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Thread: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

  1. #21
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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    Why because you think Democrats are not capable of distorting the truth.
    Because the BLS is not an arm of the Democratic Party, regardless of who is the president. It's mostly just non-political bureaucrats and statisticians.

    Christ look at all the lies by Obama against Romney and you say he would not conspire to rig the unemployment results. That is the silliest thing I've ever heard.
    The BLS is an independent agency that is designed specifically to NOT be influenced by the president. Furthermore, the risk of meddling with the numbers (e.g. getting caught) is far greater than the reward (e.g. avoiding a couple days of negative headlines). And if Obama was somehow going to mess with the numbers, he could have given himself a better score than 114,000.

    The real number to tell us how the economy is doing is the GDP number and it is at 1.3% which is pathetic at best. And it does not translate to bringing down the unemployment rate form 8.1% to 7.8
    The unemployment rate also does not move in perfect tandem with GDP. There are other factors that influence the unemployment rate.

    This I agree with. However you keep telling people things are getting better yet in reality they are not, they begin to believe you. Take the black community with unemployment at 14%, they don't care they are going to vote for Obama anyway. Now why do you suppose that is?
    Probably because they don't blame Obama for that.
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  2. #22
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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Anyone who thinks this is some kind of grand conspiracy to help Obama get reelected really needs to have his head examined. This is the silliest conspiracy theory I've heard in a while. The truth is that the unemployment rate doesn't always move exactly in tandem with the job creation rate...it's influenced by other factors too, such as the number of people entering the work force, the number of people leaving the work force, the number of discouraged workers who stop looking, revisions from previous months, etc. So it's really not that unheard of for unemployment to go down, even if the job creation numbers are subpar (or for unemployment to go up even if the job creation numbers look pretty good).

    In any case, you all don't need to lose sleep that this is going to somehow unfairly influence people to vote for Obama. To the extent that voters blame or reward the president for the economy, it's mostly based on their own perceptions of the economy...not what the BLS thinks. Most voters are not combing through monthly jobs reports for evidence that the economy is getting better or worse...they just look at their own communities and make their own judgments. So if the BLS numbers are radically different than the reality, you need not worry too much.
    Thank you! Someone finally adds some perspective to the unemployment rate discussion (not to mention common sense).

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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    We have a GDP of 1.3% and you say Obama created 873,000 jobs in September.
    Well, the 1.3 GDP number is for the second quarter. That's April-May-June, I would suppose that you knew. September is not actually any of those months. In September, employment increased by 873,000. Not because I say so. Because what are recognized as the best methodologies in the world say so. Right-wingers LOVE those methodologies when the numbers go one way, and then denounce them as fixed and rigged partisan tools when the numbers go the other way. What a bunch of absolute clowns.

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    The only true picture of the economy is the GDP number, and it is pathetic at best.
    GDP has indeed noticably weakened since Republicans took control of the House in 2011 and refused to be anyone's partner in furthering economic recovery. They'd rather boost their election chances than GDP. As the result, we've had to get by with Executive Orders and whatever the Fed can do. Republicans are simply a national disgrace.

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    Unemployment numbers are done by two different surveys...
    LOL! No, just the CPS. The CES covers payroll employment only. Attempts to portray yourself as knowledgeable have once again failed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    ...and of course they can be pushed and pulled as you want the results.
    There is little that could be further from the truth. BLS and each of the other statistical agencies is fiercely independent and nonpartisan. They jealously guard that status, just as CBO, GAO, and CRS do. They are staffed by career civil servants, not political appointees. They realize that their products aren't worth anything to anybody unless they are the best and the cleanest they can be for everybody. Leave the stupid partisan chip on your shoulder at the door.

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    Hell Obama tried to cover up the Libya terrorist slaughter of our citizens on US land, and blew it off and went to Las Vegas to campaign as nothing happened.
    Per the musings of Cheney and Breitbart? Let us know once a connection to reality has been restored. Even Cheney admits that his so-called info was second-hand and that he couldn't confirm it. But close enough for some to swallow, I guess. Want to tell us about how ACORN was engaged in child prostitution again? You'd think "once bitten, twice shy" would come into play along the line here somewhere, but I guess not.
    Last edited by Cardinal Fang; 10-06-12 at 08:24 AM.

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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by MaggieD View Post
    Since he appointed the Commissioner of the DOL (in April, I believe), I could picture a friendly phone call from an aid that said, "Please be sure to double check the unemployment stats. It would mean a lot to the President." I trust nothing. From either side of the aisle.
    The current Secretary of Labor is Hilda Solis who has been in her position since February 2009. The current Acting Commissioner of BLS is Jack Galvin, a career civil servant who has been with BLS since 1978. Your imaginations are meanwhile just that.

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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    The current Secretary of Labor is Hilda Solis who has been in her position since February 2009. The current Acting Commissioner of BLS is Jack Galvin, a career civil servant who has been with BLS since 1978. Your imaginations are meanwhile just that.
    Solis is a hard core democrat. that she has been in place for 3 years means exactly what? what about the promise from the Obama government as to the defense contractor planned layoffs?

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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Diogenes View Post
    Meet the truth:

    Conservative Media Add Obama Donations To Their BLS Conspiracy Theory | Blog | Media Matters for America

    Fox News, which has spent the day promoting conspiracy theories about the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is now trumpeting the fact that BLS economists have donated to the Democrats and President Obama to reinforce their theory that BLS data is biased toward Obama. But one of the economists Fox identified is no longer a BLS employee, and only a tiny fraction of BLS workers have even made campaign donations.

    The information [Fox News] cited came from a Washington Free Beacon article.

    However, the Free Beacon article was updated to note that Phillips no longer works for BLS: "According to his LinkedIn profile, Phillips served as an economist at BLS between June 2009 and July 2012."

    [Fox News] did not correct [their] contention that Phillips is currently a BLS economist.

    In fact, as Politico's Dan Berman pointed out, BLS counts more than 2,500 employees and more than the two cited by the Free Beacon and Bolling have donated to political causes.

    Indeed, data from the Center for Responsive Politics shows that six people who have named BLS as their place of employment have made political donations -- including three to Republican campaigns:

    I'm sure that out of the BLS's 2,500 employees, the couple of them that donated to Democrats (as opposed to the ones that donated to Republicans), have a hell of a lot of sway when it comes to the statistics that they report.


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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Meowenstein View Post
    I'm sure that out of the BLS's 2,500 employees, the couple of them that donated to Democrats (as opposed to the ones that donated to Republicans), have a hell of a lot of sway when it comes to the statistics that they report.
    Just the next phase of the GOP lie-to-the-trained-seals campaign.
    Ork! Ork!

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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Ok, thanks everybody, I've just lost all faith in the entirety of the right wing. They won't accept any source that isn't Fox News or a right wing blog, they won't accept polling data unless it agrees with them even if it is from Rasmussen or Fox News, and now, to top it off, they don't trust the numbers coming from the places that have always historically done the math. If the CBO says that the healthcare bill doesn't increase the deficit then that's Obama making them say that. The BLS says that we created some jobs? Just a bunch of BS from Obama. Of course, he rounded up the hundreds of economists and data gatherers and told them how many jobs were created and what the employment rate is and they just scribbled it on paper, lol.

    You don't trust anything and you live in a fantasy world. Some of you are beyond help. I feel like leaving this forum because it's pointless to debate a group that doesn't trust reality.

    And people wonder why the country is going down the tubes. It's because we are a bunch of ****ing morons.
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    uh that is so small as to be stupid. Do you want registration? given less than 3% of criminals get their guns from private sales, its pretty much a waste of resources
    **Thirty Minutes Later**
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    you are confused. I never denied that many criminals get guns in private sales.

  9. #29
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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    The current Secretary of Labor is Hilda Solis who has been in her position since February 2009. The current Acting Commissioner of BLS is Jack Galvin, a career civil servant who has been with BLS since 1978. Your imaginations are meanwhile just that.
    My bad. First, I was talking about the BLS. And here's where I got my information:

    Village of Thomaston resident Erica L. Groshen has been nominated by President Barack Obama to become the next commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a position she said on Wednesday will put her at the head of “one of the three most important statistical agencies in the government.” Currently a vice president in the regional analysis function with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Groshen will succeed acting Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner John M. Galvin - if her nomination is approved by the U.S. Senate.
    Not just my BAD, but my very VERY bad. Thanks for setting me straight.
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  10. #30
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    Re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by roughdraft274 View Post
    Ok, thanks everybody, I've just lost all faith in the entirety of the right wing. They won't accept any source that isn't Fox News or a right wing blog, they won't accept polling data unless it agrees with them even if it is from Rasmussen or Fox News, and now, to top it off, they don't trust the numbers coming from the places that have always historically done the math. If the CBO says that the healthcare bill doesn't increase the deficit then that's Obama making them say that. The BLS says that we created some jobs? Just a bunch of BS from Obama. Of course, he rounded up the hundreds of economists and data gatherers and told them how many jobs were created and what the employment rate is and they just scribbled it on paper, lol.

    You don't trust anything and you live in a fantasy world. Some of you are beyond help. I feel like leaving this forum because it's pointless to debate a group that doesn't trust reality.

    And people wonder why the country is going down the tubes. It's because we are a bunch of ****ing morons.
    You're probably right. And I'm glad you said "we." Both sides are guilty of this, and you know darned well if the situation were reversed, the left would be thinking the same thing. One thing I learned in life is that, "If it sounds too good to be true? It probably isn't." That's where many people are coming from.
    The devil whispered in my ear, "You cannot withstand the storm." I whispered back, "I am ​the storm."

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