Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets - US Business Blog - CNBC

Economists expect employers added 113,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate edged up to 8.2 percent from August's 8.1 percent, according to a Reuters survey. Friday’s report will be the second-to-last before the November election.

“Because of [this jobs report’s] juxtaposition to election, there will be significant political ramifications, perhaps more so than for the market,” said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. "Politically, anything that pushes the cause of the Romney camp forward could have a positive effect on the market."

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RIP Hope and Change

Apparently CNBC didn't get the memo that puts the number at 7.8% for now. I have no doubt that when the numbers are finalized they will go up to your number, but for now CNBC isn't into this week's spin cycle...

Even MSNBC's morning folks say that there's something wrong here.

Grim17 said:

Even MSNBC's morning folks say that there's something wrong here.

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Well gee if that brain trust can't figure it out must be wrong.

the numbers for sure make no sense...when I first saw that today I was scratching my head....someone either is fudging numbers or made a really bad arithmetic error..heck wht MSNBC counter punches it then you know something is really not right.

Since the number of jobs created doesn't even keep up with population growth, why in the world would anyone doubt that unemployment went down nearly half a point?

pbrauer said:

BLS Employment Situation Summary

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Meet the Obama Donors at the BLS

Diogenes said:

Apparently CNBC didn't get the memo that puts the number at 7.8% for now. I have no doubt that when the numbers are finalized they will go up to your number, but for now CNBC isn't into this week's spin cycle...

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Look at the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate from Gallop. It's 8.1%. 1.3% GDP revised down growth and the Economy created a million full time jobs last month? Does not pass the laugh test.

Diogenes said:

Meet the Obama Donors at the BLS

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1234567890

pbrauer said:

BLS Employment Situation Summary

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Wait so you're telling me Part Time Jobs at Mcdonald's are really full time jobs and everything is awesome? In an economy that's been downgraded to 1.3% GDP with a LFPR that's at it's lowest point in decades?

Doesn't pass the laugh test. You people have turned from Hope and Change to Hopeless

Grim17 said:

Since the number of jobs created doesn't even keep up with population growth, why in the world would anyone doubt that unemployment went down nearly half a point?

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850,000 new jobs (if that is true) in one month is far above the population growth.

For many months I have been befuddled by the job growth that two private companies have been reporting. They have often been reporting far more job growth than the gov figures do. While I do think that the gov figures sound suspecious and should be investigated, it's not outside of the real of possibility that the private companies who track this have been correct, and that the the gov figures, for whatever reason, just now caught up. I wouldn't just assume that they are incorrect or that any hanki-panki has been going on.

It's actually quite unfortunate for the prez that last months figures are so odd and cast suspicion on him, surely he is not so stupid to have had anything to do with that...or is he? I believe that if I was the prez, and if it was possible for me to have put pressure on whoever it is that tracks unemployment, I would have probably been "suggesting" to them that unemployment might drop 1/10th of a point each month for the past year, not 6/10ths in one month, I mean if one is going to make up a lie, it might as well be a believable lie.

It's going to be very interesting to see what next months numbers are going to look like, wouldn't they be annouced just a day or two before the election?

Bronson said:

Look at the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate from Gallop. It's 8.1%. 1.3% GDP revised down growth and the Economy created a million full time jobs last month? Does not pass the laugh test.

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Those rates are pretty close to what the federal gov figures are.

Bronson said:

Wait so you're telling me Part Time Jobs at Mcdonald's are really full time jobs and everything is awesome? In an economy that's been downgraded to 1.3% GDP with a LFPR that's at it's lowest point in decades?

Doesn't pass the laugh test. You people have turned from Hope and Change to Hopeless

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Show me where I stated that bull****. :coffeepap

Employment increased by 873,000 in September. The civilian labor force increased by 418,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8%. The right-wing has implicit faith when the numbers move in the other direction, but now? It seems to me that the posts of the right-wing are nothing but hollow shells under all circumstances.

Anyone who thinks this is some kind of grand conspiracy to help Obama get reelected really needs to have his head examined. This is the silliest conspiracy theory I've heard in a while. The truth is that the unemployment rate doesn't always move exactly in tandem with the job creation rate...it's influenced by other factors too, such as the number of people entering the work force, the number of people leaving the work force, the number of discouraged workers who stop looking, revisions from previous months, etc. So it's really not that unheard of for unemployment to go down, even if the job creation numbers are subpar (or for unemployment to go up even if the job creation numbers look pretty good).

In any case, you all don't need to lose sleep that this is going to somehow unfairly influence people to vote for Obama. To the extent that voters blame or reward the president for the economy, it's mostly based on their own perceptions of the economy...not what the BLS thinks. Most voters are not combing through monthly jobs reports for evidence that the economy is getting better or worse...they just look at their own communities and make their own judgments. So if the BLS numbers are radically different than the reality, you need not worry too much.

Cardinal Fang said:

Employment increased by 873,000 in September. The civilian labor force increased by 418,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8%. The right-wing has implicit faith when the numbers move in the other direction, but now? It seems to me that the posts of the right-wing are nothing but hollow shells under all circumstances.

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We have a GDP of 1.3% and you say Obama created 873,000 jobs in September. The only true picture of the economy is the GDP number, and it is pathetic at best. Unemployment numbers are done by two different surveys and of course they can be pushed and pulled as you want the results. Hell Obama tried to cover up the Libya terrorist slaughter of our citizens on US land, and blew it off and went to Las Vegas to campaign as nothing happened.

Kandahar said:

Anyone who thinks this is some kind of grand conspiracy to help Obama get reelected really needs to have his head examined. This is the silliest conspiracy theory I've heard in a while.

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Why because you think Democrats are not capable of distorting the truth. Christ look at all the lies by Obama against Romney and you say he would not conspire to rig the unemployment results. That is the silliest thing I've ever heard.

The truth is that the unemployment rate doesn't always move exactly in tandem with the job creation rate...it's influenced by other factors too, such as the number of people entering the work force, the number of people leaving the work force, the number of discouraged workers who stop looking, revisions from previous months, etc. So it's really not that unheard of for unemployment to go down, even if the job creation numbers are subpar (or for unemployment to go up even if the job creation numbers look pretty good).

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The real number to tell us how the economy is doing is the GDP number and it is at 1.3% which is pathetic at best. And it does not translate to bringing down the unemployment rate form 8.1% to 7.8

In any case, you all don't need to lose sleep that this is going to somehow unfairly influence people to vote for Obama. To the extent that voters blame or reward the president for the economy, it's mostly based on their own perceptions of the economy...not what the BLS thinks. Most voters are not combing through monthly jobs reports for evidence that the economy is getting better or worse...they just look at their own communities and make their own judgments. So if the BLS numbers are radically different than the reality, you need not worry too much.

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This I agree with. However you keep telling people things are getting better yet in reality they are not, they begin to believe you. Take the black community with unemployment at 14%, they don't care they are going to vote for Obama anyway. Now why do you suppose that is?

imagep said:

For many months I have been befuddled by the job growth that two private companies have been reporting. They have often been reporting far more job growth than the gov figures do. While I do think that the gov figures sound suspecious and should be investigated, it's not outside of the real of possibility that the private companies who track this have been correct, and that the the gov figures, for whatever reason, just now caught up. I wouldn't just assume that they are incorrect or that any hanki-panki has been going on.

It's actually quite unfortunate for the prez that last months figures are so odd and cast suspicion on him, surely he is not so stupid to have had anything to do with that...or is he? I believe that if I was the prez, and if it was possible for me to have put pressure on whoever it is that tracks unemployment, I would have probably been "suggesting" to them that unemployment might drop 1/10th of a point each month for the past year, not 6/10ths in one month, I mean if one is going to make up a lie, it might as well be a believable lie.

It's going to be very interesting to see what next months numbers are going to look like, wouldn't they be annouced just a day or two before the election?

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Since he appointed the Commissioner of the DOL (in April, I believe), I could picture a friendly phone call from an aid that said, "Please be sure to double check the unemployment stats. It would mean a lot to the President." I trust nothing. From either side of the aisle.

Born Free said:

Why because you think Democrats are not capable of distorting the truth.

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Because the BLS is not an arm of the Democratic Party, regardless of who is the president. It's mostly just non-political bureaucrats and statisticians.

Christ look at all the lies by Obama against Romney and you say he would not conspire to rig the unemployment results. That is the silliest thing I've ever heard.

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The BLS is an independent agency that is designed specifically to NOT be influenced by the president. Furthermore, the risk of meddling with the numbers (e.g. getting caught) is far greater than the reward (e.g. avoiding a couple days of negative headlines). And if Obama was somehow going to mess with the numbers, he could have given himself a better score than 114,000.

The real number to tell us how the economy is doing is the GDP number and it is at 1.3% which is pathetic at best. And it does not translate to bringing down the unemployment rate form 8.1% to 7.8

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The unemployment rate also does not move in perfect tandem with GDP. There are other factors that influence the unemployment rate.

This I agree with. However you keep telling people things are getting better yet in reality they are not, they begin to believe you. Take the black community with unemployment at 14%, they don't care they are going to vote for Obama anyway. Now why do you suppose that is?

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Probably because they don't blame Obama for that.

Kandahar said:

Anyone who thinks this is some kind of grand conspiracy to help Obama get reelected really needs to have his head examined. This is the silliest conspiracy theory I've heard in a while. The truth is that the unemployment rate doesn't always move exactly in tandem with the job creation rate...it's influenced by other factors too, such as the number of people entering the work force, the number of people leaving the work force, the number of discouraged workers who stop looking, revisions from previous months, etc. So it's really not that unheard of for unemployment to go down, even if the job creation numbers are subpar (or for unemployment to go up even if the job creation numbers look pretty good).

In any case, you all don't need to lose sleep that this is going to somehow unfairly influence people to vote for Obama. To the extent that voters blame or reward the president for the economy, it's mostly based on their own perceptions of the economy...not what the BLS thinks. Most voters are not combing through monthly jobs reports for evidence that the economy is getting better or worse...they just look at their own communities and make their own judgments. So if the BLS numbers are radically different than the reality, you need not worry too much.

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Thank you! Someone finally adds some perspective to the unemployment rate discussion (not to mention common sense).

Born Free said:

We have a GDP of 1.3% and you say Obama created 873,000 jobs in September.

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Well, the 1.3 GDP number is for the second quarter. That's April-May-June, I would suppose that you knew. September is not actually any of those months. In September, employment increased by 873,000. Not because I say so. Because what are recognized as the best methodologies in the world say so. Right-wingers LOVE those methodologies when the numbers go one way, and then denounce them as fixed and rigged partisan tools when the numbers go the other way. What a bunch of absolute clowns.

Born Free said:

The only true picture of the economy is the GDP number, and it is pathetic at best.

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GDP has indeed noticably weakened since Republicans took control of the House in 2011 and refused to be anyone's partner in furthering economic recovery. They'd rather boost their election chances than GDP. As the result, we've had to get by with Executive Orders and whatever the Fed can do. Republicans are simply a national disgrace.

Born Free said:

Unemployment numbers are done by two different surveys...

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LOL! No, just the CPS. The CES covers payroll employment only. Attempts to portray yourself as knowledgeable have once again failed.

Born Free said:

...and of course they can be pushed and pulled as you want the results.

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There is little that could be further from the truth. BLS and each of the other statistical agencies is fiercely independent and nonpartisan. They jealously guard that status, just as CBO, GAO, and CRS do. They are staffed by career civil servants, not political appointees. They realize that their products aren't worth anything to anybody unless they are the best and the cleanest they can be for everybody. Leave the stupid partisan chip on your shoulder at the door.

Born Free said:

Hell Obama tried to cover up the Libya terrorist slaughter of our citizens on US land, and blew it off and went to Las Vegas to campaign as nothing happened.

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Per the musings of Cheney and Breitbart? Let us know once a connection to reality has been restored. Even Cheney admits that his so-called info was second-hand and that he couldn't confirm it. But close enough for some to swallow, I guess. Want to tell us about how ACORN was engaged in child prostitution again? You'd think "once bitten, twice shy" would come into play along the line here somewhere, but I guess not.

MaggieD said:

Since he appointed the Commissioner of the DOL (in April, I believe), I could picture a friendly phone call from an aid that said, "Please be sure to double check the unemployment stats. It would mean a lot to the President." I trust nothing. From either side of the aisle.

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The current Secretary of Labor is Hilda Solis who has been in her position since February 2009. The current Acting Commissioner of BLS is Jack Galvin, a career civil servant who has been with BLS since 1978. Your imaginations are meanwhile just that.

Cardinal Fang said:

The current Secretary of Labor is Hilda Solis who has been in her position since February 2009. The current Acting Commissioner of BLS is Jack Galvin, a career civil servant who has been with BLS since 1978. Your imaginations are meanwhile just that.

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Solis is a hard core democrat. that she has been in place for 3 years means exactly what? what about the promise from the Obama government as to the defense contractor planned layoffs?