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Thread: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    The West survived the cold war for the very reason it started, no country will launch nukes as they know it will be their very destruction. Even if Iran were to acquire a short range nuke they wont fire, why would they? They want a nuke for the same reason most countries want a nuke so they can be taken seriously and have more chips on the table.
    Well that's a chance that some of us don't want to take just because some people say they think it won't happen.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Well that's a chance that some of us don't want to take just because some people say they think it won't happen.
    well if you look at the last 60 years its a safe bet that Iran would not launch nukes unless of course they were attacked first. What makes you think they would launch Nukes and endanger their own being?
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Certainly Iran has 'rational' reasons for seeking a nuclear weapon, that doesn't mean they should have them. I think an absolutely massive facet of this many overlook is the way in which nuclear weapons would shift the strategic calculus in the region, particularly from Iran's perspective. My point, and the point that many have made, is that a nuclear Iran obviates Iranian fears of regime change and significantly reduces their concern over a conventional strike on their territory.

    As a result of this new-found security Iran would be able to more aggressively pursue its regional objectives, which revolve around regional hegemony. It's ability to project proxy forces would aggressively increase on critical fronts including Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. Furthermore its ability to use its nuclear capability as a buffer would significantly increase their propensity for launching limited conventional attacks at Gulf targets, or along its periphery in reaction to geopolitical tensions. The underground battle for Iraq being waged by Iranian and Gulf (primarily Saudi) agents, donors, and proxies could become overt. So many things could happen, and we can pretty clearly see many of the ones that would happen, it would be a terrible thing to allow to occur.
    1. I don't think they should have them. As I've said before, it's not in our interest for Iran to have nuclear weapons. But again, saying that they "should" have weapons was not the point of my post. I was responding the implication that Iran doesn't have rational reasons for acquiring weapons. I'm glad we agree that it does.

    2. I can't speak for others, but I'm not overlooking how nuclear weapons could change the region. In fact, I've made a point to argue and, in some cases, demonstrate with evidence, that the claims about how it would drastically change the region are exaggerated. Now, I agree that nukes would make Iran safer from regime change and conventional strikes. I've said that as well. This is bad for the US because we want to keep all options open, but good for Iran.

    3. Your predictions about how Iran would attempt to gain regional hegemony are not realistic, in my opinion. It's neither supported by historical evidence nor the current international system in which the United States can still kick Iran's ass if it tries to expand its reach in problematic ways.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    well if you look at the last 60 years its a safe bet that Iran would not launch nukes unless of course they were attacked first. What makes you think they would launch Nukes and endanger their own being?
    Who knows why when you have religious fanatics in charge of an entire country and an arsenal of nuclear weapons? Look at the last 60 years of what? Iran hasn't had nukes for the past 60 years, and I don't believe that Iran is like other rogue countries with nukes, such as North Korea. IMO, Iran is a completely different situation. I don't think they are as predictable as you seem to think.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Who knows why when you have religious fanatics in charge of an entire country and an arsenal of nuclear weapons? Look at the last 60 years of what? Iran hasn't had nukes for the past 60 years, and I don't believe that Iran is like other rogue countries with nukes, such as North Korea. IMO, Iran is a completely different situation. I don't think they are as predictable as you seem to think.
    Pakistan and India do
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    well if you look at the last 60 years its a safe bet that Iran would not launch nukes unless of course they were attacked first.
    And if we look at the last 30 years we can see what they would do with nukes (North Korea).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePlayDrive View Post
    1. I don't think they should have them. As I've said before, it's not in our interest for Iran to have nuclear weapons. But again, saying that they "should" have weapons was not the point of my post. I was responding the implication that Iran doesn't have rational reasons for acquiring weapons. I'm glad we agree that it does.

    2. I can't speak for others, but I'm not overlooking how nuclear weapons could change the region. In fact, I've made a point to argue and, in some cases, demonstrate with evidence, that the claims about how it would drastically change the region are exaggerated. Now, I agree that nukes would make Iran safer from regime change and conventional strikes. I've said that as well. This is bad for the US because we want to keep all options open, but good for Iran.
    3. Your predictions about how Iran would attempt to gain regional hegemony are not realistic, in my opinion. It's neither supported by historical evidence nor the current international system in which the United States can still kick Iran's ass if it tries to expand its reach in problematic ways.
    Good for Iran but probably not very good for it's citizens though, like what Eco said in his post.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    And if we look at the last 30 years we can see what they would do with nukes (North Korea).
    exactly sweet FA
    ‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    Pakistan and India do
    They do, but I haven't seen the type of religious insanity displayed by those governments like I have from Iran.

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    re: Iran is heating up . . . [W:259]

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisL View Post
    Iran is the country that does all the ridiculous threatening posturing.
    Actually, Israel and the United States do quite a lot of their own. As I said before, you're just looking at this purely from a Western perspective and that's clouding your judgment. I've also provided you with primary sources and actual resources, but you're still just repeating uninformed talking points which is disheartening.

    It is a hostile country, oppressive to it's people.
    Yep.

    I believe a lot of terrorists come from Iran too.
    Proof? And how is this relevant to this discussion? A lot of terrorists come from Saudi Arabia and India and there are plenty of terrorists in the United States, Russia and other nuclear powers as well.

    And their leaders are not playing with a full deck obviously.
    Proof?

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