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Thread: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Ok, let's say you expand the definition to everyone in the entire population who is not employed. You now have one picture...employed out of total population.
    That's right. One other picture along with many other pictures.

    Pretty much everyone in the world uses the ILO definition of actively looking for work.
    'Pretty much' is not everyone. Adding another dimension to the information available is not a bad thing.

    Sure, but you don't need to change the definition of unemployment to see that. And by expanding it to all not working, you cannot tell who will or will not be working. You can't tell who wants to work, who is available, or what anyone is doing about working.
    That information belongs to other pictures. Nothing else is being eliminated, only more information is being added.
    They are. And they are studied. Expanding the definition of unemployed would actually hurt researching those issues. As it is, we can look at who is working, who is looking for work, who might start looking for work, who doesn't want to work etc. That would be a lot harder to do if you simply grouped everyone together as "unemployed."
    That information is also important and forms another part of the entire picture.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    It doesn't distort any picture because there is more than one picture. There are many ways to measure unemployment and this is just one of them. it's important in demographics for people to understand how many people will be working and how many people who will not be working. Can those who are not working be supported and sustained by those who are working? What is the ratios before problems arise? These are important issues as well.
    Our labor force participation rate increased during the 20th century and basically topped out around the year 2000, and has been declining ever since.

    Since the year 2000 we have continued to become richer in aggregate and even though we took a dip in GDP during the recession, productivity per work hour has continued to grow. By all measures except for the price of real estate and the unemployment rate, we have fully recovered from the Great Recession.

    For the past five years or so our productivity per work hour has increased even more than our labor force participation rate declined. It would be interesting to look at a graph of labor force participation rate overlaid onto a graph of hourly productivity, I think that we would find a negative correlation. The more productive that we become, the less that we have a need to work.

    If we were to project out the increase in hourly productivity and the corresponding decrease in labor force participation rate since the beginning of the 21st century over the rest of the century, assuming that the standard work week continues to be around 40/hr/week, there would likely be some point in which we find that the majority of families will not be able to have employment. This creates a real issue.

    If most families will eventually lack a source of income, then who is going to be the consumer? How will businesses be able to be profitable is they have a lack of customers? how will families that don't have an income source be able to survive?

    We are seeing a gradual paradigm shift in our economy (which is actually quite normal), that is going to force us to establish different expectations of our standard of living and work requirements. The difference in the dynamics of the economy and our standard of living between the beginning and of the 21st century will likely be even bigger than we saw during the span of the 20th century.

    Personally, favor the proposition of a standard work week which is just three hours a day one day a week for just a few years of their lives (the George Jetson work week), much more than the alternative, which is longer work hours by a few who will be forced to support the masses who can't find jobs at all. the only other scenario that I can see is mass poverty on a scale that would make the standard of living by most Americans essentially comparable to to what we had during the dark ages.
    Last edited by imagep; 01-05-13 at 02:29 PM.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    When Obama was sworn in as president we were losing 800,000 jobs per month and that was with th Bush tax cuts in place.
    It wasn't "800K jobs per month". Stop pushing lies.

    With all recessions there is an initial high loss of jobs as toxic investments are flushed out of the market and corrections are made. There wasn't 800K lost month after month after month. Stop lying.

    On the other hand Biden predicted the economy would create 500k jobs a month if we passed that rotten stimulus. Obama's economic team predicted we'd be at 5.2% Unemployment right now.

    44 - Biden predicts economy will create up to 500,000 jobs a month soon

    All in all we're going to be creating somewhere between 100[,000] and 200,000 jobs next month, I predict," Biden said, according to a pool report, adding that he "got in trouble" for a job growth prediction last month. "Even some in the White House said, 'Hey, don't get ahead of yourself.' Well, I'm here to tell you, some time in the next couple of months, we're going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.
    The blame Bush card is old, tired, cliche, and worn out. Time to find a new scapegoat to pin your pathetic failed policies onto. My suggestion would be the source as to why this recession is going on 4 years and counting. Barack Obama, but I'm not crossing my fingers. The Left will never accept responsibility for their failures.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    .

    It would be interesting to look at a graph of labor force participation rate overlaid onto a graph of hourly productivity, I think that we would find a negative correlation.
    Ask and you shall receive!

    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    That's right. One other picture along with many other pictures.
    No, you don't. You have no other pictures because you're making no other distinctions. If you classify the entire population as either employed or unemployed, what other pictures do you think you have?



    'Pretty much' is not everyone. Adding another dimension to the information available is not a bad thing.
    I said "pretty much" because it's possible that some third world country does try to measure unemployment using a different definition. I'm not aware of any such. Some European countries still use receipt of benefits as a measure, but they all now also use the labor force approach.

    That information belongs to other pictures. Nothing else is being eliminated, only more information is being added.
    How do you think any more information is added? We already have the information on percent of population working and participating. There is no need to include children, prisoners, mental patients etc because that does not add any additional information for looking at the job market.


    That information is also important and forms another part of the entire picture.
    You're being very vague over what "pictures" you're talking about.

    Let's make it simple: describe how you would set up a system to look at the labor market/employment/unemployment.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    The blame Bush card is old, tired, cliche, and worn out.
    So is the blame Obama card.

    Time to find a new scapegoat to pin your pathetic failed policies onto.
    No, we don't need scapegoats. There were lots of reasons why our economy failed, and plenty of blame to go around. It's not so important as to create scapegoats as it is to study history so that we can not make the same mistakes again.

    My suggestion would be the source as to why this recession is going on 4 years and counting.
    The recession ended 4 months after Obama took office. Our economy has been growing ever since. Our GDP, even adjusted for inflation is now at a record level. Income growth for the median income earner, and unemployment are the only two metrics that are lagging.

    The lack of significant income growth for the median income earner is largely due to unemployment, an insufficient demand for labor. Insufficient demand for labor is caused by a combination of insufficient demand for products and services, and our increasing hourly productivity rate. the only way that we are going to lower the unemployment rate is if we have fewer people in the workforce, or if we decrease the average number of work hours, or figure out a way to increase demand in our economy. The most obvious solution is tax cuts on the consumer class, even if that results in a higher budget deficit. Worried about the budget deficit and debt - then increase taxes on the rich.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Ask and you shall receive!

    Thanks for posting that.

    At around the year 2000 our participation rate started to fall, although it is only slightly noticiable on the chart, and then just about the time that the recession started, it started to fall more, which is fully expected during a recession with the magnatude that we had. Also, around the start of the recession, the first of the baby boomers started to retire, which amplified the decline in the labor force participation rate even more.

    Regardless of what happens to our economy, more and more baby boomers will be out of our workforce, which kind of works out well for those of us who wish to remain in our workforce. the down side for those of us who remain in the workforce is that there is absolutely no reason that productivity per hour would stop increasing, thus we are competing against our ever improving technology. While technology does create some new jobs, it eliminates old jobs at a faster rate.

    The only way to combat this is by increasing our standard of living (consumption/demand and leisure hours) at a rate faster than technology eliminates old jobs.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Travis007 View Post
    This is a joke.. look at the u6 numbers..

    Obama is a plague to destroy the USA... Obama is the Jihad..
    no travis, as usual, you are mistaken...Obama is your PRESIDENT..

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Thanks for posting that.

    At around the year 2000 our participation rate started to fall, although it is only slightly noticiable on the chart, and then just about the time that the recession started, it started to fall more, which is fully expected during a recession with the magnatude that we had. Also, around the start of the recession, the first of the baby boomers started to retire, which amplified the decline in the labor force participation rate even more.

    Regardless of what happens to our economy, more and more baby boomers will be out of our workforce, which kind of works out well for those of us who wish to remain in our workforce. the down side for those of us who remain in the workforce is that there is absolutely no reason that productivity per hour would stop increasing, thus we are competing against our ever improving technology. While technology does create some new jobs, it eliminates old jobs at a faster rate.

    The only way to combat this is by increasing our standard of living (consumption/demand and leisure hours) at a rate faster than technology eliminates old jobs.
    The biggest problem facing the U.S. economy is (IMO) the lack of skilled tradesman, namely welders and iron workers. Part of the reason why a massive infrastructure stimulus was unattainable is because we don't have enough laborers to actually complete such projects in a manner that would provide a legitimate short term boost to the economy. And some will actually call for deunionization.....
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    The biggest problem facing the U.S. economy is (IMO) the lack of skilled tradesman, namely welders and iron workers. Part of the reason why a massive infrastructure stimulus was unattainable is because we don't have enough laborers to actually complete such projects in a manner that would provide a legitimate short term boost to the economy. And some will actually call for deunionization.....
    Hmm, that's interesting. Do you have any links that support that (not that I am disagreeing, I just want to know more). I always wondered why the spendulous bill never resulted in the promised infrastructure improvement.

    And I find it odd that we have a lack of welders, seems like around my parts that's one of the biggies that they teach at the high school vocational schools and at the tech colleges.

    It's also one of the skills that has largely been replaced by automation:
    Last edited by imagep; 01-05-13 at 03:20 PM.

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