Italian scientists convicted of manslaughter for not predicting earthquake

Guy Incognito said:

I don't know and neither do you. Why are you jumping to conclusions?

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I'm not. You said you were in favor of punishing scientists for human consequences. I was just seeing if you had any of those consequences and had quantified them in any meaningful way. The answer to that is no, you did not. So let's talk about not jumping to conclusions then. Perhaps we shouldn't be in favor of punishing scientists and engineers less you have evidence that they did something wrong and against any knowledge they had at the time, hmmm?

Peter Grimm said:

Well, you inexplicably tried to blame this mess on what you seem to call the creationists lack of knowledge, whereas the only people whose knowledge failed them were the geologists in question.

In your own words, they were unable to predict the earthquake.

As I said, the geologists didn't know enough geology to be useful.

Your post was rather ironic.

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Lol, here is why you fail to understand what I even said: I said the general populace, regardless of it's religious ideas is incredibly ignorant when it comes to understanding science. Now, science didn't fail anything because it's not possible to predict earthquakes anymore than you can predict how many flowers will bloom in a year. It's not science that failed them, it's their understanding of science that did.

Hatuey said:

Lol, here is why you fail to understand what I even said: I said the general populace, regardless of it's religious ideas is incredibly ignorant when it comes to understanding science. Now, science didn't fail anything because it's not possible to predict earthquakes anymore than you can predict how many flowers will bloom in a year. It's not science that failed them, it's their understanding of science that did.

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Yes and no. It isn't the science that failed them, nor is it the science these scientists are on trial for - it's the risk assessment. That was the failure. And since these scientists were the risk assessment panel for the government.

Again, don't think the charge meets the bogus assessment. However, everyone on the panel who didn't dissent should have been out of a job.

Jonsa said:

did I miss some important breakthru in seismology that enables us to now predict with specificity when large earthquakes are going to occur?
If so, I suggest they get their butts over to Yellowstone and the San Andreas faults posthaste.

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No, you did not. I live in an earthquake prone area and they have been predicting the next 'big one' for 50 years. So, I guess they won't be faulted wen it happens. The Mid America Remote Sensing Center is only about 25 miles away from me, and that's about as good as it gets. We have small quakes all the time. The last 'big one' was in the 1800s - the Mississippi river ran backward for 3 days, Indian tribes were buried alive, and Reelfoot lake was formed. Everyone here is advised to keep some supplies, a tent, water, a way to cook, etc., because we are on the New Madrid fault line, and it WILL happen again.

clownboy said:

Yes and no. It isn't the science that failed them, nor is it the science these scientists are on trial for - it's the risk assessment. That was the failure. And since these scientists were the risk assessment panel for the government.

Again, don't think the charge meets the bogus assessment. However, everyone on the panel who didn't dissent should have been out of a job.

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About all you can to do predict an earthquake is to say one is coming, like they have been doing here for 50 years. Nailing the scientists is what happens when a population expects cradle to grave protection from everything.

Maenad said:

No, you did not. I live in an earthquake prone area and they have been predicting the next 'big one' for 50 years. So, I guess they won't be faulted wen it happens. The Mid America Remote Sensing Center is only about 25 miles away from me, and that's about as good as it gets. We have small quakes all the time. The last 'big one' was in the 1800s - the Mississippi river ran backward for 3 days, Indian tribes were buried alive, and Reelfoot lake was formed. Everyone here is advised to keep some supplies, a tent, water, a way to cook, etc., because we are on the New Madrid fault line, and it WILL happen again.

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Just to let you know, you had a fairly major one in 1968 as well.

clownboy said:

Just to let you know, you had a fairly major one in 1968 as well.

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Yes, I remember it well. I was 20 and standing on my deck. It lasted just a few seconds, nothing fell down, and no one was killed.

Maenad said:

About all you can to do predict an earthquake is to say one is coming, like they have been doing here for 50 years. Nailing the scientists is what happens when a population expects cradle to grave protection from everything.

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No, that's not the issue here. Again, it was a government risk assessment panel that got it wrong. It's different here in the US. Geologists won't say one way or the other, even when pressed to give an assessment, without requiring any statement be bracketted by huge disclaimers.

clownboy said:

No, that's not the issue here. Again, it was a government risk assessment panel that got it wrong. It's different here in the US. Geologists won't say one way or the other, even when pressed to give an assessment, without requiring any statement be bracketted by huge disclaimers.

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Well, they've been 'making statements' here about 'the big one' for 50 years. Right now, at this minute, I could get out of my house and live in the out of doors for several days...much longer than needed for a rescue.

clownboy said:

Yes and no. It isn't the science that failed them, nor is it the science these scientists are on trial for - it's the risk assessment. That was the failure. And since these scientists were the risk assessment panel for the government.

Again, don't think the charge meets the bogus assessment. However, everyone on the panel who didn't dissent should have been out of a job.

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Unless these scientists said that there was a 0% chance of a major earthquake, an earthquake could have occurred and the scientists still could have been correct. Risk assesser are not seers. They cannot see the future. Their job is to assess risk, and present their findings to the public. They can recommend a course of action, but it is the responsibility of their audience to weigh the costs and risks and decide upon a course of action. Because earthquakes are unpredictable, the existence of one does not prove that the scientists were even wrong let alone criminally negligent. This was a stupid ruling that will probably get overturned. The case is probably little more than people lashing out against an act of god by trying to place the blame for the death of their loved ones on flesh and blood people who can be punished. You can't make a scapegoat out of a fault-line.

clownboy said:

An element that's being ignored here is that these are government scientists, employed by the government to do risk assessment. People, for right or wrong, trusted the government when they said it'd be okay/safe, the government was going off the recommendations of their own risk assessment panel. The folks on the panel got it wrong and thus the government left it's people at increased risk while saying things would be okay.

There was more than your typical scientitist's duty to this government risk assessment panel. And the government had a higher duty to be more aware and communicate as well.

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In what ridiculous universe do you live in where a scientist's duties include precognition? Where do you get the idea that anybody said "this is safe don't worry about earthquakes ever?"

Deuce said:

In what ridiculous universe do you live in where a scientist's duties include precognition?

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The same ridiculous world you live in, considering that you constantly are claiming that scientists can predict the future about global warming. Maybe you should apply some of the amazing insights you have in this thread to all those global warming threads you are constantly whining in.

You guys kidding? I'm suing the **** outa the local weatherdude here because he failed to predict rain on me and my wife's wedding day! HIS forecast called for clear skies. So I booked an outdoor event. It rained. LAWSUIT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Guy Incognito said:

The same ridiculous world you live in, considering that you constantly are claiming that scientists can predict the future about global warming. Maybe you should apply some of the amazing insights you have in this thread to all those global warming threads you are constantly whining in.

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If you can't tell the difference between predicting average global temperatures and potential effects on general regions, and making criminal convictions for inaccurately predicting specific earthquakes hitting specific towns, I don't know what to tell you.