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Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

And when Clinton left office we were in recession.

After the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in US history; and the recession was one of the shortest and shallowest.

Do you really want to compare Clinton's economic record with Bush's? BWHHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
 
b
After the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in US history; and the recession was one of the shortest and shallowest.

Do you really want to compare Clinton's economic record with Bush's? BWHHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

I'm not silly enough to give any president credit for the economy, pro or con. The Clinton adm had the dotcom bubble and the beginnings of a housing bubble. Bush jr started with a recession and 911. Apples and oranges. I was merely pointing out that concentrating only on who was president in any given period is childish at best. If you are so fond of the Clinton era you should have been voting repub for Senate. After all the Clinton era "proves" that a repub controlled congress ensures a healthy economy.
 
b

I'm not silly enough to give any president credit for the economy, pro or con. The Clinton adm had the dotcom bubble and the beginnings of a housing bubble. Bush jr started with a recession and 911. Apples and oranges. I was merely pointing out that concentrating only on who was president in any given period is childish at best. If you are so fond of the Clinton era you should have been voting repub for Senate. After all the Clinton era "proves" that a repub controlled congress ensures a healthy economy.

What laws did the " repub controlled congress "pass that helped insure a healthy economy in your opinion?
 
b

I'm not silly enough to give any president credit for the economy, pro or con. The Clinton adm had the dotcom bubble and the beginnings of a housing bubble. Bush jr started with a recession and 911. Apples and oranges. I was merely pointing out that concentrating only on who was president in any given period is childish at best. If you are so fond of the Clinton era you should have been voting repub for Senate. After all the Clinton era "proves" that a repub controlled congress ensures a healthy economy.

I think rather it proves that raising taxes on the rich strengthens economic growth for a variety of well researched reasons.

While presidents don't cause or avert recessions, economic policies certainly contribute to these results. And historic shows conservative economic policies of cutting taxes on the rich and deregulation leads inevitably to recessions.
 
What laws did the " repub controlled congress "pass that helped insure a healthy economy in your opinion?

They didn't any more than Clinton did, that's my point. The growth of the 90s was a result of the dotcom bubble and rising real estate values. Clinton can claim some credit for inflating real estate prices but dotcom was the real driver. I've often asked Clinton devotees if they could point to what he specifically did to create such economic growth. I've yet to receive an answer. The economy is its own animal and trying to lay credit or blame on presidents is silly.
 
Perhaps Brown's folks jumped the gun on the premise of their projections:

But budget experts say the tax hikes on the rich have yet to really take effect. While the tax rate of up to 13.3 percent on top earners is retroactive to January 1, the revenues won't really start coming in until sometime early in 2013 because of delayed withholding.

The big windfall, experts say, came largely from top earners shifting their income or asset sales from 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2012 to avoid the federal tax increase. That's likely to lead to a big drop off early in 2013.
Tax on Rich Didn't Cause California's Deficit Magic

Seems much more plausable than anything else I've read...
 
They didn't any more than Clinton did, that's my point. The growth of the 90s was a result of the dotcom bubble and rising real estate values. Clinton can claim some credit for inflating real estate prices but dotcom was the real driver. I've often asked Clinton devotees if they could point to what he specifically did to create such economic growth. I've yet to receive an answer. The economy is its own animal and trying to lay credit or blame on presidents is silly.

Yet in post #199 you laid a none existent recession at BUBBAs feet with these words.” And when Clinton left office we were in recession. “SAD.:(
 
I think rather it proves that raising taxes on the rich strengthens economic growth for a variety of well researched reasons.

Such blanket statements are nonsense. The Clinton tax increases weren't large enough to have some magical massive impact on the entire economy. Besides Clinton signed tax increases in 93 then tax cuts in 97. His second term had better job growth, barely, but had much higher wage growth and govt revenue growth.

While presidents don't cause or avert recessions, economic policies certainly contribute to these results.

That I agree with. In general there are a limited number of things any president can do to help the economy, unfortunately they seem to have an unlimited ability to screw things up. Presidents can negatively impact the economy from many different angles other than economic policy.

And historic shows conservative economic policies of cutting taxes on the rich and deregulation leads inevitably to recessions.

Again blanket statement. Clinton signed a cut in cap gains from 28% to 20% in 97. The following years outperformed the previous. He also signed welfare reform, tariff reductions, raised the exemption on the inheritance tax and kept fed spending growth to 3%, with, I would argue, the help of a repub congress. None of this had nearly as large an impact on the 90s as the dotcom bubble and rising real estate values had.
 
Yet in post #199 you laid a none existent recession at BUBBAs feet with these words.” And when Clinton left office we were in recession. “SAD.:(

I did make a mistake. The 2001 recession started about a month and a half after Bush took office. Which of course will be proof to some that repub presidents lead to recession. Again I don't lay that recession at Bush or Clinton's feet it was the bursting of the dotcom bubble.
 
Such blanket statements are nonsense. The Clinton tax increases weren't large enough to have some magical massive impact on the entire economy. Besides Clinton signed tax increases in 93 then tax cuts in 97. His second term had better job growth, barely, but had much higher wage growth and govt revenue growth.



That I agree with. In general there are a limited number of things any president can do to help the economy, unfortunately they seem to have an unlimited ability to screw things up. Presidents can negatively impact the economy from many different angles other than economic policy.



Again blanket statement. Clinton signed a cut in cap gains from 28% to 20% in 97. The following years outperformed the previous. He also signed welfare reform, tariff reductions, raised the exemption on the inheritance tax and kept fed spending growth to 3%, with, I would argue, the help of a repub congress. None of this had nearly as large an impact on the 90s as the dotcom bubble and rising real estate values had.

bush-vs-clinton-unemployment-rate.jpg


You say that “The Clinton tax increases weren't large enough to have some magical massive impact on the entire economy “Better tell that to Newt, he thought differently in 1993, when he said,“ The tax increase will kill jobs and lead to a recession, and the recession will force people out of work and onto unemployment, and actually increase the deficit.“ Actually during Clinton's second term unemployment dropped from about 5% to about 4%, where’s his first term it dropped from 7.33 to 5%.

Notice where the tax cuts are on this BLS graph? The Dot Com bubble was the years of 1997 – 2000.Check out the graph and tell me how a bubble that stetted in 1997 would have an effect on the Clinton boom. I only see about a 1% kick in the employment rate. Maybe a bit more.
 
They didn't any more than Clinton did, that's my point. The growth of the 90s was a result of the dotcom bubble and rising real estate values. Clinton can claim some credit for inflating real estate prices but dotcom was the real driver. I've often asked Clinton devotees if they could point to what he specifically did to create such economic growth. I've yet to receive an answer. The economy is its own animal and trying to lay credit or blame on presidents is silly.

Not even close

I appreciate your effort at being even-handed, but neither the dot-com boom nor the real estate boom were large enough to create 22 million jobs.
 
Perhaps Brown's folks jumped the gun on the premise of their projections:


Tax on Rich Didn't Cause California's Deficit Magic

Seems much more plausable than anything else I've read...

Thats because you must not understand what you're reading (ie. rightwing drivel from a wingnut newsource)

Of course the revenues are coming in 2013. It's a 2013 budget!!! :lamo

Income taxes are due quarterly, so they won't see any of it until 3/30/2013
 
Not even close

I appreciate your effort at being even-handed, but neither the dot-com boom nor the real estate boom were large enough to create 22 million jobs.

One cannot simply count the jobs created directly, which may be millions in just tech nerds in no-value companies. The wealth created by those bubbles employed millions more.
 
One cannot simply count the jobs created directly, which may be millions in just tech nerds in no-value companies. The wealth created by those bubbles employed millions more.

not even close

Most of those jobs were created before the bubble even started (approx 1997)
 
not even close

Most of those jobs were created before the bubble even started (approx 1997)

Top 5 industries gaining the most jobs 1989-1999:

1. Personal supply services, 2.2m.
2. Eating and drinking places, 1.5m.
3. Local government education, 1.4m.
4. Computer and data processing services, 1.1m.
5. Local government, except education, .8m.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2000/12/art1full.pdf

Restaurants/bars (wealth), government, tech, government.
 
Top 5 industries gaining the most jobs 1989-1999:


http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2000/12/art1full.pdf

Restaurants/bars (wealth), government, tech, government.

1) So, according to *your* #'s, only 1m out of 22m jobs were in tech. Thanks for proving my point!!

2) Your #'s are for 1989-1999, which is irrelevant. We're talking about the dot com boom which was 1997-2000 (at the latest)

3) Not all of those IT jobs were in the internet side of the IT.
 
1) So, according to *your* #'s, only 1m out of 22m jobs were in tech. Thanks for proving my point!!

2) Your #'s are for 1989-1999, which is irrelevant. We're talking about the dot com boom which was 1997-2000 (at the latest)

3) Not all of those IT jobs were in the internet side of the IT.

Unless you have yearly stats by industry, I'm gonna just have to go with the decade data set that shows 6m jobs just th top5: luxuries (based on false wealth), tech and local government. If I added up the rest of the tech related stuff, real estate related stuff and other luxury items, we'd have most of the 22m: false wealth, tech and building.
 
Unless you have yearly stats by industry, I'm gonna just have to go with the decade data set that shows 6m jobs just th top5: luxuries (based on false wealth), tech and local government. If I added up the rest of the tech related stuff, real estate related stuff and other luxury items, we'd have most of the 22m: false wealth, tech and building.

The 6m you cite is just over 1/4 of the 22 million, and (a) most of those jobs were created *before* the two booms and (b) not all "luxury" jobs were the result of those two booms (because they were created *before* 1997)
 
The 6m you cite is just over 1/4 of the 22 million, and (a) most of those jobs were created *before* the two booms and (b) not all "luxury" jobs were the result of those two booms (because they were created *before* 1997)


Those are only the top5.

If I added up the rest of the tech related stuff, real estate related stuff and other luxury items, we'd have most of the 22m: false wealth, tech and building.

And government, in whatever order.
 
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Thats because you must not understand what you're reading (ie. rightwing drivel from a wingnut newsource)

Of course the revenues are coming in 2013. It's a 2013 budget!!! :lamo

Income taxes are due quarterly, so they won't see any of it until 3/30/2013

Uh...but California's fiscal year begins in July...I believe the article suggests that since the tax increases are retroactive AND there was a major increase in 4th quarter revenue the budget reflects an overly optimistic projections.

Kinda also confused on the 'wingnut newsource'...CNBC, really?...OH I forgot the standard knee-jerk leftwing meme...ALWAYS attack the source...typical...:lamo
 
Just a wild bit of speculation you understand, but is it possible, just barely possible, that the party of the president isn't really related to the state of the economy in general? Could it be?
 
Uh...but California's fiscal year begins in July...I believe the article suggests that since the tax increases are retroactive AND there was a major increase in 4th quarter revenue the budget reflects an overly optimistic projections.

Kinda also confused on the 'wingnut newsource'...CNBC, really?...OH I forgot the standard knee-jerk leftwing meme...ALWAYS attack the source...typical...:lamo

The article doesn't suggest that because it would be wrong.

And calculating revenue from past income isn't much of a porjection. It's a "calculation"
 
You cant even get close and you're using a 10 year period to examine a 3 year period. :lamo

That's the only period we got, and it says that many or even most of the jobs were in government, luxuries, tech and housing. It's not like you've cited anything.
 
That's the only period we got, and it says that many or even most of the jobs were in government, luxuries, tech and housing. It's not like you've cited anything.

No, its not. BLS puts out annual stats.

You're using a ten year period because your claim is BS

And I don't have to cite anything. You made the claim, now back it up
 
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