Iranian Currency Collapses - Sanctions + corruption

[Jonsa]

It would seem the Iranian sanctions have exacerbated the economic corruption and mismanagement.


Internally Iran is becoming a powerkeg, the fuse is lit and hpefully we''ll see a persian spring.

http/iran-s-currency-crisis-


/iran-currency-crisis-tehran-clashes

Looks good on the basterds.

 

[ecofarm]

I do not think the Iranian regime will allow a democratic uprising. They've already shown a propensity to brutally oppress such, including the putting down of a 'Persian Spring' recently and they keep Assad in power. If they get the bomb, they will turn Iran into a nK, with no contact in or out.

 

[Jonsa]

I do not think the Iranian regime will allow a democratic uprising. They've already shown a propensity to brutally oppress such, including the putting down of a 'Persian Spring' recently and they keep Assad in power. If they get the bomb, they will turn Iran into a nK, with no contact in or out.

there is only so much stress the regime can take. The last uprising was mostly about free elections. This time its going to be about food on the table.

 

[Connery]

This protest situation I am glad to see. Good for these people in this very repressive environment. The riot police were called out and "Iran deployed riot police at key Tehran intersections on Thursday, after tensions flared over the nation's plunging currency in the most widespread display of anger linked to the country's sanctions-hit economy. The show of force reflects the authorities' concerns in the wake of sporadic protests Wednesday over the plummeting currency, which has sharply driven up prices."


Iran's currency plunges 40 percent, riot police called out (+video) - CSMonitor.com



Here is another video posted on youtube.

 

[rocket88]

there is only so much stress the regime can take. The last uprising was mostly about free elections. This time its going to be about food on the table.

It's probably only a matter of time. I don't know if it's months or years, but not forever.

 

[Ben K.]

I do not think the Iranian regime will allow a democratic uprising. They've already shown a propensity to brutally oppress such, including the putting down of a 'Persian Spring' recently and they keep Assad in power. If they get the bomb, they will turn Iran into a nK, with no contact in or out.

Except their regime isn't nearly as worshipped as nk was when they closed the doors and the population far more educated. Any attempt to deprive contact with the established Iranian diaspora that freely travel in and out of the country will make it more unpopular.

NK could never happen again with the way communication is these days.

 

[ecofarm]

NK could never happen again with the way communication is these days.

There would be no way to stop them, and if one thinks that some sense of decency is gonna prevent it, one's dreamin'.

 

[American]

Except their regime isn't nearly as worshipped as nk was when they closed the doors and the population far more educated. Any attempt to deprive contact with the established Iranian diaspora that freely travel in and out of the country will make it more unpopular.

NK could never happen again with the way communication is these days.

NK is only happening because of China.

 

[Uzidoesit]

This can only mean one thing: burn embassies to the ground and shoot the inhabitants. Not necessarily in that order.

Call 1-800-jihadmeisters.

"hello?" I need a jihad, quick!! "Have you tried burning American Flags?.

Please hold, we have another client on the line.

 

[sharon]

there is only so much stress the regime can take. The last uprising was mostly about free elections. This time its going to be about food on the table.

I agree.. Iran can't buy parts for anything and they can't pay for the imports they need... The Iranian people are fed up with the defiance of the Iranian government working hardships on them.. Hardships that promise to get worse....and they are well aware that Syria is killing Syrians.

 

[Medusa]

what is next*???

 

[Rainman05]

I'm pretty sure that if there would be an uprising, it will go the way of the other ones... and have the tendency to develop into radical, fundamentalist islamic revolutions.

I hope there won't be such an uprising simply because I don't want the christians, hindu and jewish communities in Iran to be persecutted for their religious beliefs. Now, they enjoy equal freedoms from the government. If it falls... well.. we'll see a do-over of what happened in egypt... of what is going on in Libya and Syria. Christians and other minorities (whatever jewish minorities are left) are being killed and systematically destroyed by the "arab spring" rebels. A religious genocide.

 

[Kandahar]

I'm pretty sure that if there would be an uprising, it will go the way of the other ones... and have the tendency to develop into radical, fundamentalist islamic revolutions.

Umm Iran's CURRENT government is radical, fundamentalist, Islamic, and revolutionary. And the Iranian people are pretty sick of it.

I hope there won't be such an uprising simply because I don't want the christians, hindu and jewish communities in Iran to be persecutted for their religious beliefs. Now, they enjoy equal freedoms from the government. If it falls... well.. we'll see a do-over of what happened in egypt... of what is going on in Libya and Syria. Christians and other minorities (whatever jewish minorities are left) are being killed and systematically destroyed by the "arab spring" rebels. A religious genocide.

This shows that you have no idea what you're talking about. Iran is much more cosmopolitan than any of those other countries you mentioned. And unlike those other countries, it's already tried a religious fundamentalist government and the people don't like it. And unlike those other countries, it's Shiite and Persian rather than Sunni and Arab. Frankly it's pretty stupid to assume that Iran and Egypt are going to develop the same way just because most people are Muslims...just as it would be stupid to say that the United States and Colombia are basically the same because most people in both countries are nominally Christian.

 

[Sherman123]

I'm less hopeful about the outcome of a revolution in Iran than others on here seem to be. It's what has made me worried about the Arab Spring, we have become relatively spoiled in terms of how we perceive the power and stability of autocratic regimes, and the tools that are often needed to topple them. We look to Egypt and marvel at the apparent strength of 'people power' but we neglect to remember the role that SCAF played. What would have happened if the military had not been afraid to use violence against the protesters, what would have happened if they had had a rank and file ready and willing to carry out those commands? The revolution would have been crushed and tanks not protesters would have occupied Tahrir Square.

In Libya what stopped the protesters from being crushed? The inherent weakness of the Libyan military and their ability to draw from large defector formations and seize military equipment. Even then this was barely enough, and before NATO intervened Libyan troops were advancing on Benghazi. In Syria what happened? The protest movement was repeatedly put down with violence, and so was forced to react with violence against a regime willing to use every weapon in its arsenal commensurate with the threat. The result is a dead peoples revolution and a still smoldering civil war.

My point is that all an autocracy needs to retain power is a security force, and one that is willing to act against the populace. This is why almost every revolution requires some sort of defection or unconscious acquiescence and cooperation with the security forces. This can either take the form of actual military defections and the creation of a revolutionary nucleus to defend the demonstrators (or if need be engage in pitched battle a la Syria), or a security apparatus that chooses not to fight the civilians and allows the government to fall (a la Egypt).

What do you have in Iran? There is a very strong security apparatus that is ideologically and often geographically separate from the liberal urban population. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Baseej are frequently drawn from the more conservative countryside and are seen as being ideologically and politically close to the regime. Especially those battalions that have had a surplus of religious indoctrination. Then you have the Interior Ministry and its associated police organs which for obvious reasons are very close to the regime and have a personal stake in preventing a new potentially vengeful regime from coming to power. Your X factors are the Iranian conventional forces (again often drawn from conservative parts of the country but not as much) but these have diminished in size and scope. For example much of the naval, rocket, and aerial programs have been subsumed into the IRGC, and frequently IRGC field formations have replaced conventional forces.

The last time demonstrations broke out I didn't see any qualms on the part of security forces to fire into crowds or send suppression teams into the streets. Did anyone else? I think the only way a revolution in Iran succeeds is if the base expands to include the conservative smaller cities, the countryside, and the merchant class. Then you have a chance of peeling away some military or security assets in the regime, who will see their demographic base of support thinning dramatically and may choose to cut out while they still can.

 

[Wiseone]

NK is only happening because of China.

I think you underestimate the resiliency of the North Korean regime, also the biggest supplier of foreign aid to North Korea is.......... the United States, followed by South Korea, and then China.

Since 1996, the United States has sent over 2.2 million MT of food assistance worth nearly $800 million to North Korea. Over 90% of U.S. food assistance to Pyongyang has been channeled through the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP). The United States has been by far the largest cumulative contributor to the WFP’s North Korea appeals.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40095.pdf

(And thats only food aid, we provide other kinds of aid as well)

China's biggest support for North Korea comes from buying its goods, which is probably the biggest source of funds for the North Korean regime.

 

[Rainman05]

Umm Iran's CURRENT government is radical, fundamentalist, Islamic, and revolutionary. And the Iranian people are pretty sick of it.

This shows that you have no idea what you're talking about. Iran is much more cosmopolitan than any of those other countries you mentioned. And unlike those other countries, it's already tried a religious fundamentalist government and the people don't like it. And unlike those other countries, it's Shiite and Persian rather than Sunni and Arab. Frankly it's pretty stupid to assume that Iran and Egypt are going to develop the same way just because most people are Muslims...just as it would be stupid to say that the United States and Colombia are basically the same because most people in both countries are nominally Christian.

You think shiite islam cannot be radicalized? Iraq is taken over by a shiite minority for instance.

Also, it isn't just Persian. It is 60%+ persian while the rest 40% of the country is kurds, turks, arabs and what naught.

I ma not saying Egypt and Syria and Libya are becoming more islamic radical because they are muslims... I am saying it because the major forces behind the "revolutions" is a radical islamic group.

That being said the revolutions in Iran are also, in part, due to radical islamic groups. The theocracy in Iran, well, part of it, wants ahmadinejad out of the way. The pro-democracy protests in the street are partially fueled by the desire for religious rulership. Just like in Egypt right? The people wanted democracy and with said democracy, they elected a guy whose main platform was jihad and shari'a. Way to go!

 

[sharon]

You think shiite islam cannot be radicalized? Iraq is taken over by a shiite minority for instance.

Also, it isn't just Persian. It is 60%+ persian while the rest 40% of the country is kurds, turks, arabs and what naught.

I ma not saying Egypt and Syria and Libya are becoming more islamic radical because they are muslims... I am saying it because the major forces behind the "revolutions" is a radical islamic group.

That being said the revolutions in Iran are also, in part, due to radical islamic groups. The theocracy in Iran, well, part of it, wants ahmadinejad out of the way. The pro-democracy protests in the street are partially fueled by the desire for religious rulership. Just like in Egypt right? The people wanted democracy and with said democracy, they elected a guy whose main platform was jihad and shari'a. Way to go!

I think you have it pretty much wrong because you are making assumptions about the Muslim Brotherhood instead of looking at how they have changed since 1960..

Have you read the Libyan Constution ? (1951-1969) Tripoli is quite different than Eastern Libya.

 

[Rainman05]

I think you have it pretty much wrong because you are making assumptions about the Muslim Brotherhood instead of looking at how they have changed since 1960..

Have you read the Libyan Constution ? (1951-1969) Tripoli is quite different than Eastern Libya.

have they now... I somehow doubt it. The first impressions sure left me with a sour taste, but I assume anything is possible. Looking forward to see that I am wrong.

 

[sharon]

have they now... I somehow doubt it. The first impressions sure left me with a sour taste, but I assume anything is possible. Looking forward to see that I am wrong.

Yes. The MB has disavowed every radical element for the past 25 years and vice versa. They have matured and evolved. They are more inclusive....

Libya is far more cosmopolitan in the West than in Benghazi, Marsa Brega and Derna where there are still tribal rivalries. But, over all.. the Libyans want peace and prosperity.. That is impossible in a war zone.. Impossible for everyone.

While there are pockets of hardline radicals everywhere, the ME is changing.. for the better, I think because of a consensus among the people.. Not to say that there won't be "bumps in the road"... but look at this week's news out of Saudi Arabia.. which is very conservative. The SAG with the approval of the clerics, the merchant class, the technocrats etc have radically curbed the powers of the religious police.

 

[Ben K.]

There would be no way to stop them, and if one thinks that some sense of decency is gonna prevent it, one's dreamin'.

I'm not relying on the regimes decency. There's a massive difference between the public gullibility of today's Iranian population and that of North Koreans a half century ago. The experiment can't be repeated, they've given too many of their public a decent education - at home and abroad.

 

[ecofarm]

I'm not relying on the regimes decency. There's a massive difference between the public gullibility of today's Iranian population and that of North Koreans a half century ago. The experiment can't be repeated, they've given too many of their public a decent education - at home and abroad.

Gullibility has nothing to do with it. You think nKoreans just believe whatever 'cause they're a particularly gullible people?!

With nukes, no one can stop the government from running people over with tanks, shooting questions, "purifying" Iran and such. You think the regime wants to liberalize? They chant Death to America/Israel in Parliament.

I dunno who you think the Iranian regime is. Perhaps you didn't notice Syria, Hez and Hamas resulting from them. Perhaps the terror attacks in Iraq and around the world didn't make your radar.

The people of Iran would become animals, property, overnight. Syria, Hez and Hamas would become much more horrible things.

 

[Ben K.]

Gullibility has nothing to do with it. You think nKoreans just believe whatever 'cause they're a particularly gullible people?!

With nukes, no one can stop the government from running people over with tanks, shooting questions, "purifying" Iran and such. You think the regime wants to liberalize? They chant Death to America/Israel in Parliament.

I dunno who you think the Iranian regime is. Perhaps you didn't notice Syria, Hez and Hamas resulting from them. Perhaps the terror attacks in Iraq and around the world didn't make your radar.

The people of Iran would become animals, property, overnight. Syria, Hez and Hamas would become much more horrible things.

Gullible genetically? No. Gullible as an acquired trait, yes they are particularly gullible.

I'm not sure chanting death to America or Israel and funding terror means they're going to or capable of building an insulated police state. And if they need to violently suppress an uprising, they're already unlike the North Koreans who don't need to suppress any uprisings because their people are so brainwashed.

 

[ecofarm]

Gullible genetically? No. Gullible as an acquired trait, yes they are particularly gullible.

I'm not sure chanting death to America or Israel and funding terror means they're going to or capable of building an insulated police state.

They have an insulated police state, and Syria, Hez and Hamas totalitarians outside the state. Ever seen an Iranian here? The nukes will make it total.

 

[sharon]

Gullibility has nothing to do with it. You think nKoreans just believe whatever 'cause they're a particularly gullible people?!

With nukes, no one can stop the government from running people over with tanks, shooting questions, "purifying" Iran and such. You think the regime wants to liberalize? They chant Death to America/Israel in Parliament.

I dunno who you think the Iranian regime is. Perhaps you didn't notice Syria, Hez and Hamas resulting from them. Perhaps the terror attacks in Iraq and around the world didn't make your radar.

The people of Iran would become animals, property, overnight. Syria, Hez and Hamas would become much more horrible things.

From an Iranian perspective... the US supports Israel's occupation and oppression in Palestine... and continued expansion.

You should also remember that little Lebanon has been victimized by Israel in a number of ways for 60 years... The numerous attempts to take south Lebanon and the Litani River.. not to mention being overrun with Palestinian refugees.

Its NOT a one way street.

 

[ecofarm]

From an Iranian perspective... the US supports Israel's occupation and oppression in Palestine... and continued expansion.

You should also remember that little Lebanon has been victimized by Israel in a number of ways for 60 years... The numerous attempts to take south Lebanon and the Litani River.. not to mention being overrun with Palestinian refugees.

Its NOT a one way street.

The vast majority of Lebanon's problems are the direct result of having an Iranian terror cell in control of much of the country, including the part Israel was forced to suppress. Same goes for Palestine. We can help the people of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iran (and Iraq and the rest of the mideast) by ending the Iranian regime's reign of terror.

Bombing to prevent nukes while leaving the heart of terrorism intact seems rather half-assed to me.