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Thread: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

  1. #111
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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    They do, but I haven't seen the type of religious insanity displayed by those governments like I have from Iran.
    If Pakistan's radical elements in the government had control, it would lock down like nK. But even the central government, with combined efforts, cannot control the warlord lands let alone the semi-informed citizens.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePlayDrive View Post
    1. I don't think they should have them. As I've said before, it's not in our interest for Iran to have nuclear weapons. But again, saying that they "should" have weapons was not the point of my post. I was responding the implication that Iran doesn't have rational reasons for acquiring weapons. I'm glad we agree that it does.

    2. I can't speak for others, but I'm not overlooking how nuclear weapons could change the region. In fact, I've made a point to argue and, in some cases, demonstrate with evidence, that the claims about how it would drastically change the region are exaggerated. Now, I agree that nukes would make Iran safer from regime change and conventional strikes. I've said that as well. This is bad for the US because we want to keep all options open, but good for Iran.

    3. Your predictions about how Iran would attempt to gain regional hegemony are not realistic, in my opinion. It's neither supported by historical evidence nor the current international system in which the United States can still kick Iran's ass if it tries to expand its reach in problematic ways.
    In what way is it not reflective of historical evidence or contemporary political behavior on the part of the Islamic Republic? In terms of nuclear weapons providing strategic invulnerability which leads to more aggressive proxy behavior, as well as skirting the conventional edge one need only look to the US and USSR, and in the modern day Pakistan and North Korea. While Iran today has made it a clear point of its foreign policy to extend its influence as aggressively as possible, and Iranian commentators and policy analysts consistently reflect upon the need for Iran to regain its place in the sun and to lead the anti-US anti-Saudi axis in the region which would eventually be in the ascendancy in their vision.

    Plainly speaking, of course they desire regional hegemony but have been limited and relatively restrained in their ability to act. Why? Because they fear both conventional and asymmetric counter stroke. Why aren't they, and why didn't they pump guns and agents to the Houthi in Yemen? Why have they been so placid with regards to the Shia demonstrations and clashes in the Eastern Province and in Bahrain? Why have they been so keen to keep a tamp on Hezbollah and to limit their arms flow to Hamas? It goes on, and on. Because they fear tipping the scales too far and incurring an American or Gulf led counter stroke. Either conventionally, or through the arming of paramilitaries in Iran, or direct action against Iranian proxies.

    With that fear obviated by nuclear security Iran would be much more aggressive, and much more capable and unconstrained to use its 'deadly swam of mosquito forces' in all forms. They could surge weapons to Hezbollah and see them used on Israel or the Lebanese government with impunity, knowing retaliation against them will be tremendously limited. They can send military formations to Iraq without fear of the spillover crossing back into Iran. They can arm the Shia in the Eastern Province with explosives, and send weapons and IRGC agents to Yemen, why? Because the ability to act against them has been more or less taken off the table.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Good for Iran but probably not very good for it's citizens though, like what Eco said in his post.
    You're just making unsubstantiated claims. Thus far, out of the two of us, I'm the only one who has actually provided sources for my claims (the IAEA, etc.). What do you think the implications of that are?

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    They do, but I haven't seen the type of religious insanity displayed by those governments like I have from Iran.
    really? A pakistani gov official this week called for the death of an American citizen! Lets not forget as well America didnt even let Pakistan know they were going in for Bin Laden because they cant be trusted! The whole country is a breeding ground for Islamics and politicans who dont lean that way are attacked.
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    really? A pakistani gov official this week called for the death of an American citizen! Lets not forget as well America didnt even let Pakistan know they were going in for Bin Laden because they cant be trusted! The whole country is a breeding ground for Islamics and politicans who dont lean that way are attacked.
    Okay. Thanks for that info. So don't you think we should do something to stop another rogue country from obtaining nukes?

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePlayDrive View Post
    You're just making unsubstantiated claims. Thus far, out of the two of us, I'm the only one who has actually provided sources for my claims (the IAEA, etc.). What do you think the implications of that are?
    I think that you are MUCH too optimistic about Iran. Why anyone would think they are the victims here, I don't know. Iran is a country run by religious extremists. They would be completely unpredictable with this kind of power. I don't know what is so hard to understand about that.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Okay. Thanks for that info. So don't you think we should do something to stop another rogue country from obtaining nukes?
    Pakistan is not really rogue. Iirc, the US had a lot to do with the logistics and security of Pakistan's nukage. They don't refuse inspectors, what UNSCRs is Pakistan in violation of? We use its bases to fly gear. The regime is rather well behaved with India and the whole disputed territory thing.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Okay. Thanks for that info. So don't you think we should do something to stop another rogue country from obtaining nukes?
    well my point being is that Pakistan are an unstable country WITH nukes and yet thats fine but yet you worry about Iran who are a country who dont yet have them and they are a threat!?
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Pakistan is not really rogue. Iirc, the US had a lot to do with the logistics and security of Pakistan's nukage. They don't refuse inspectors, what UNSCRs is Pakistan in violation of? We use its bases to fly gear.
    I wouldn't trust them.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    well my point being is that Pakistan are an unstable country WITH nukes and yet thats fine but yet you worry about Iran who are a country who dont yet have them and they are a threat!?
    Who the heck said that it's fine? And yes, again, Iran is a country run by religious extremists (I keep typing extremities instead of extremists - LOL).

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