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Thread: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Paralogic View Post
    All oil produced anywhere on the planet will always go in a global pool to be auctioned off to the highest bidder, much like what is happening now.

    The only way US oil production can be directly and immediately linked to the US economy is if the US oil production is nationalized, similar to what Venezuela is doing.
    Yeah? Hey, who is going to be pulling all that oil out of the ground, anywho? Who's going to be paying taxes on it? Does shipping cost anything?

    The idea that having an oil boom in your back yard doesn't boost your economy because the final product is subject to laws of supply and demand is a rather ridiculous definition of "benefit".

    Oh wait. There is one way to screw it up. Nationalize it. Just like Venezuela did, which is why they went into an energy crisis.

    The funny thing with this situation is that if you explain this to "drill, baby, drill" proponents, they will think you are the devil incarnate for wanting to nationalize anything, much less an oil corporation. They believe this, while hoping for lower prices at the gas pump at the same time, which is kind of schizophrenic.
    Any time you significantly increase supply, you relatively lower price.

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by spud_meister View Post
    Problem with things like fracking is any ecological damage doesn't end where your land does. If you pollute the water table, and there's farms that share the water table with your mining site, things will go worse for them.

    If we want jobs, we need to be like China.

    China doesn't care about the pollution issue.

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Any time you significantly increase supply, you relatively lower price.
    Not if the increase in supply does not directly affect the market of where you live.

    If it did, the relative significant increase in US oil production in the past several years would have made a similar significant impact in lowering US gas pump prices, and they haven't.

    The US can be the No 1 oil producer tomorrow, and the price at the pump can be increasing at a high rate over the next decade.

    If the US controls its own oil production like Venezuela or several other oil producers in the M. E., then you'll see lower price at the pump for sure. If not, the price at the pump will depend on global markets not on the increase in the US oil production.
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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Paralogic View Post
    Not if the increase in supply does not directly affect the market of where you live.
    except that, as you note, we live in a global market. So that is a description that perhaps is accurate for... Burma, North Korea, and perhaps some of the darker jungles of Africa or the highest steppes of nepal.

    If it did, the relative significant increase in US oil production in the past several years would have made a similar significant impact in lowering US gas pump prices, and they haven't.
    You are confusing relative reduction with nominal deduction.

    The US can be the No 1 oil producer tomorrow, and the price at the pump can be increasing at a high rate over the next decade.
    no, it would be increasing at a lower rate, especially given that demand from China is going to be relatively decreasing in the next few years.

    If the US controls its own oil production like Venezuela or several other oil producers in the M. E., then you'll see lower price at the pump for sure.
    If so, then you will see lower prices on pumps that have no gasoline. Shortages are the inevitable result of nationalization and price controls. That is what happened in Venezuela, whom you hold up as some kind of horrid model.

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by johnny rebson
    If we want jobs, we need to be like China.

    China doesn't care about the pollution issue.
    Actually, jobs aren't all that easy to come by in China (I have a friend who lives there). And the pollution is really bad; it's to the point that vast swathes of the country are going to be uninhabitable in a couple of decades. Calling China's economy a success is like pointing the nose of an airplane straight downward, pushing the throttle to full, shooting the pilot in the head, and calling it flying.

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    You know, I think the U.S. is currently the third largest producer in the world. We're not too far behind either Saudi Arabia or Russia. So a move to the largest producer wouldn't be so huge as perhaps some folks are claiming...

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Paralogic View Post
    All oil produced anywhere on the planet will always go in a global pool to be auctioned off to the highest bidder, much like what is happening now.

    The only way US oil production can be directly and immediately linked to the US economy is if the US oil production is nationalized, similar to what Venezuela is doing.

    The funny thing with this situation is that if you explain this to "drill, baby, drill" proponents, they will think you are the devil incarnate for wanting to nationalize anything, much less an oil corporation. They believe this, while hoping for lower prices at the gas pump at the same time, which is kind of schizophrenic.
    In addition to what cpwill pointed out...
    Natural Gas is a much more local commodity than oil.
    But even in oil, Brent and WTI - Brent spread over WTI widens to year-high - FT.com

    In the gas of NG, it's a far larger spread/problem. In fact, while Europe pays the Russia a fat price, there's a Glut of NG in North America, historic low prices, and much of production is shut in and undrilled due to poor Local demand.
    Last edited by mbig; 11-21-12 at 01:46 PM.
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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Oil demand dropped about 20-30% right at the end of the GWShiiteForBrains administration and demand hasn't returned even yet and the price did what? I didn't hear what you said, And the price did what? Let me see now, demand drops, price drops. NO! Supply increases and price does what? Well if demand dropped 20-30% then we were oversupplied by that same amount and the prices did what? They went up.. Tell me more about that supply and demand. Now I understand supply and demand so a very clever explanation is required. Nothing hypothetical because we are talking a simple supply and demand issue as you say. Or not! Maybe some other factor/force will have to be acknowledged. Why not give it a try?

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    Oil demand dropped about 20-30% right at the end of the GWShiiteForBrains administration and demand hasn't returned even yet and the price did what?
    It must be nice to have an "other" that represents the evil people and that everything can be blamed on. Then again, not really my bag.

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    Re: Shale Boom to Turn U.S. Into World's Largest Oil Producer, Watchdog Says

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    Oil demand dropped about 20-30% right at the end of the GWShiiteForBrains administration and demand hasn't returned even yet and the price did what? I didn't hear what you said, And the price did what? Let me see now, demand drops, price drops. NO! Supply increases and price does what? Well if demand dropped 20-30% then we were oversupplied by that same amount and the prices did what? They went up.. Tell me more about that supply and demand. Now I understand supply and demand so a very clever explanation is required. Nothing hypothetical because we are talking a simple supply and demand issue as you say. Or not! Maybe some other factor/force will have to be acknowledged. Why not give it a try?
    Simple. Supply and demand still drive the market, but in the case of oil being traded on the market as a future, coupled with the ability to trade without actually placing any monetary stake during the trade, has caused artificial spikes.
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