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Thread: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

  1. #141
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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    The BLS predicts the employment rate for welders to experience little or no change, and if it does change, it may decline 2% between 2008 and 2018. Increased automation and advancements in productivity and efficiency will contribute to the reduced need for manual welding. For this reason, the BLS also predicts job prospects will be better for those trained in the newest welding technologies.
    Master Welder: Salary and Career Facts

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Why would anyone expect a fall in construction spending before a fall in spending on construction employees? It's virtually the same thing, and yes, they should rise or fall at nearly exactly the same rate.

    Again, I think I am missing the point of this entire argument, maybe even the entire thread.
    If A causes B, then A must precede B.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    So did home construction. And your point is?
    That if you're just going to blame spending in general, then:

    A) All industries should be equally affected.
    B) Decreases in spending should precede decrease in production/unemployment.

    Neither of those things are true.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    For perspective

    In defense of utilities, that's not nearly as speculative as construction, which would explain why it was the least affected. In effect, when you produce energy, you are producing a consumer goods. It is higher orders of production (to be more technical) that are most affected, and generally that's the more capital-intensive industries. In other words, whatever is furthest away from consumers is affected the most.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    You have no correlation though. This is the same increase in productivity that we've had through the 2000s. What then is causing unemployment to remain so high?
    The median household income hasn't increased as much as during the 2000's (I don't know, that's just a guess).

    Seriously, the 10% increase in productivity in just four years is huge. Here is another chart showing what I am talking about

    Also, the labor participation rate dropped during the entire 2000's, even before the recession.

    Increases in productivity are simply happening at a faster rate than increases in demand. Chart out the trend for another 50 or 100 years and our labor force participation rate may be down to almost nothing.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    That if you're just going to blame spending in general, then:

    A) All industries should be equally affected.
    B) Decreases in spending should precede decrease in production/unemployment.

    Neither of those things are true.
    The Bush Housing bubble was the cause of the rise and fall of construction spending and employment. Where were you in 2002-2007? On Mars?

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    That's not little change. That's huge. A 5% change over a typical 62.5% means that 8% more people are unemployed than are typically employed. Nearly 1 in 10 people who would be working are not.
    No it doesn't. Not employed is not the same as unemployed. While the emp-pop ratio has gone down and the labor force participation has gone down, the percent of people who do not want to work has gone up. Not a complete offset, but you can't use changes in labor force % or emp-pop % to talk about how many people would be working.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    It seems you don't quite understand. What you mentioned will still be studied and analyzed. The other is just a simple formula used in demographics to determine the future costs of public programs and how they will be paid. Roght now the boomers are going to need a lot of young people there to pay for their pensions, medical expenses and so forth. Will these expenses be covered by those who are working and paying taxes is an important question. This research also has implications in immigration also.
    So I'm at a loss as to why you think any changes need to be made or what you think isn't covered under current methodology. Like I said, a broad outline of what you have in mind would be useful.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    No it doesn't. Not employed is not the same as unemployed. While the emp-pop ratio has gone down and the labor force participation has gone down, the percent of people who do not want to work has gone up. Not a complete offset, but you can't use changes in labor force % or emp-pop % to talk about how many people would be working.
    What's the fundamental change, then? You say age? Explain why unemployment among 20-24 year olds is at 13.7%.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    [QUOTE=Helix;1061319315]recovery is still slow and exceptionally delicate.
    we aren't out of the woods yet.[/
    QUOTE]

    There is NO recovery, there WAS no job growth.

    Just stop and think for a second. What if 4 years into a Republicans term we Cons were parroting some ridiculous diatribe about a "recovery" if there had been a record shrinkage in the labor pool and a record number of people dependent on govt services ??

    No, we're sinking...STILL.. and no amount of twisted job reports or GDP numbers from a highly corrupt White House will change that.

    And the worst is yet to come as liberals scoff at us Cons when we mention the debt because to them its a "non-issue".

    Lets see if its a non-issue when interest rates increase and we cant even afford to service our debt as millions more depend on Govt asistance that WON'T be there or millions more line up in unemployment lines.

    You people did this. Those who ignorantly re-elected a man who's the least qualififed person in every room he walks into.

    Your solution to replacing a President who had integrity and was qualified and who you called an idiot, liar, chimp, etc was to elect AN ACTUAL LIAR AND A IDIOT......

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