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Thread: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Not while Reagan was president, they didn't. Until 1994, the U3 measured: U-3 (1993): Unemployed persons aged 25 and older, as a percent of the civilian labor force aged 25 and older (the unemployment rate for persons 25 years and older).
    No, that was one of Julius Shiskin's back-of-an-envelope, trial balloon, alternative measures of labor underutilization that he had begun estimating from sparse and barely available data in the mid-1970's. His U-1 to U-7 notes and numbers were published intermittently as items under study (much as CPI-E currently is) and generally received positive response from the public. With some survey redesigns identified that would lead to better data, the prospect of making alternative measures official was studied for several years in the early 1990's. In the end, Shiskin's U-3 (the one you cite) and U-4 were rejected with U-3 instead becoming the headline rate. Shiskin's U-3 died because age was seen as a personal variable, not an economic one. With some considerable modifications, the other five indexes were retained, and the new official alternative measures first appeared in The Employment Situation in 1996. The data for the population aged 25 and over are of course produced and published. They are a regular part of each month's Table A-10. But they are not and have never been an official U-3.
    Last edited by Cardinal Fang; 12-09-12 at 10:05 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    No, that was one of Julius Shiskin's back-of-an-envelope, trial balloon, alternative measures of labor underutilization that he had begun estimating from sparse and barely available data in the mid-1970's. His U-1 to U-7 notes and numbers were published intermittently as items under study (much as CPI-E currently is) and generally received positive response from the public. With some survey redesigns identified that would lead to better data, the prospect of making alternative measures official was studied for several years in the early 1990's. In the end, Shiskin's U-3 (the one you cite) and U-4 were rejected with U-3 instead becoming the headline rate. Shiskin's U-3 died because age was seen as a personal variable, not an economic one. With some considerable modifications, the other five indexes were retained, and the new official alternative measures first appeared in The Employment Situation in 1996. The data for the population aged 25 and over are of course produced and published. They are a regular part of each month's Table A-10. But they are not and have never been an official U-3.
    That's very interesting. I didn't realize that. However, the document continues (See the appendix at the end of the document) ...

    APPENDIX: Impact of the CPS redesign on the original indicators, U-1 through U-7

    Effects on indicator U-3, the number of unemployed persons aged 25 and older, as a percent of the civilian labor force aged 25 and older (the unemployment rate for persons 25 and older).

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    The official figure is around 108k, unless you're "keeping score at home."
    The offical figure is 268,000.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    The main driver of that phenomena being the demand for higher education of some sort in high paying employment fields, rather than a sudden onset of slothfullness as some claim.
    Not true. College enrollment fell last year for the first time in 15 years.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    The offical figure is 268,000.
    Assuming this goes back to the number of jobs required to "keep up" with population growth, there is no official number, a fact that the right-wing makes ample use of in complaining that whatever the the increase in the number of jobs, it is not enough. There is general agreement that whatever the number is, it is falling and will continue to do so, but estimating its level requires a lot more math than what anyone has put up in this thread or is likely to.

    As for the 268,000 number above, I would guess that you could find more people believing that the number is now below 100,000 than you could find to support that sort of notion.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Not true. College enrollment fell last year for the first time in 15 years.
    The decline was one-sixth of 1%. Total enrollment remains at historically high levels due to the increasing returns that accrue to investment in education. The driver of difficuty in finding suitable employment has begun to dissipate.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    That's very interesting. I didn't realize that. However, the document continues (See the appendix at the end of the document) ...
    I'm familiar with the appendix to that document. I read it perhaps 15 years ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Effects on indicator U-3, the number of unemployed persons aged 25 and older, as a percent of the civilian labor force aged 25 and older (the unemployment rate for persons 25 and older).
    It is still talking about refinements to the off-line measures. Shiskin had at first used "head of household" for this index, but they were getting gender bias wherein any male would be cited as the head of household even if a female was the principal bread-winner. So they scapped that idea and substituted the over-25 criterion, but in the end, they scrapped that as well. In any case, this was all long after Reagan. Unemployment numbers in the 1980's were based on a minimum age of 16.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Assuming this goes back to the number of jobs required to "keep up" with population growth, there is no official number,
    Nope, never said anything about population growth.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Total enrollment remains at historically high levels due to the increasing returns that accrue to investment in education. The driver of difficuty in finding suitable employment has begun to dissipate.
    They've been at this level since about 2009. There is a larger, more general decline in labor force participation among young adults that can't be explained by relatively small, upward recessionary swings in college enrollment.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Nope, never said anything about population growth.
    And WHAT did your "268,000 to break even" refer to then?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Should be "U.S. Adds 146,000 Jobs - 122,000 fewer than the required 268,000 to break even"

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