tower in Pisa and it's true today. Across time.

    As I understand climate science, the predicted and observed results are not so consistent and certainly are not predictable.

    Lacking agreement between the human beings that are the scientists, the results of the studies that vary wildly in their predictions and change annually and the observed results vs predictions, on what is the consensus that is touted based? The links below show that MIT disagrees with MIT and that almost everyone else disagrees with almost everyone else.

    Climate change odds much worse than thought - MIT News Office
    <snip>
    Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

    The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.
    <snip>

    Uncertainties in Model Predictions of Future Climate
    Within it there is reference to the signers of disagreement and the problems with it. Other links can show the trouble with meteorologists. One was on NPR just Thursday discussing the mistakes he and others made while trying to dispute the science. Again, this is merely another mistaken premise. ,


    Meanwhile, researcher Ed Maibach polled people before Climate Matters began, then again a year into it. He says compared with viewers of other local stations, those who watched Jim Gandy gained a more scientifically grounded understanding of climate change, from understanding that it's largely caused by humans, that it's happening here and now and that it's harmful.

    Forecasting Climate With A Chance Of Backlash : NPR
    Last edited by Boo Radley; 02-24-13 at 04:08 PM.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    I happen to be an author on one of the studies that you quoted, and feel like perhaps I should clarify a few points.

    In the last few decades we have indeed become more aware of just how variable the climate has been throughout the Holocene. Maybe thirty or forty years ago we thought that the climate warmed up after the last glaciation about 15,000 years ago, got perhaps slightly warmer than today, and then gradually got slightly cooler over the course of the last 7 or 8 thousand years. Improved analytical techniques have shown that this is an over-simplification. The climate has been variable throughout the Holocene.

    So the climate has always been changing naturally. Great! Does this mean we're let off the hook with the climate change we're seeing now? No.

    There are some important reasons why the realisation that the Holocene climate has been variable should not be used as evidence against human-induced climate change:

    1) Most reconstructions from most parts of the world (it does vary) do bear out the general trend towards cooler conditions for most of the Holocene. The warming we're seeing now is, therefore, qualitatively different - not least in the fact that the recent warming has now been clearly observed all over the globe - http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo1797.html

    2) The fact that atmospheric CO2 concentration has not been implicated in these past changes, again suggests that the current change is different, since global temperatures appear to rise as CO2 concentrations have increased.

    3) The innate variability that is now becoming apparent in the Holocene climate at a range of timescales from millennia to centuries and decades, means that we would expect future change to be variable too. This is what we have seen in the last decade or so, where the warming has appeared to "pause". CONTRA -> Desperately trying to explain the

    This is not a conspiracy where we are trying to make facts fit some dogmatic belief in anthropogenic global warming. I don't really know about the future climate, I'm not a modeller - the past climate is a big enough field for me. These are the facts, as far as we understand them. Yes, there is complexity, subtlety, and uncertainty - that's because we're trying to be honest and thorough, and we are studying some very complex and subtle systems.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Frankly,if you had really wanted to know, you'd have questioned this the first I've you saw it. But it misrepresents the positions of those they list. Not to mention that a survey doesn't speak to consensus at all. Instead, consensus is about the number of studies showing the same result. This as all been linked before, anyone concerned with this topic as already seen it. Only the faithful deniers accept nonsense like the thousand unquestioned.

    Timeline: The Politics of Climate Change | Climate of Doubt | FRONTLINE | PBS



    I'm glad for all of these folks who rub each other's backs and make each other feel really, really good.

    Now produce the evidence that the misconception they share has any scientific validity by producing the 30 year old prediction that is accurate.

    I'll show you one that is not accurate:

    http://images.debatepolitics.com/attach/jpg.gif
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    I'm glad for all of these folks who rub each other's backs and make each other feel really, really good.

    Now produce the evidence that the misconception they share has any scientific validity by producing the 30 year old prediction that is accurate.

    I'll show you one that is not accurate:

    http://images.debatepolitics.com/attach/jpg.gif
    Your link doesn't work, but you're not really citing yourself are you?

    The proof is in the ver wheeling body of work and acceptance of that work by the vast majority of the scientific community.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Your link doesn't work, but you're not really citing yourself are you?

    The proof is in the ver wheeling body of work and acceptance of that work by the vast majority of the scientific community.

    The link is just the words for the picture of the failed predictions of Dr. Hansen.

    Attachment 67151023
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Your link doesn't work, but you're not really citing yourself are you?

    The proof is in the ver wheeling body of work and acceptance of that work by the vast majority of the scientific community.
    Didn't the "ver wheeling body of work and acceptance" (whatever that is) at one point in time also say that blacks were inferior to whites? Can you reproduce the hypothesis of the religion of GW in scientific settings? The problem that you have with continuing this charade of wealth redistribution in the name of saving the world from the human virus is that instead of truly letting science accurately study the phenomena, politicians have figured out that they could co opt the theory, and turn into a way to not only control the people, but take their wealth, all while getting rich off it themselves...It is a scam, a fraud...And all the name calling, and self serving arrogance about the matter will not change that liberal/progressives have ruined the trust in scientific pronouncements by subverting the system to their own ends. Shame on you libs.
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Didn't the "ver wheeling body of work and acceptance" (whatever that is) at one point in time also say that blacks were inferior to whites?
    Beliefs in the past were shown to be wrong, therefore all scientific conclusions today are wrong. Great thinking!

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