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Thread: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    I fail to see why we should spend more then we did during the cold war against enemies that can only dream of having the power the USSR did.
    The former Soviet Union still has nuclear weapons. They still have interests that counter our own. We drove them into bankruptcy with stealth technology. During the Cold war we spent roughly how much of our gross domestic product on defense - 7%? 6%?

    How much do we spend today?

    You seem to think that the threats we face today are more existential then total annihilation that the USSR threatened. That to me is simply another delusion you have. Why we should spend more now then we did against an enemy that could actually end America is not rational nor reasonable, but most of your posts are neither anyways.
    You raise an interesting point. Then we faced a bloc, the Warsaw Pact lead by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. There was one really big threat. We had to be in many places to counter it but we understood it and we developed strategies, and tactics to defeat our one big threat.

    Now we have many threats. They are more diffuse. Each is less threatening than 30% casualties in a global nuclear war. Which is harder to prepare for and to counter? How many unique threats do we face today? 25? 30? 50?

    We stilll have to be ready to fight and win anywhere in the world.

    It would be a very worthwhile exercise to imagine the threats we may face in twenty years and then imagine the kinds of forces and training we will need to counter those threats or to fight and to win our nation's battles.

    Merely lopping off a hundred billion dollars each year for ten years hardly seems like the adult way of doing business.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    The former Soviet Union still has nuclear weapons. They still have interests that counter our own. We drove them into bankruptcy with stealth technology. During the Cold war we spent roughly how much of our gross domestic product on defense - 7%? 6%?
    Um no. We drove them into bankruptcy via a number of ways, one of which was Afghanistan. Stealth itself was just a part of it.

    How much do we spend today?
    How about you look at the inflation pegged amount of spending rather than percent of economy?

    You raise an interesting point. Then we faced a bloc, the Warsaw Pact lead by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. There was one really big threat. We had to be in many places to counter it but we understood it and we developed strategies, and tactics to defeat our one big threat.

    Now we have many threats. They are more diffuse. Each is less threatening than 30% casualties in a global nuclear war. Which is harder to prepare for and to counter? How many unique threats do we face today? 25? 30? 50?
    Aside from a very unlikely Russian nuclear strike, we do not face an existential threat from our fellow humans. The threat we face are real, but hardly require the kind of spending we did against a threat that could actually end the world.

    We stilll have to be ready to fight and win anywhere in the world.
    That doesn't mean we spend more then we did against the Soviets.

    It would be a very worthwhile exercise to imagine the threats we may face in twenty years and then imagine the kinds of forces and training we will need to counter those threats or to fight and to win our nation's battles.

    Merely lopping off a hundred billion dollars each year for ten years hardly seems like the adult way of doing business.
    By your measure, we shouldn't cut anything. Despite spending more than we did against a threat that could end America. DoD needs to be cut. As does everything else. If we funded every possibility for everything, we would be instantly broke.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Um no. We drove them into bankruptcy via a number of ways, one of which was Afghanistan. Stealth itself was just a part of it.
    Quibble if you wish. Once they realized we had invalidated the enormous sums they spent on air defense they pretty much gave up. Afghanistan was also a nice touch. Of course they had a losing strategy. And we provided arms to the freedom fighters.

    How about you look at the inflation pegged amount of spending rather than percent of economy?
    That is one reasonable way to measure. I view defense spending as an insurance policy. I know that no matter how much I have I will need to spend a certain amount to transfer some of my risks to a third party. The nation transfers a great deal of its risk to a professional, all volunteer force. Now if you want to go back to conscription to lower costs I might support you.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    I see the situation almost identical to it was in Germany in the early 1930s. A huge population, poor, with a huge chip in their shoulder, claiming everyone is picking on them, declaring some self superiority (for the Middle East it is religion) - and blaming all their problems on Jews and others, such as gays, for which they have the goal of eliminating all those from their country (which is done in most Islamic countries) -with it beyond where Germany was at with the vow to totally genocide Israel - and the greater danger to the whole world given the existence of nuclear weapons.

    In the early 30s, Britain and France had overwhelming military power by comparison so saw Germany as no threat - and instead then appeased thinking if they were fair to Germany they all could be buddies.

    I see President Obama as America's Neville Chamberlain. He declared "peace in our time" and Obama declared "Arab Spring."

    A core belief of radical Islam is that they should and will be a worldwide war of mass death and destruction, but that Islam will ultimately win it.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    By your measure, we shouldn't cut anything. Despite spending more than we did against a threat that could end America. DoD needs to be cut. As does everything else. If we funded every possibility for everything, we would be instantly broke.
    I think that cutting needs a time out. We can take a year and bring the best minds together to imagine the threats we will face in twenty years. Then we can figure out what forces are required to meet that threat, prioritize them and then figure out what it will cost to have the appropriate force. Maybe the cost will go down. maybe it will stay the same. And maybe it will rise.

    We won't know until we do the exercise.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    Quibble if you wish. Once they realized we had invalidated the enormous sums they spent on air defense they pretty much gave up. Afghanistan was also a nice touch. Of course they had a losing strategy. And we provided arms to the freedom fighters.
    Stealth did not bankrupt the Soviets. And frankly, we got close to being bankrupt ourselves. What is more amusing is we likely could have just gotten the USSR to destroy itself by NOT treating all Communist nations as a monolith. Simple divided and conquer would have done the job cheaper. If anything, the lesson from the Cold war is never treat your enemies as a monolithic bloc. Every group has its own desires and needs and can be broken from the group by catering to those needs. Break enough of them off and your enemies cohesion collapses and you win.

    That is one reasonable way to measure. I view defense spending as an insurance policy. I know that no matter how much I have I will need to spend a certain amount to transfer some of my risks to a third party. The nation transfers a great deal of its risk to a professional, all volunteer force. Now if you want to go back to conscription to lower costs I might support you.
    A draft is a terrible and great idea at the same time. It keeps the Elites from using it capaciously and instills some form of discipline. At the same time a draft force will never be as good as a professional force.

    We won't know until we do the exercise.
    But history shows this exercise will never end.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    I think that cutting needs a time out. We can take a year and bring the best minds together to imagine the threats we will face in twenty years. Then we can figure out what forces are required to meet that threat, prioritize them and then figure out what it will cost to have the appropriate force. Maybe the cost will go down. maybe it will stay the same. And maybe it will rise.

    We won't know until we do the exercise.
    I think that is the direction we are going toward. I have heard though I have no immediate source to cite that we are in the process of shifting from the Two-Front Traditional War orientation back again toward small short deployment scenarios with special Ops and Drones being the leading edge of the sword with less standing infantry.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Stealth did not bankrupt the Soviets.
    In my opinion it was a major factor. It is possibly the largest factor. They knew there was no way they could ever catch up. They had spent many hundreds of billions of rubles to develop sophisticated air defenses that were incapable of detecting our first generation stealth systems.

    And frankly, we got close to being bankrupt ourselves.
    Really? Nonsense. I like you better when you stay a bit closer to the facts. :-)

    What is more amusing is we likely could have just gotten the USSR to destroy itself by NOT treating all Communist nations as a monolith. Simple divided and conquer would have done the job cheaper. If anything, the lesson from the Cold war is never treat your enemies as a monolithic bloc. Every group has its own desires and needs and can be broken from the group by catering to those needs. Break enough of them off and your enemies cohesion collapses and you win.
    I love hindsight. It is very nearly always perfect. It is one of the reasons for my long, enduring interest in history. I agree with your insights. They should be our starting point for the coming war with Islam. Like the Soviet Union and the Communist world Islam is not monolithic.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Fisher View Post
    I think that is the direction we are going toward. I have heard though I have no immediate source to cite that we are in the process of shifting from the Two-Front Traditional War orientation back again toward small short deployment scenarios with special Ops and Drones being the leading edge of the sword with less standing infantry.
    Team Obama decided that was one way of saving 500 billion over ten years. They declared the world was safe from two wars in two different areas. We went from two and a half wars to barely one war.

    The world remains a dangerous place.

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    Re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    In my opinion it was a major factor. It is possibly the largest factor. They knew there was no way they could ever catch up. They had spent many hundreds of billions of rubles to develop sophisticated air defenses that were incapable of detecting our first generation stealth systems.
    By the time we had stealth aircraft in a prototype stage, the USSR was already collapsing within. Afghanistan is really what did them in.

    Really? Nonsense. I like you better when you stay a bit closer to the facts. :-)
    Same for you. Actually, I don't really like you period though. Just being honest.

    I love hindsight. It is very nearly always perfect. It is one of the reasons for my long, enduring interest in history. I agree with your insights. They should be our starting point for the coming war with Islam. Like the Soviet Union and the Communist world Islam is not monolithic.
    Except that so many Republicans treat Islam as a monolith.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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