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Thread: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17 View Post
    Since you all just love charts so much...

    Attachment 67140395

    As you can see, there has been virtually no change in the percent of eligible working Americans that have jobs since the recession ended in 2009.

    That's 3 years of nothing, nada, zilch, zero, zip...
    We can refer to that as a structural shift in the U.S. labor market. Namely the retiring of boomers and a glut of low-skilled/low-wage labor that tends to dominate Anglo-Saxon economies.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    You mean capital isn't homogeneous?
    Technology is not crowding out skilled labor. Otherwise there would not be such a massive demand for such. We still need people to make things.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    We can refer to that as a structural shift in the U.S. labor market. Namely the retiring of boomers and a glut of low-skilled/low-wage labor that tends to dominate Anglo-Saxon economies.
    Right. It's not because of malinvestment in higher orders of production. So, unemployment in retail and manufacturing is the same, right?


    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Technology is not crowding out skilled labor. Otherwise there would not be such a massive demand for such. We still need people to make things.
    When have you ever known me to argue in favor of the Luddite Fallacy?

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17 View Post
    Since you all just love charts so much...

    Attachment 67140395

    As you can see, there has been virtually no change in the percent of eligible working Americans that have jobs since the recession ended in 2009.

    That's 3 years of nothing, nada, zilch, zero, zip...
    I suspect that the recession temporarily speed up the process of becoming more efficient. I know that I reduced my staff by a higher precent than I lost in gross sales.
    .
    When the recession ended, it ended the necessity of frantically trying to become more efficient, and we have probably gone back to a more normal rate of increase in the application and usage of technology. This probably explains the big drop in your chart, and then leveling off by the time that the recession ended.

    It also explains why job growth now is just barely above population growth, despite the fact that our GDP has fully recovered from the recession.

    There's a heck of a lot of things effecting the labor force participation rate, some pushing it one way, others pushing it the other way. Long term, I suspect that our aging society, and increasing level of technology will win out over the other factors, and the labor force participation rate will continue to drop throughout the century, with the most major mediating factor being the shorter work week or more holidays and vacation time.

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I suspect that the recession temporarily speed up the process of becoming more efficient. I know that I reduced my staff by a higher precent than I lost in gross sales.
    .
    When the recession ended, it ended the necessity of frantically trying to become more efficient, and we have probably gone back to a more normal rate of increase in the application and usage of technology. This probably explains the big drop in your chart, and then leveling off by the time that the recession ended.
    Why was it mostly in construction? Why was retail generally unaffected? Why was manufacturing affected a middling amount?

    It also explains why job growth now is just barely above population growth, despite the fact that our GDP has fully recovered from the recession.
    I suspect it's mostly government spending.

    There's a heck of a lot of things effecting the labor force participation rate, some pushing it one way, others pushing it the other way. Long term, I suspect that our aging society, and increasing level of technology will win out over the other factors, and the labor force participation rate will continue to drop throughout the century, with the most major mediating factor being the shorter work week or more holidays and vacation time.
    It would be a great thing if it was due to increased prosperity and wealth, but I suspect we have stagnated.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    Right. It's not because of malinvestment in higher orders of production. So, unemployment in retail and manufacturing is the same, right?

    First off the graph depicts construction, not manufacturing. Secondly, there is a severe shortage of skilled tradesman, namely welders. Your strawman is of no use to you.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    When have you ever known me to argue in favor of the Luddite Fallacy?
    If you continue to respond with loaded questions, i will not.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    WTF are you talking about? Manpower group is listed on the NYSE and has a current market cap of $3.5 billion. My purpose here is not to spoon feed.
    Manpower specializes in providing employees with lower educational levels, such as welders (as opposed to Accountants) to businesses for relatively short periods of time. The more people who go into welding, the higher their inventory of workers is, and the more successful they can be in their industry. They have a clear bias towards welders and roofers and the like.

    Do you deny there is a severe shortage in skilled tradesman?
    No, I don't deny it, I just don't have knowledge of it. Thats why I asked for a source. I was just expecting a better source from you though (thats a compliment, your sources are usually top notch and there are few posters on this forum that I respect more for their knowledge).

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    re: Job growth cools slightly, recovery grinds on [W:225]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    First off the graph depicts construction, not manufacturing. Secondly, there is a severe shortage of skilled tradesman, namely welders. Your strawman is of no use to you.
    Sorry, I meant construction. Manufacturing would be right in the middle there. So do you want to explain why construction was hit so much harder than retail and historically is always more volatile?


    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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