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Thread: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Dezaad View Post
    He asked you to do the math. You did it correctly. He should thank you, but he won't.

    He should also reconsider listening to whatever show he got this idea from about the FB IPO and California's revenue. The right wing propaganda machine makes people look like such fools when they spout what they have heard to the rest of the public.
    I'm not holding my breath
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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishstyx View Post
    Yeah, I posted it. Did you actually read the article posted. The State Finance office speculated that would be around $35 a share. Whats FB's stock price? Do the math.
    FB closed today at $31.45. But the IPO price was actually set over that expectation, at $38/share. The stock price fell off some on the next few days and eventually hung in the low $30 range for most of the summer. It went into the 20’s early fall but has recovered. On the 6 month settlement date it was somewhere around $28. So initial income from Zuckerberg was higher than expected and the employee income tax (withholding) was around the bottom end of the range but not significantly outside it (if at all).
    Its a point that its a budget projection for 2013/14. I'm not saying its not possible but they're basically saying the current changes to the CA tax rates and sales tax will have no impact and be exactly the same as last years economic activity in the state. Again, time will tell if the projection is rooted in reality.
    Well yeah, projections are projections. A whole lot of stuff can happen. But I found your claim lacking direct backing, and a bit dubious after a quick ‘doing the math’. Thus the reason for my question…as I read the article and looked into it closer than you, apparently.
    Last edited by Dwight; 01-11-13 at 12:03 AM.

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    I'll believe a budget surplus when I see a budget surplus.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    No, you did not. You posted a link showing that the state projected revenue. You didn't post any link showing that the state didn't get the projected revenue



    It doesn't matter what FB's stock price is now. The projection was for revenues from FB's IPO, which was priced at $38, $3 above the states projection. The IPO not only sold out, but FB released more shares, so the revenue exceeded the states projections
    Why not? Doesn't California realize tax revenue from capital gains? I think so...

    In May, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office predicted that if Facebook shares hit $45 apiece six months after the IPO, and kept rising, the combination of capital-gains taxes from investors and taxes on stock awards and options for employees of the Menlo Park-based social network would bring in $2.1 billion in taxes over the next 13 months.
    California Watches Projected Tax Revenues From Facebook IPO Sink With Stock Price - AllFacebook

    But in reflection I hope their projections work out as predicted.
    "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure" - 2006 Senator Obama...leadership failure indeed!

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Dickieboy View Post
    Why not? Doesn't California realize tax revenue from capital gains? I think so…
    For a huge chunk of it, the initial price was very important as that is when Zuckerberg was exercising options. at a strike price of 6 cents a share(!) so almost pure (taxable) profit for him. Note, BTW, that exercising options is NOT covered under capital gains (with some exceptions if you do not resell the shares for a lengthy period of time, if your employer has worked out an appropriate deal with the IRS).

    EDIT: In case you missed it, by “initial price” I mean the $38 IPO price, which was higher than the $35 speculation linked earlier. The current price can have some bearing if options at the 6 month mark are being used at the current higher price, but a huge chunk of the expected revenue was from Zuckerberg as he had, I believe, about 1/5 of the total options for 2012 and by far the most cherry strike price.
    Last edited by Dwight; 01-11-13 at 12:26 AM.

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Dickieboy View Post
    Why not? Doesn't California realize tax revenue from capital gains? I think so...
    Because the projection the poster linked to was not a projection of tax revenue from all capital gains. It was a projection of the revenues from the sales of FB stock in the FB IPO

    California Watches Projected Tax Revenues From Facebook IPO Sink With Stock Price - AllFacebook

    But in reflection I hope their projections work out as predicted.
    Your link is BS. It refers to a projection by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, which has no authority on the budget. Furthermore, they did not claim that the share price would be $45. They merely calculated what the revenues would be *IF* the share price went that high

    Paying so much attention to some internet blog for financial information doesn't make one knowledgeable
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    Because the projection the poster linked to was not a projection of tax revenue from all capital gains. It was a projection of the revenues from the sales of FB stock in the FB IPO



    Your link is BS. It refers to a projection by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, which has no authority on the budget. Furthermore, they did not claim that the share price would be $45. They merely calculated what the revenues would be *IF* the share price went that high

    Paying so much attention to some internet blog for financial information doesn't make one knowledgeable
    Thanks for missing my point...carry on!...
    "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure" - 2006 Senator Obama...leadership failure indeed!

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Dickieboy View Post
    Thanks for missing my point...carry on!...
    Didn't miss your point, but keep pretending I did if it soothes the pwnage
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsnade View Post
    Wyatt Buchanan

    Updated 12:04 pm, Thursday, January 10, 2013


    Looks like the Golden States showing us the way doesn't it?




    <For the first time in five years, California is not facing a deficit as Gov. Jerry Brown and lawmakers work to put together a spending plan for the next fiscal year.Brown released his budget Thursday morning for the 2013-2014 fiscal year, proposing a $97.7 billion plan that is 5 percent higher than the current year's spending.>


    <The budget represents a massive change for California's finances, which at their worst in February 2009 faced a $42 billion deficit. That resulted in emergency action on the budget as the state treasurer was unable to sell short term bonds, construction projects came to a halt and the controller was forced to send out IOUs instead of tax return checks.>


    Read more: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone - SFGate

    You do realize these are "projections", from a politician no less. I'd love to see the assumptions built into those projections.

    Projections are great, they just mean nothing when compared to reality.

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsnade View Post
    Looks like the Golden States showing us the way doesn't it?
    One thing that is interesting, is that when California is doing badly, then the left finds all kind of excuses, but when California does well then it is an example to follow for the rest of the country.

    I don't know what estimates his budgets are based upon, but I believe he is overestimating revenue and underestimating costs. That is what they are doing in Europe every single year. Often they are built on GDP predictions that will never happen. These are the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimations for California's GDP per capita. My guess is that Browns estimations are even higher.


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