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Thread: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    No. Local - Took the wife to Disneyland for the weekend. 34th anniversary. Call it a cross town weekend getaway.
    very cool ...

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    We just need more Government Spending! Anyone who disagrees is stupid!

    Correct, spending creates jobs


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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    very cool ...
    Been going there for 50 years. It still doesn't get old. Me, however.......................

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Ontologuy View Post
    I looked all over, couldn't find any posting for THIS MORNING'S announcement from the BLS ...

    Unemployment rises to 7.9 percent, economy adds 157,000 jobs | The Ticket - Yahoo! News
    Of course, the report is grossly inaccurate, as the number of unemployed didn't rise "from 12.2 million in December to 12.3 million in January", first of all because the report we received this morning from the BLS is mostly for DECEMBER, the second week in December through the first week in January, so it is hugely more accurate to state that the number of unemployed rose "from 12.2 million in NOVEMBER to 12.3 million in DECEMBER",
    What on Earth are you talking about? The reference week in December was the week of December 9-15 and the reference week in January was the week of January 6-12. November has nothing to do with it. The reference week is almost always the week that contains the 12th (November 2012 used the week of 4-10 because otherwise the interviewers would have been trying to get hold of people Thanksgiving week.

    and second because the quick-calc number is grossly inaccurate, the true unemployment rate maintaining around 14% and thus the number of truly unemployed, those who want work and are out of work and would take a job if one were available, is millions higher.
    Please show your math on that. Even if you include everyone not in the labor force who says they want a job, regardless of ability to accept or if they've ever looked for work, that rate would only be 11.7%*

    The quick-calc unemployment rate went up to 7.9% even while hundreds of thousands more American citizens dropped off the counting radar.
    Untrue. Hell, more people were added to the population due to revisions to Census population controls. So more people were counted than last month. No idea where you're getting the idea that anyone "dropped off" unless you're looking at the increase in Not in the Labor Force and think that means people leaving the labor force.

    *From Table A-1
    Unemployed = 12,332,000
    Labor Force = 155,654,000 so that UE rate is 12,332,000/155,654,000 = 7.9%
    Adding in the 6,631,000 Not in the Labor Force "who currently want a job" gives us (12,332,000 + 6,631,000)/(155,654,000 + 6,631,000) = 11.7% Note that about 55% of those "who currently want a job" haven't looked for work in over a year and of those who have looked in the last year, about 20% couldn't accept a job if offered.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    We just need more Government Spending! Anyone who disagrees is stupid!
    Oh no, another tea partier from the "dollars are sentient and know who spends them" school.

    Spending almost always creates jobs. The issue is what you spend on. If you spend on the military you produce few jobs. If you spend on education, infrastructure, health care, you produce a lot. Join the modern world and modern economy!

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by head of joaquin View Post
    Oh no, another tea partier from the "dollars are sentient and know who spends them" school.

    Spending almost always creates jobs. The issue is what you spend on. If you spend on the military you produce few jobs. If you spend on education, infrastructure, health care, you produce a lot. Join the modern world and modern economy!
    Where to begin with this nonsensical gibberish

    Just yesterday you Marxists were telling us that the Economy shrank because there was a reduction in defense spending. Now you're claiming defense spending doesn't create many jobs, and we need to spend more on education. Or we need to build and/or repair ore bridges or something. (Broken Window Fallacy) Obama's Stimulus spending primarily went to existing jobs in education. It didn't create jobs. It has a fiscal multiplier of 1 (meaning it didn't create any wealth. It only created more debt/waste we can never recover) The 6 trillion he has borrowed/spent in 4 years hasn't created a single net job. It only added to the deficit. We are still in negative job growth since the day he took office.

    Look it's not my problem Obamanomics has been an absolute disaster. There is nothing "modern" about Obama's economic policies. They've been tried many times, and they always fail. We need to go back to the economic policies of Reagan, which created unprecedented economic growth and a net gain of 20 million jobs within 8 years. It also ushered in the peace dividend, which both Clinton and Bush SR took advantage of for even more record job growth.

    Yea we get it, everyone who isn't deluded by Obama worship is a "tea partier" or something. /yawn

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    What on Earth are you talking about? The reference week in December was the week of December 9-15 and the reference week in January was the week of January 6-12. November has nothing to do with it. The reference week is almost always the week that contains the 12th (November 2012 used the week of 4-10 because otherwise the interviewers would have been trying to get hold of people Thanksgiving week.
    No .. you're mistaken .. .. but so are a lot of people, apparently including many news reporters, either that or their editors are blocking the truth for some reason.

    I've interviewed a BLS economist, and he revealed how the process has been done like forever.

    He told me that the information used to create the reports presented to the public at the beginning of every month are not obtained from government offices reporting in about this or that actual occurrence during the named month of the particular report.

    Instead, the information for the report so-named "January" is collected during the second week of January by an interview process performed by the U.S. Census Department as contracted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The Census Department interviews roughly 60,000 pre-selected households (which change periodically) (amounting to roughly 120,000 working-qualified people) and roughly 150,000 businesses.

    Yes, that many interviews happen each and every month .. and in those interviews the interviewees are asked questions about what happened in the second week of the previous month through the first week of the current month.

    That's right, for the information for that approximately 4-week period is always from the second week of the previous month through the first week of the current month, or, in this case, from the second week of December thru the first week of January.

    The interview process occurrs during the second week of, in this case, January, and then the remainder of January is spent tabulating the results and producing the reports ..

    .. Which are released to the public at the beginning of the next month, in this case, February.

    That's how it's done.

    Now I don't expect many average citizens to be aware of this, even though I've been telling this truth for some time now ..

    .. But I do expect news reporters/editors to be aware of this .. which is why I think news reporters/editors who don't tell the whole truth about the unemployment scenario are doing the public a great disservice.


    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Please show your math on that. Even if you include everyone not in the labor force who says they want a job, regardless of ability to accept or if they've ever looked for work, that rate would only be 11.7%* Untrue. Hell, more people were added to the population due to revisions to Census population controls. So more people were counted than last month. No idea where you're getting the idea that anyone "dropped off" unless you're looking at the increase in Not in the Labor Force and think that means people leaving the labor force.
    Something else the BLS economist told me was that estimates of those who drop off the radar of their interview process are way off, as they simply assume that the people in a household that's unreachable for the interview in a given month are all in the same status they were previously but they're simply dropped from the reports.

    Audits on the matter have revealed that they are often, especially in such down times as the recession and now, around 60% of the actual figure of "discouraged workers", as those many households that are unreachable are later discovered to have contained unemployed people.

    So, when you factor in that correction, to create the true unemployment rate, you're around 14% for the period of the second week in December thru the first week of January.
    You don't trust Trump? Well, there's only one way to leverage him to do what's economically right for us all: Powerful American Political Alliance. Got courage?! .. and a mere $5.00?

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    Or we need to build and/or repair ore bridges or something. (Broken Window Fallacy) Obama's Stimulus spending primarily went to existing jobs in education. It didn't create jobs.
    Infrastructure investment is the best type of stimulus when overnight interest rates are effectively pushed against the zero-bound.

    It has a fiscal multiplier of 1 (meaning it didn't create any wealth. It only created more debt/waste we can never recover) The 6 trillion he has borrowed/spent in 4 years hasn't created a single net job. It only added to the deficit. We are still in negative job growth since the day he took office.
    You have nothing to cling to except for low brow editorials that attempt to define the ARRA multipliers (there is a composition pertaining to the type, e.g. tax cuts, state aid, etc...). Try something of value for once.

    There is nothing "modern" about Obama's economic policies. They've been tried many times, and they always fail. We need to go back to the economic policies of Reagan, which created unprecedented economic growth and a net gain of 20 million jobs within 8 years. It also ushered in the peace dividend, which both Clinton and Bush SR took advantage of for even more record job growth.
    Fiscal stimulus when overnight interest rates are zero has never occurred in the U.S. This is simply a matter of fact. Reagan presided over an economy that was facing high inflation/high unemployment, and therefore increased deficit spending in the form of tax cuts and spending increases (military-Keynesianism) that were beneficial to helping the monetary policy objectives of the time "break the back" of inflation. There was never an instance of wealth loss (much less in the tune of 100% of GDP) during the height of the 1980's recession. Your attempt to compare the 1980's economic reality to the current economic reality is not as naive as it is uniformed.

    I have no expectation of a valid response. But if you want to talk about multipliers and such, maybe you should have a basic understanding of exactly what it is you wish to debate.

    Start here
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    According to current revisions of job growth for the year; there are 2.17 million more jobs in our current economy than there were a year ago, or an average monthly job creation of 180,833.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Unemployment Rises to 7.9 Percent, Economy adds 157,000 Jobs

    Encouraging to see construction continue to make strides in a positive direction. Curious as to how much of said progress could be attributed to Hurricane Sandy..

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