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Thread: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    They've been at this level since about 2009.
    There was actually a 3% increase between 2009 and 2010. You are making stuff up, plain and simple.

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    There is a larger, more general decline in labor force participation among young adults that can't be explained by relatively small, upward recessionary swings in college enrollment.
    Hmmm. 16-to-24-year-olds have declined as a share of the non-institutionalized population as a whole, falling from 17.7% in 1990 to 16.0% in 2010. Their absolute growth is projected to be flat over the current decade meaning that their share will fall even further to 14.5%. They are also the most volatile segment of the population in terms of labor force particpation. So what we have here is a continuous decline in the population share of its most volatile cohort plus an historic economic decline and historically high numbers locked up in post-secondary education. Where is this "unexplained" part that you claim again?

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    it's slowly crawling back. let's hope that the both sides don't screw it up by letting us go over the cliff, or by enacting the changes too quickly.
    The formula to determine unemployment is extremely flawed.

    Unemployment is calculated by dividing the currant workforce by those currently receiving unemployment benefits. What about those who exacerbated their benefits or those who worked seasonal or temp positions and don't qualify for unemployment?

    Truth is unemployment should be shrinking because of the aforementioned facts.

    Those who love Obama knowingly champion deceptive statistics, and quite frankly I find it disgusting considering they damn well know they're duping people, when the truth is (which they could care less about) is that Obama's policies are a failure, they know it but spew deception. Of course they do so in an attempt to take advantage of the ignorant that don't know the truth and how unemployment is calculated..

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    The offical figure is 268,000.
    It's a figure alright, but not official by any standards. The FRB of Atlanta has a neat little tool that helps calculate the minimum growth necessary to reach desired unemployment figures. The model takes into account population growth based on last year's census data compilation, the current LPFR and the ratio of household employment vs payroll employment. In no scenario currently imaginable does a figure of 268,000 merely "break even."

    Jobs Calculator: How Many Jobs? Details behind the Jobs Calculator

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    The formula to determine unemployment is extremely flawed.

    Unemployment is calculated by dividing the currant workforce by those currently receiving unemployment benefits. What about those who exacerbated their benefits or those who worked seasonal or temp positions and don't qualify for unemployment?

    Truth is unemployment should be shrinking because of the aforementioned facts.

    Those who love Obama knowingly champion deceptive statistics, and quite frankly I find it disgusting considering they damn well know they're duping people, when the truth is (which they could care less about) is that Obama's policies are a failure, they know it but spew deception. Of course they do so in an attempt to take advantage of the ignorant that don't know the truth and how unemployment is calculated..
    i agree that the figures should be calculated differently. it's important to note that the current method has been in place since 1994.

    i'm still happy that things aren't worse, and i hope that partisan nonsense doesn't screw it up.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    And WHAT did your "268,000 to break even" refer to then?
    People leaving the labor force.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    It's a figure alright, but not official by any standards. The FRB of Atlanta has a neat little tool that helps calculate the minimum growth necessary to reach desired unemployment figures. The model takes into account population growth based on last year's census data compilation, the current LPFR and the ratio of household employment vs payroll employment.
    Ah, my figure wasn't simply trying to account for population growth.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    There was actually a 3% increase between 2009 and 2010. You are making stuff up, plain and simple.
    Among which age groups, hmm?


    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Hmmm. 16-to-24-year-olds have declined as a share of the non-institutionalized population as a whole, falling from 17.7% in 1990 to 16.0% in 2010. Their absolute growth is projected to be flat over the current decade meaning that their share will fall even further to 14.5%. They are also the most volatile segment of the population in terms of labor force particpation. So what we have here is a continuous decline in the population share of its most volatile cohort plus an historic economic decline and historically high numbers locked up in post-secondary education. Where is this "unexplained" part that you claim again?
    Now you're catching up. You did read the claim I was responding to, did you not?

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    The formula to determine unemployment is extremely flawed.

    Unemployment is calculated by dividing the currant workforce by those currently receiving unemployment benefits. What about those who exacerbated their benefits or those who worked seasonal or temp positions and don't qualify for unemployment?
    Oddly enough, I don't recall Conservatives ever lodging any such complaints during any of the years between 1994 and 2010, even though the Bureau of Labor Statistics employed the same methods for collecting unemployment data as they do now amid the whining from the right??


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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    The formula to determine unemployment is extremely flawed.
    It isn't a formula. It's a tabulation of the survey responses received from about 60,000 households each month.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    Unemployment is calculated by dividing the currant workforce by those currently receiving unemployment benefits.
    Don't quit your day job. The only role that the number of people receiving UI benefits plays is a tiny one in calculating revised seasonal adjustment factors at the end of each year. Otherwise, the number doesn't enter into the process at all.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    i agree that the figures should be calculated differently. it's important to note that the current method has been in place since 1994.
    The methodology has been in place since 1940. All that has changed since then is that the survey questions have been sharpened and expanded in order to collect better and broader versions of the same data as always. The BLS data are regarded everywhere as being the best unemployment numbers on the planet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    i'm still happy that things aren't worse, and i hope that partisan nonsense doesn't screw it up.
    The people who work on all national economic data are highly qualified and fiercely independent career civil servants. They have gone through many Presidents and Congresses already and will go through many more. There are no partisan influences on their work, and if any were to arise, it would be an instant scandal.

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