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Thread: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Yes you have. You claimed that most of the jobs came before the official bubble start at '97.

    The chart (by term of presidential office) shows that most jobs were created in his first term (before the bubble)

    You've claimed that jobs created before that have nothing to do with the bubble.
    So you're arguing that the bubble created jobs *before* it started?

    You've claimed that jobs created after '97 are an insignificant portion of those created.
    Never said that.

    I provided a legit citation proving that most of the jobs created between 1989 and 1999 were in restaurants/bars, tech, housing and government.
    1989 through 1999 <> "bubble"

    You've provided nothing to support your version of what jobs were created, when nor how those jobs are separate from the bubble. You invented a logically implausible scenario that even a cursory examination of facts dispels.
    Unlike you, I can support everything I said with facts, when asked.
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    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
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    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    So those cities dont have to pay state taxes.? Or are not subject to Californias regulations ?
    red herring

    Those were called "liberal" places. They're not
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Ok, sangha, how many of the 22m jobs were created after the bubble, were government jobs or might otherwise be linked to the bubbles.

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Ok, sangha, how many of the 22m jobs were created after the bubble, were government jobs or might otherwise me tied to the bubbles.
    you tell us. You're the one making the claims about how the 22m new jobs under Clinton were due to the internet and real estate bubbles (even though most of the jobs were created before those bubbles)
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    you tell us. You're the one making the claims about how the 22m new jobs under Clinton were due to the internet and real estate bubbles (even though most of the jobs were created before those bubbles)
    The data I cited claims that, of the top 20 industries, the first five were luxury, (local) government, tech and housing and accounted for 6m jobs alone. Let's leave those as indisputably tainted. Let's say 30% of the 22m was post '97, that's 7m. There is little overlap between the two, as the data I presented ends at '99. So, about half of those 22m jobs are, at this cursory level of examination, BS. That leaves 10m jobs that may or may not be legit. I'll give you 75% of that, given the pervasive nature of the tech and housing bubbles. So, 7m legit jobs created in 8 years. Gratz?

    Wait, how many of those 7m are state and fed government jobs.

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    The data I cited claims that, of the top 20 industries, the first five were luxury, (local) government, tech and housing and accounted for 6m jobs alone. Let's leave those as indisputably tainted. Let's say 30% of the 22m was post '97, that's 7m. There is little overlap between the two, as the data I presented ends at '99. So, about half of those 22m jobs are, at this cursory level of examination, BS. That leaves 10m jobs that may or may not be legit. I'll give you 75% of that, given the pervasive nature of the tech and housing bubbles. So, 7m legit jobs created in 8 years. Gratz?

    Wait, how many of those 7m are state and fed government jobs.
    The data you cited was irrelevant because it doesn't match the time frame of your claim

    And to get to half of 22m, you have to go back to 1996, a full year before the bubble, and then assume that EVERY SINGLE JOB created was due to the bubbles.
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    B) I've seen no evidence (ex employment #'s, or capital investment for startups) for Silicon Valley that suggest the existence of this "momentum" you speak of
    "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"

    A very famous line from a speech Greenspan gave in 1996, forewarning the market of the bubble that burst in 2001.

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    D) Take 10 economists and you'll get 11 different opinions as to why the economy did so well in the 90's. However, most of then will agree that low interest rates, a direct result of govt policy, was a crucial factor.
    Interest rates are currently at record lows, but we ain't livin like the 90s.

    Government policy had very little to do with the 90s boom. If it did, every president would follow the magic recipe. That won't stop them from taking credit though.

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    The data you cited was irrelevant because it doesn't match the time frame of your claim

    And to get to half of 22m, you have to go back to 1996, a full year before the bubble, and then assume that EVERY SINGLE JOB created was due to the bubbles.
    So you agree that he created about 5m legit jobs (removing state and federal jobs from the previous guestimation) in 8 years? That's what, ~700k jobs per year in office.

    Or do you have other data?

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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by StringBean View Post
    Interest rates are currently at record lows, but we ain't livin like the 90s.
    I didn't say that interest rates were the only factor. There were differences. For example, Clinton reduced deficits and employment by the fed govt. bush* increased both dramatically. Financial deregulation created incentives for hiring (in the near term). So did NAFTA

    Then there were also non-governmental reason why the economy grew, such as technological innovation (and not just in the internet)

    Government policy had very little to do with the 90s boom. If it did, every president would follow the magic recipe. That won't stop them from taking credit though.
    That's an opinion, and one I obviously disagree with
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

  10. #250
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    Re: Jerry Brown: California's deficit is gone

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    So you agree that he created about 5m legit jobs (removing state and federal jobs from the previous guestimation) in 8 years? That's what, ~700k jobs per year in office.

    Or do you have other data?
    No, I dont agree with anything you say unless you can back it up with facts, instead of guesstimations

    And a rise in employment in state govt jobs has nothing to do with either bubble or Clinton
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

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