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Thread: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    I just read an article on my cell phone (trying to find it online) that was published on Thursday and said the jobs report was expected to show an increase of 110k jobs and a stationary unemployment rate of 8.1%. I'm curious as to how 4k jobs was enough to drop unemployment from 8.1% to 7.8%.
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    I just read an article on my cell phone (trying to find it online) that was published on Thursday and said the jobs report was expected to show an increase of 110k jobs and a stationary unemployment rate of 8.1%. I'm curious as to how 4k jobs was enough to drop unemployment from 8.1% to 7.8%.
    that's a good question.


    So why are these numbers giving us seemingly contradictory evidence? The first thing one must understand is that these two numbers are drawn from two different surveys. The new jobs number is rendered from the establishment survey, whereby the Labor Department surveys employers to determine how many new jobs they’ve added. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, is determined by a survey of households, in which the government asks individuals whether or not they and those in their household have jobs. So, the first reason why these two numbers appear to be at odds is that they are pulled from different estimates, each with its own margin of error.

    Second, when the Labor Department releases its estimate for each month, it actually releases revised estimates for the previous two months — and the job market in July and August was apparently healthier than we had previously thought. The Labor Department revised job gains in those months from +96,000 and +142,000 to +141,000 and +181,000, respectively. In addition, a recent yearly revision by the Labor Department showed that job growth between April of 2011 and March of 2012 was much more significant than we thought. With these revisions in mind, the drop in the unemployment rate makes more sense.
    Read more: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8% But Path to Recovery is Murkier | Business | TIME.com

    Edit: I'd like to point out...Americans knew this collectively in a way. They were much more optimisitic about the economy than the numbers would support. American people were right, numbers were too low.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    I just read an article on my cell phone (trying to find it online) that was published on Thursday and said the jobs report was expected to show an increase of 110k jobs and a stationary unemployment rate of 8.1%. I'm curious as to how 4k jobs was enough to drop unemployment from 8.1% to 7.8%.
    I figure it has to do with the increasing numbers of people dropping out of the workforce entirely, and some of the part-time jobs created.
    "God is the name by which I designate all things which cross my path violently and recklessly, all things which alter my plans and intentions, and change the course of my life, for better or for worse."
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    That clears up some of the confusion I had. Thank you.
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Don't forget to add in the 183k increase in folks having two jobs.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Desperate manipulation of numbers at its finest.

    Plus, any jobs improvement at this point is from the private sector anticipating a change in the presidency in the offing.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Desperate manipulation of numbers at its finest.

    Plus, any jobs improvement at this point is from the private sector anticipating a change in the presidency in the offing.
    More likely its retail beefing up staff for the coming holiday season. They start putting out Christmas stuff a few weeks ago.
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Quote Originally Posted by lizzie View Post
    I figure it has to do with the increasing numbers of people dropping out of the workforce entirely, and some of the part-time jobs created.
    Yep, a bunch of recent graduates have given up and gone back to college for more schooling.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    More likely its retail beefing up staff for the coming holiday season. They start putting out Christmas stuff a few weeks ago.
    But the numbers are adjusted for the seasonal work. Now, if retails are front loading when the norm doesn't reflect that, then we would see a more lackluster performance the next two months.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 7.8%; 114,000 Jobs Added

    This kind of news has been predicted for months, that the labor dept would come out with a unemployment figure ridiculously low to help the President. And voila, here it is right on cue.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

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