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Thread: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Quote Originally Posted by SgtRock View Post
    How do you know how many munitions have been mixed. Are you a member of the SIS, CIA etc? My job in the military involved defense from chemical weapon attacks. You have to realize that some of these weapons are already in highly populated areas. One of the characteristics of GB is its low persistance time. This allows occupation of areas where the chemical has been deployed in a relitivly short time, approximatley 1 to 8 hours depending on terrain,wind and tempeture. However GB is toxic in a very low doses. It can be delivered in many ways from land mines to missles. Like I said before a single artillery round can kill thousands.
    Well we know they haven't mixed a huge amount, because we have a fair approximation of how much of the stockpile has been moved, and how many delivery systems they have in place. Most reports and open source analysis indicates that either a few hundred shells and a few score bombs at most have been readied. Also you don't put too many together, because once you put them in shells (not warheads) the risk of membrane break increases and over a relatively short time the gases will become 'inert' and the shell becomes unusable, something like 40-80 days.

    Moreover a single artillery round cannot kill thousands, most likely it can if properly placed kill a few score people. The amount of agent you have in a shell is not going to be huge, and its going to diminish dramatically with dispersal, and as you mentioned it has a low persistence period. Look at Halabja, the Iraqi's used everything from Sarin to VX in huge quantities, but they didn't bother with chemical shelling, they used low flying air power for mass aerial dispersal which is the only effective way to get a large kill zone for most wielders of chemical weapons. So the Iraqi's launched something on the order of 14-20 successive waves of aerial bombardments, using planes and helicopters to dump literally tons of gas during the bombardment, perhaps/probably hundreds of tons.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Quote Originally Posted by SgtRock View Post
    You sound as if you know the man personally. You are a member of the SIS arn't you? lol... Well I hope you are right. Its hard to be optimistic when it comes to a man who is killing his own people.
    The SIS? Is that MI6? But I'm not being optimistic, I'm just trying to lay out how I see things happening and I don't view it positively by any means.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Just to give another perspective Iraq used about 2,500-3,000 tons of synthesized chemical gases during the war, in tens of thousands of shells and bombs. Over the roughly eight years of deployment, most of which came towards the end, some 10,000-20,000 Iranian soldiers were reported killed. Chemical warfare is terrifying, and extremely deadly, but it requires layered and heavy use to achieve mass casualties and effects, and for unsophisticated regimes an ample amount of luck.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Well we know they haven't mixed a huge amount, because we have a fair approximation of how much of the stockpile has been moved, and how many delivery systems they have in place. Most reports and open source analysis indicates that either a few hundred shells and a few score bombs at most have been readied. Also you don't put too many together, because once you put them in shells (not warheads) the risk of membrane break increases and over a relatively short time the gases will become 'inert' and the shell becomes unusable, something like 40-80 days.

    Moreover a single artillery round cannot kill thousands, most likely it can if properly placed kill a few score people. The amount of agent you have in a shell is not going to be huge, and its going to diminish dramatically with dispersal, and as you mentioned it has a low persistence period. Look at Halabja, the Iraqi's used everything from Sarin to VX in huge quantities, but they didn't bother with chemical shelling, they used low flying air power for mass aerial dispersal which is the only effective way to get a large kill zone for most wielders of chemical weapons. So the Iraqi's launched something on the order of 14-20 successive waves of aerial bombardments, using planes and helicopters to dump literally tons of gas during the bombardment, perhaps/probably hundreds of tons.

    I disagree if the conditions are right 1 artillery shell of Sarin could kill thousands. Sarin is 30 times more effective than phosgene and 190 times more than chlorine. I work with CL2 at one of the largest water treatment facilities in the States. I know how deadly chlorine gas is. Sarin has a CT-50 of 100. Because of its extreme potency, sarin is lethal to 50 percent of exposed individuals at doses of 100 to 500 mg across the skin, or 50–100 mg/min/m3 by inhalation. Its extremely nasty stuff.
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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Quote Originally Posted by SgtRock View Post
    I disagree if the conditions are right 1 artillery shell of Sarin could kill thousands. Sarin is 30 times more effective than phosgene and 190 times more than chlorine. I work with CL2 at one of the largest water treatment facilities in the States. I know how deadly chlorine gas is. Sarin has a CT-50 of 100. Because of its extreme potency, sarin is lethal to 50 percent of exposed individuals at doses of 100 to 500 mg across the skin, or 50–100 mg/min/m3 by inhalation. Its extremely nasty stuff.
    It isn't about lethality, you are talking about the toxicity of gases under laboratory conditions. In reality the utilization of chemical weapons on a mass scale to inflict mass casualties is difficult and consumes large amounts of chemical stockpiles to effect it. Again you can look to Iraq (and Iranian counter strikes) as excellent examples of this. It should tell you something that the Iraqi's had to dump 50 tons of VX at Halabja on conjunction with everything else they used, AND with an aerosol dispersal mixed with low flying bombardment to get the casualties they did. A single shell of Sarin fired into a neighborhood in Aleppo would kill a few dozen people if that, it might kill less depending on circumstances.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    I'm not saying Assad couldn't if he wanted to, go for a Halabja redux, but it would be a more coordinated and large scale attack. You'd probably have to use more weapons than they have allegedly prepared. At this stage it is a terror weapon, useful primarily for ostensible its strategic value.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Quote Originally Posted by SgtRock View Post
    Secretary Clinton drew the redline. Once the chemicals are mixed if we attempt to destroy them Sarin will be released and thousands will die. I am affraid it is to late to do much of anything about this now. This is not good. The Syrians next move will most likely be to move these weapons to populated areas. Some of them are already in populated areas. If you attempt to take them out it will result in releasing the Sarin. The time to act has passed. The time to pray is upon us.
    If we strike with FAE weapons most of the agent will be burned up. There will be more collateral damage from the strike than there will be from the release of the agent.

    And, while we're at it; didn't Obama swear up, down and sideways that if Assad made a move with the NBC weapons he would kick som ass?
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    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    The thing with Chemical Munitions.

    They are usually 'MIXED' during deployment. The motion of the round after being fired mixes the chemical components allowing them to be activated....

    This way chemical munitions can be stockpiled without having to worry about a short shelf-life.
    "I condemn the ideology of White Supremacy and Nazism. They are thugs, criminals, and repugnant, and are against what I believe to be "The American Way" "
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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    As a former CBRN NCO who is working on going back active duty as we speak.... this both terrifies and excites me......
    "I condemn the ideology of White Supremacy and Nazism. They are thugs, criminals, and repugnant, and are against what I believe to be "The American Way" "
    Thus my obligatory condemnation of White supremacy will now be in every post, lest I be accused of supporting it because I didn't mention it specifically every time I post.

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    Re: Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

    Deja vu..... another Colin Powell at the UN moment...
    PeteEU

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