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Thread: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Ok, let's say you expand the definition to everyone in the entire population who is not employed. You now have one picture...employed out of total population.Pretty much everyone in the world uses the ILO definition of actively looking for work.

    [qutoe] it's important in demographics for people to understand how many people will be working and how many people who will not be working.
    Sure, but you don't need to change the definition of unemployment to see that. And by expanding it to all not working, you cannot tell who will or will not be working. You can't tell who wants to work, who is available, or what anyone is doing about working.

    They are. And they are studied. Expanding the definition of unemployed would actually hurt researching those issues. As it is, we can look at who is working, who is looking for work, who might start looking for work, who doesn't want to work etc. That would be a lot harder to do if you simply grouped everyone together as "unemployed."
    It seems you don't quite understand. What you mentioned will still be studied and analyzed. The other is just a simple formula used in demographics to determine the future costs of public programs and how they will be paid. Roght now the boomers are going to need a lot of young people there to pay for their pensions, medical expenses and so forth. Will these expenses be covered by those who are working and paying taxes is an important question. This research also has implications in immigration also.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    That's not little change. That's huge. A 5% change over a typical 62.5% means that 8% more people are unemployed than are typically employed. Nearly 1 in 10 people who would be working are not.
    The increase in hourly productivity during the recession might explain that, well at least thats my best guess.

    How would you explain that?

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    In every. Single. Recession?
    What about oil and gas extraction, or utilities? They are about as capital intensive as it gets.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    The increase in hourly productivity during the recession might explain that, well at least thats my best guess.

    How would you explain that?
    Malinvestment in higher orders of production means that employees have to shift from capital goods to consumer goods to meet the prevailing time interest. As long as government is trying to prop up an arbitrary time preference, unemployment will continue. The reason higher orders of production are affected more than lower orders is explained by Austrian Business Cycle Theory. It is the only theory that explains why capital goods are always hit harder in a recession than consumer goods.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    In every. Single. Recession?
    Yep. It makes sense as well! People are less likely to spend money on real estate when the risk of losing your job increases rather dramatically. We are less likely hold back spending on retail purchases, you know... because they typically do not require financing in the tune of 3 times your yearly income to purchase. You are beginning to grasp at straws.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    Malinvestment in higher orders of production means that employees have to shift from capital goods to consumer goods to meet the prevailing time interest. As long as government is trying to prop up an arbitrary time preference, unemployment will continue. The reason higher orders of production are affected more than lower orders is explained by Austrian Business Cycle Theory. It is the only theory that explains why capital goods are always hit harder in a recession than consumer goods.
    ABCT is bunk, and lacks empirical support. Your hatred towards econometrics does not invalidate this fact.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    The increase in hourly productivity during the recession might explain that, well at least thats my best guess.

    How would you explain that?


    So much for that theory.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Yep. It makes sense as well! People are less likely to spend money on real estate when the risk of losing your job increases rather dramatically. We are less likely hold back spending on retail purchases, you know... because they typically do not require financing in the tune of 3 times your yearly income to purchase. You are beginning to grasp at straws.
    You realize that construction employment fell before the recession started, right?

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    And government is less biased than companies?
    No, not less biased than companies in aggregate, but certainly less bias than companies who have a something to gain by trying to intice people into purchasing the products that they make.

    I sell tshirts. If I said that there was going to be a huge shortage of tshirts next year and that you should stock up on them today, wouldn't you suspect that I was being biased?

    Our government has people of all ideologies in it, if they were trying to distort facts in one direction or the other, then people in government who have alternative ideologies would be crying foul. Government agencies don't produce perfect reports, but generally I trust them more than sources that have obvious political or self serving motivations. I can't imagine why the government would tell us that we needed more or less welders than what they really expect we will need. There's no political motive for them to do that. They aren't in the welding or anti-welding business.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    What about oil and gas extraction, or utilities? They are about as capital intensive as it gets.
    Also hit hard.


    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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