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Thread: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years[W: 395]

  1. #211
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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Residential investment increased by 13.5 percentage points. Nearly a full
    percentage point contribution from private investment realm in all, contrasted with less than a tenth in the previous quarter. Table 2 on the aforementioned PDF if you're interested in the nuts and bolts rather than mud slinging.
    Post the Fed spending portion of that 3rd Quarter GDP.

    Why criticize me for not looking into the "nuts and bolts" of the 3.1% GDP #s and then not post the pertinent information that shows why it was inflated ?

    I mean still, you try to slink qnd slime your way out of being honest.

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    [QUOTE=Juiposa;1061407367]Well yes, cutting federal spending will most certainly help cause a recession.

    I think we all can agree that we really have no way of knowing whether "what Obama did" (or failed to do) made the economy weaker, stronger, or mattered at all. It's not like we can run a control experiment.

    Some general principles still do apply though: The budgets do need to be balanced, the national debt does need to be reduced. As you say, even (responsible) socialists do it. We cannot risk becoming other Greece - there's no Germany to pay for our sins.

    Raising taxes is probably inevitable, because of the politics involved, but the harmful side-effect are obvious: "the rich" are not hiding their treasure in dark damp secret caves - the money is being invested in the economy. Taking it away, losing a good deal to the opportunity costs, transaction costs, misallocation and corruption, then returning it -.... if you step back and look at it with a disinterested eye, does it appear to be a rational activity at all?

    (Sure, there is government spending that comes with a "positive multiplier". Building a bridge at the right time in the right place, stuff like that. The only problem: nobody knows, in advance, when and where these "right" things are - and afterwards, you can claim whatever you please: the money is gone, and nobody will ever learn what the same money would build or create if left in the hands of taxpayers in the first place)

    We keep talking about "compromise", "balanced solution" etc - all very nice, but if you listen carefully, it takes on a surreal tinge lately. It is like a teenage daughter telling her frustrated dad: "OK, OK, I know maxing out your credit cards is kinda bad, but this is not just about spending - it is about revenues as well. Let's be responsible adults and reach a workable compromise: I will spend a little less every month, and you will get a second job, to help paying the debt off"

    Except our collective "daughter" in Congress and White House thinks that "spending less" means not spending quite as much as you could spend in future, according to some artificial "projections". "You know, we could build a huge cannon by 2070, and blow apart Mercury (for blocking our sun, partially). But, as veritable fanatics of fiscal discipline, we resolve not to do it. Here, a trillion quadrillion dollar spending cut"!

    And yes, any cut in government spending, however beneficial in the long term, will add short-term and local pressure on the economy: if any worker currently employed at the worst imaginable pork-barrel project gets his wages cut, that means, naturally, that he will spend less tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, the ripple going through every business that serves him, from the barber to the grocery shop. So? We should not do it now, because of the "risk of a recession"? OK. When should we do it? In some bright distant future when recessions are abolished by magic? Even though we keep doing the same very things - from loose monetary policy to bailouts for those who take excessive risks - that cause recessions in the first place?

    Let's face it: spending cuts are necessary, and they need to be implemented now. Now is as good (and as bad) as any other time. Unfortunately, neither party has the will to face anything that does not benefit it politically, short-term.

    (Oh yes, Republicans say a lot of right words these days. A few of them - on the tea party/libertarian fringe - even mean it. But where are the military spending cuts proposals? Why anyone would take seriously a "fiscal disciplnarian" who ignores the second-largest piece of the budget pie chart?)

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Post the Fed spending portion of that 3rd Quarter GDP.

    Why criticize me for not looking into the "nuts and bolts" of the 3.1% GDP #s and then not post the pertinent information that shows why it was inflated ?

    I mean still, you try to slink qnd slime your way out of being honest.

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    Interesting. Note that if relatively small cuts in defense spending (which produces the lowest job to tax dollar ratio of any government expenditure, and has slow velocity) contributed so much to negative growth, just think what the Tea Party slash and burn cuts to infrastructure, education, research, etc. (which are high in jobs to tax dollar and have high velocity). We'd be in a Second Bush Depression if they had their way.

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    Do you have any clue as to what that equates to in dollars and how insignificant that really is in total GDP? Any idea who pays for all that govt spending and what effect that has on consumer spending? Didn't think so?

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by gavinfielder View Post
    Anyone worth their salt saw this coming. Austerity=recession. Maybe somebody in politics might listen this time...nah, probably. not.
    This is a prime example of ignorance. The typical Obama voter.

    Obama spent 6 Trillion of our money, our kids money, our grandkids money in 4-years. There was no austerity, there was a socialist slush fund and crony capitalism. A socialist spreading the wealth around.

    Cut taxes, cut regulation, be business friendly, gut government and things would change, but common sense solutions are anathema to Obama and his Socialist agenda for Amerika.

    Anyone with half a brain knew socialism... whether from Obama, Brandt or Honecker will fail.
    The Clintons are what happens...
    when you have NO MORAL COMPASS.

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    It seems there are many who disagree with you. California's Population Is Moving Out, Census Report Shows | NBC Southern California

    With the smart Californians leaving the mismanagement will continue and soon the entire State will be TU. That's inevitable.
    LOL...I've been hearing that for the last twenty years. We are talking about a drop in a bucket here...and California could USE a few less people. There are too many people here already. It is expensive to live in California for good reason...because people WANT to live here. That makes it difficult for some people people you can't live here on a minimum wage job like you can in North Dakota, Kansas or Texas.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Why are you wanting to see that happen? Do you want Texas to fail as well?
    Texas already is a pithole. I don't think Texas failing is a question. The only reason people live in Texas is because its cheap to live there. For good reason.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Do you have any clue as to what that equates to in dollars and how insignificant that really is in total GDP? Any idea who pays for all that govt spending and what effect that has on consumer spending? Didn't think so?
    LOL....arguing out of both sides of your mouth again.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    Re: Economy shrinks for first time in 3 1/2 years

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    Pure propaganda. You're just bleeting Ezra Klein Spin.

    Federal Outlays Increased in the 4th quarter. Secondly, it was Obama that proposed defense cuts. Defense cuts were responsible for a shrinking economy?

    Federal Outlays by Quarter

    http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts.pdf

    1st: 966,188

    2nd: 884,957

    3rd: 809,969

    4th: 907,912

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