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Thread: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Wait so you're telling me Part Time Jobs at Mcdonald's are really full time jobs and everything is awesome? In an economy that's been downgraded to 1.3% GDP with a LFPR that's at it's lowest point in decades?

    Doesn't pass the laugh test. You people have turned from Hope and Change to Hopeless

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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17 View Post
    Since the number of jobs created doesn't even keep up with population growth, why in the world would anyone doubt that unemployment went down nearly half a point?
    850,000 new jobs (if that is true) in one month is far above the population growth.

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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    For many months I have been befuddled by the job growth that two private companies have been reporting. They have often been reporting far more job growth than the gov figures do. While I do think that the gov figures sound suspecious and should be investigated, it's not outside of the real of possibility that the private companies who track this have been correct, and that the the gov figures, for whatever reason, just now caught up. I wouldn't just assume that they are incorrect or that any hanki-panki has been going on.

    It's actually quite unfortunate for the prez that last months figures are so odd and cast suspicion on him, surely he is not so stupid to have had anything to do with that...or is he? I believe that if I was the prez, and if it was possible for me to have put pressure on whoever it is that tracks unemployment, I would have probably been "suggesting" to them that unemployment might drop 1/10th of a point each month for the past year, not 6/10ths in one month, I mean if one is going to make up a lie, it might as well be a believable lie.

    It's going to be very interesting to see what next months numbers are going to look like, wouldn't they be annouced just a day or two before the election?

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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    Look at the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate from Gallop. It's 8.1%. 1.3% GDP revised down growth and the Economy created a million full time jobs last month? Does not pass the laugh test.


    Those rates are pretty close to what the federal gov figures are.

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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    Wait so you're telling me Part Time Jobs at Mcdonald's are really full time jobs and everything is awesome? In an economy that's been downgraded to 1.3% GDP with a LFPR that's at it's lowest point in decades?

    Doesn't pass the laugh test. You people have turned from Hope and Change to Hopeless
    Show me where I stated that bull****.


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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Employment increased by 873,000 in September. The civilian labor force increased by 418,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8%. The right-wing has implicit faith when the numbers move in the other direction, but now? It seems to me that the posts of the right-wing are nothing but hollow shells under all circumstances.

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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Anyone who thinks this is some kind of grand conspiracy to help Obama get reelected really needs to have his head examined. This is the silliest conspiracy theory I've heard in a while. The truth is that the unemployment rate doesn't always move exactly in tandem with the job creation rate...it's influenced by other factors too, such as the number of people entering the work force, the number of people leaving the work force, the number of discouraged workers who stop looking, revisions from previous months, etc. So it's really not that unheard of for unemployment to go down, even if the job creation numbers are subpar (or for unemployment to go up even if the job creation numbers look pretty good).

    In any case, you all don't need to lose sleep that this is going to somehow unfairly influence people to vote for Obama. To the extent that voters blame or reward the president for the economy, it's mostly based on their own perceptions of the economy...not what the BLS thinks. Most voters are not combing through monthly jobs reports for evidence that the economy is getting better or worse...they just look at their own communities and make their own judgments. So if the BLS numbers are radically different than the reality, you need not worry too much.
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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Employment increased by 873,000 in September. The civilian labor force increased by 418,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8%. The right-wing has implicit faith when the numbers move in the other direction, but now? It seems to me that the posts of the right-wing are nothing but hollow shells under all circumstances.
    We have a GDP of 1.3% and you say Obama created 873,000 jobs in September. The only true picture of the economy is the GDP number, and it is pathetic at best. Unemployment numbers are done by two different surveys and of course they can be pushed and pulled as you want the results. Hell Obama tried to cover up the Libya terrorist slaughter of our citizens on US land, and blew it off and went to Las Vegas to campaign as nothing happened.
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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Anyone who thinks this is some kind of grand conspiracy to help Obama get reelected really needs to have his head examined. This is the silliest conspiracy theory I've heard in a while.
    Why because you think Democrats are not capable of distorting the truth. Christ look at all the lies by Obama against Romney and you say he would not conspire to rig the unemployment results. That is the silliest thing I've ever heard.

    The truth is that the unemployment rate doesn't always move exactly in tandem with the job creation rate...it's influenced by other factors too, such as the number of people entering the work force, the number of people leaving the work force, the number of discouraged workers who stop looking, revisions from previous months, etc. So it's really not that unheard of for unemployment to go down, even if the job creation numbers are subpar (or for unemployment to go up even if the job creation numbers look pretty good).
    The real number to tell us how the economy is doing is the GDP number and it is at 1.3% which is pathetic at best. And it does not translate to bringing down the unemployment rate form 8.1% to 7.8

    In any case, you all don't need to lose sleep that this is going to somehow unfairly influence people to vote for Obama. To the extent that voters blame or reward the president for the economy, it's mostly based on their own perceptions of the economy...not what the BLS thinks. Most voters are not combing through monthly jobs reports for evidence that the economy is getting better or worse...they just look at their own communities and make their own judgments. So if the BLS numbers are radically different than the reality, you need not worry too much.
    This I agree with. However you keep telling people things are getting better yet in reality they are not, they begin to believe you. Take the black community with unemployment at 14%, they don't care they are going to vote for Obama anyway. Now why do you suppose that is?
    Liberals - Punish the Successful, Reward the Unsuccessful
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    re: Jobs Report May Mean More to Presidential Race Than Markets [Edit]

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    For many months I have been befuddled by the job growth that two private companies have been reporting. They have often been reporting far more job growth than the gov figures do. While I do think that the gov figures sound suspecious and should be investigated, it's not outside of the real of possibility that the private companies who track this have been correct, and that the the gov figures, for whatever reason, just now caught up. I wouldn't just assume that they are incorrect or that any hanki-panki has been going on.

    It's actually quite unfortunate for the prez that last months figures are so odd and cast suspicion on him, surely he is not so stupid to have had anything to do with that...or is he? I believe that if I was the prez, and if it was possible for me to have put pressure on whoever it is that tracks unemployment, I would have probably been "suggesting" to them that unemployment might drop 1/10th of a point each month for the past year, not 6/10ths in one month, I mean if one is going to make up a lie, it might as well be a believable lie.

    It's going to be very interesting to see what next months numbers are going to look like, wouldn't they be annouced just a day or two before the election?
    Since he appointed the Commissioner of the DOL (in April, I believe), I could picture a friendly phone call from an aid that said, "Please be sure to double check the unemployment stats. It would mean a lot to the President." I trust nothing. From either side of the aisle.
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