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Thread: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    "Going over the cliff" will give Obama what he truly wants, but won't say. He wants taxes to go up on EVERYBODY and see cuts to military spending, so he can then propose a "tax cut for the middle class." (How is it a cut when it's been at these rates for a decade?) Republicans can't vote against that tax cut.

    Voila. Tax increase on the wealthy with NO entitlement cuts.

    Of course, that's like throwing a bucket of water in the ocean, so we continue our spiral. Then he goes after pensions and IRAs, then he raises taxes to European levels, and then......no more America left as we once knew it.

    George Soros Saul Alinsky are pulling the strings. Obama is the puppet out front.
    It's a conspiracy.

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    So you don't think that investor outlook will change given a change in the economic environment, even though those positions to which you refer are based on this specific issue?

    And what of people that have taken the position of a deal being made?



    This isn't really true. The only reason it has been an issue is because we are in a precarious economic situation and austerity is being pushed hard by the right. Once we get out of this situation and move back into an upswing (which we are starting to but haven't gained momentum yet) this issue will be less important.
    I think your a little overly optimistic. Obama will have added by the time he is out of office over 10 trillion to our national debt for a grand total of 20+ trillion. In return what we have is an anemic GDP of 2%. But if that is not bad enough this huge debt will drag our economy down. Instead of tax dollars being recycled and invested in our economy it will go to pay debt. This does not paint a rosy picture for me.
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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    Shouldn't they be moving forward? Not reliving the issues over and over? That would be equivalent of the supreme court rehearing cases it already ruled on.

    Their past actions were only a stop gap. They need to make real solutions and deal with the problem at hand.

    And of course, blame the right, it has nothing to do with the left.
    Well there really isn't a problem. It is a manufactured issue. The problem isn't with the deficit, it's with employment and GDP growth. Right now the government should be concerned with assisting in getting the economy moving again, going through the remains of the housing bubble, consolidating and concretizing Dodd-Frank so that banks know what to expect going forward in terms of regulation, and so on.

    Focusing on the deficit right now is the height of stupidity. Why do you think everyone is so worried about the fiscal cliff?

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    I think your a little overly optimistic. Obama will have added by the time he is out of office over 10 trillion to our national debt for a grand total of 20+ trillion. In return what we have is an anemic GDP of 2%. But if that is not bad enough this huge debt will drag our economy down. Instead of tax dollars being recycled and invested in our economy it will go to pay debt. This does not paint a rosy picture for me.
    The federal budget is approved by both congress as well as the president. Blaming Obama for the budget deficit is rather silly in that context.

    Also, the federal deficit does not cause GDP growth to slow. This is very obvious and supported by rudimentary economics and a cursory study of the federal budget deficit/surplus and GDP growth over time.

    Finally, debt is not a drag on the economy necessarily, and certainly not for the reason you state, simply because the debt is financed through the issuance of securities and not taxation.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    I disagree with the position in the OP that a deal is already baked into the market numbers. I think the lack of a deal is more likely baked into the numbers. Regardless, the big players make money whether the market goes up or goes down which is why you see all the churning as they game each other.

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Fisher View Post
    I disagree with the position in the OP that a deal is already baked into the market numbers. I think the lack of a deal is more likely baked into the numbers. Regardless, the big players make money whether the market goes up or goes down which is why you see all the churning as they game each other.
    What?

    Yes, many HF's practice a market neutral strategy but wtf does that have to do with "churning" and what does "as they game each other" even mean?
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    Well there really isn't a problem. It is a manufactured issue. The problem isn't with the deficit, it's with employment and GDP growth. Right now the government should be concerned with assisting in getting the economy moving again, going through the remains of the housing bubble, consolidating and concretizing Dodd-Frank so that banks know what to expect going forward in terms of regulation, and so on.

    Focusing on the deficit right now is the height of stupidity. Why do you think everyone is so worried about the fiscal cliff?



    The federal budget is approved by both congress as well as the president. Blaming Obama for the budget deficit is rather silly in that context.

    Also, the federal deficit does not cause GDP growth to slow. This is very obvious and supported by rudimentary economics and a cursory study of the federal budget deficit/surplus and GDP growth over time.

    Finally, debt is not a drag on the economy necessarily, and certainly not for the reason you state, simply because the debt is financed through the issuance of securities and not taxation.
    Let me try and put it in basic terms. We well soon have a 20+ trillion nation debt, and when you have to dig deep down in your pocket to begin paying that money back, guess what? You have less money to spend for discretionary goods, further the government is taking tax dollars to pay debt instead of infrastructure and and the like. Add those together and that is a huge drag on the economy.

    Now think where is this money going to come from to pay the debt, first even with a tax hike on the rich Obama will still be borrowing over 1 Trillion annually, thus where is the money going to come from to balance the budget let alone to pay down the debt. The next president has to raise taxes on everyone and seriously cut spending to even get near balancing the budget. That's a trillion dollar turnaround per year, now you have to add more taxes and cuts to be able to start paying down the debt.

    All you have to do is look at Greece and Spain and that is where we're headed. Of course there are some that think there is no end to the money supply. We have been living high on the hog on 20+ trillion of steroids. When the flow of this addiction stops this economy is going in the tank.
    Liberals - Punish the Successful, Reward the Unsuccessful
    Liberals - Tax, Borrow, Spend, and Give Free Stuff
    Obama's legacy - President Donald Trump

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    Let me try and put it in basic terms. We well soon have a 20+ trillion nation debt, and when you have to dig deep down in your pocket to begin paying that money back, guess what? You have less money to spend for discretionary goods, further the government is taking tax dollars to pay debt instead of infrastructure and and the like. Add those together and that is a huge drag on the economy.
    I've already covered this. Government doesn't finance spending through taxation, it issues debt securities. It doesn't need to pay down its debt. In boom times it can choose to do so through various means, including taxation, but again, spending itself is not financed through taxation. This is not necessarily a drag on the economy, as I have already said.

    Now think where is this money going to come from to pay the debt, first even with a tax hike on the rich Obama will still be borrowing over 1 Trillion annually, thus where is the money going to come from to balance the budget let alone to pay down the debt. The next president has to raise taxes on everyone and seriously cut spending to even get near balancing the budget. That's a trillion dollar turnaround per year, now you have to add more taxes and cuts to be able to start paying down the debt.
    Except the budget never needs to be balanced and the debt never needs to reach 0, which is your flawed fundamental premise.

    All you have to do is look at Greece and Spain and that is where we're headed. Of course there are some that think there is no end to the money supply. We have been living high on the hog on 20+ trillion of steroids. When the flow of this addiction stops this economy is going in the tank.
    Greece and Spain are completely different scenarios than the United States, and to compare them is to show your complete ignorance of the difference between apples and oranges.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    I'm worried that going over the cliff is already priced in.
    That wouldn't be bad for the market in the short term, but a big negative for our wallets. Maybe that is the plan?
    Language is political. Each of us talks, listens, and thinks in his/her own special language that has been shaped by our culture, experiences, profession, personality, mores and attitudes. The chances of us meeting someone else who talks the exact same language is pretty remote.

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    "Going over the cliff" will give Obama what he truly wants, but won't say. He wants taxes to go up on EVERYBODY and see cuts to military spending, so he can then propose a "tax cut for the middle class." (How is it a cut when it's been at these rates for a decade?) Republicans can't vote against that tax cut.

    Voila. Tax increase on the wealthy with NO entitlement cuts.

    Of course, that's like throwing a bucket of water in the ocean, so we continue our spiral. Then he goes after pensions and IRAs, then he raises taxes to European levels, and then......no more America left as we once knew it.

    George Soros Saul Alinsky are pulling the strings. Obama is the puppet out front.
    So tell us good sir... if George Soros and Saul Alinsky are pulling strings to make this happen, what do they gain out of it? Except higher taxes on themselves?
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    The sad fact is that having a pedophile win is better than having a Democrat in office. I'm all for a solution where a Republican gets in that isn't Moore.

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    Re: Stocks: Investors on edge over the cliff

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    I've already covered this. Government doesn't finance spending through taxation, it issues debt securities. It doesn't need to pay down its debt. In boom times it can choose to do so through various means, including taxation, but again, spending itself is not financed through taxation. This is not necessarily a drag on the economy, as I have already said.
    Like I said there are some that think there is no end to the money supply, just keep borrowing and spending into oblivion. Your right Obama is financing spending through debt at the tune of over 1 trillion a yr. and of course it doesn't have to pay down the debt just keep paying interest to China. In boom times, can you tell me when the next boom is going to happen?

    Except the budget never needs to be balanced and the debt never needs to reach 0, which is your flawed fundamental premise.
    Of course not, to a guy that thinks there is an endless supply of money you would never have to balance the budget, just keep borrowing a trillion plus a yr until eternity. How stupid of me.

    Greece and Spain are completely different scenarios than the United States, and to compare them is to show your complete ignorance of the difference between apples and oranges.
    Ignorance, complete ignorance is on your part, to think we can continue to borrow a trillion a yr for eternity is complete ignorance. To think Greece and Spain who no one will lend money too, and that we could never be in the same spot is complete ignorance.
    Liberals - Punish the Successful, Reward the Unsuccessful
    Liberals - Tax, Borrow, Spend, and Give Free Stuff
    Obama's legacy - President Donald Trump

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