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Thread: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

  1. #121
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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    well my point being is that Pakistan are an unstable country WITH nukes and yet thats fine but yet you worry about Iran who are a country who dont yet have them and they are a threat!?
    Pakistan =/= Iran, see my post #117.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Who the heck said that it's fine? And yes, again, Iran is a country run by religious extremists (I keep typing extremities instead of extremists - LOL).
    yeh the media and the politicans say its fine!
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    yeh the media and the politicans say its fine!
    I don't think so.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Pakistan =/= Iran, see my post #117.
    I see Pakistan as more as a threat personally the whole country is in a power struggle
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    I don't think anyone feels comfortable with Pakistan having nukes either.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    I don't think so.
    oh yeh when was the last media piece you read about the danger of Pakistans Nukes, bet you have read more about Iran's which dont yet exsist.
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    I wouldn't trust them.
    It's not as bad as the Iranian regime. Pakistan hiding a few Afghanis is nothing compared to Hamas, Hez and Syria. And Pakistan lets the US use its bases to fly strike-drones. There are elements of the Pakistan regime that are willing to work with the US and to pursue peaceful resolution with India (not 'wipe India off the map').

    Pakistan doesn't have the same ability to lock down the country as the truly totalitarian Iranian regime enjoys.

    Very different, many ways. Pakistan's existence does not and cannot excuse the creation of another North Korea. "It could be worse" and "look over there" are not legit arguments, even if they might make us feel better sometimes.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    oh yeh when was the last media piece you read about the danger of Pakistans Nukes, bet you have read more about Iran's which dont yet exsist.
    Well I haven't heard anyone cheering about it either. I have read articles about the instability of the Pakistani government and how there is worry about the safety of their nukes before. So there!

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    I see Pakistan as more as a threat personally the whole country is in a power struggle
    I'm not worried about the threat to the outside, but inside. Iran will become another nK, Pakistan cannot do that for a variety of reasons.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    In what way is it not reflective of historical evidence or contemporary political behavior on the part of the Islamic Republic? In terms of nuclear weapons providing strategic invulnerability which leads to more aggressive proxy behavior, as well as skirting the conventional edge one need only look to the US and USSR, and in the modern day Pakistan and North Korea. While Iran today has made it a clear point of its foreign policy to extend its influence as aggressively as possible, and Iranian commentators and policy analysts consistently reflect upon the need for Iran to regain its place in the sun and to lead the anti-US anti-Saudi axis in the region which would eventually be in the ascendancy in their vision.
    By historical evidence, I was not only referring Iran, but also to the history of how nations have used nuclear weapons. For the most part, nations haven't used nukes to get regional hegemony and threaten people. They use them as deterrence, period. It is also isn't supported by the current international environment because Iran could not get away with doing whatever it wants because the United States still has the power and will to stop it. Nukes aren't some magic potion that automatically gives a state that power to do whatever it wants. If that were the case, Israel would have crushed Iran by now.

    As for Iran specifically, it hasn't invaded another country in hundreds of years, it hasn't given terrorists chemical weapons to attack Israel when it's had the chance for a while now and it consistently says that it will attack Israel only if Israel or the US attacks it first.

    Plainly speaking, of course they desire regional hegemony but have been limited and relatively restrained in their ability to act. Why? Because they fear both conventional and asymmetric counter stroke. Why aren't they, and why didn't they pump guns and agents to the Houthi in Yemen? Why have they been so placid with regards to the Shia demonstrations and clashes in the Eastern Province and in Bahrain? Why have they been so keen to keep a tamp on Hezbollah and to limit their arms flow to Hamas? It goes on, and on. Because they fear tipping the scales too far and incurring an American or Gulf led counter stroke. Either conventionally, or through the arming of paramilitaries in Iran, or direct action against Iranian proxies.
    Exactly. They fear tipping the scales and they will continue to have the fear with nuclear weapons.

    With that fear obviated by nuclear security Iran would be much more aggressive, and much more capable and unconstrained to use its 'deadly swam of mosquito forces' in all forms. They could surge weapons to Hezbollah and see them used on Israel or the Lebanese government with impunity, knowing retaliation against them will be tremendously limited. They can send military formations to Iraq without fear of the spillover crossing back into Iran. They can arm the Shia in the Eastern Province with explosives, and send weapons and IRGC agents to Yemen, why? Because the ability to act against them has been more or less taken off the table.
    And this is where the problem is. You think that nuclear weapons will stop them from being afraid. However, it won't. The reason they are afraid now is because they know other states are bigger and more powerful. When they get nuclear weapons, other states will still be bigger and more powerful. Moreover, the history of nuclear weapons does not support the notion that Iran will just go crazy with their nukes.

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