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Thread: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

  1. #221
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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by Das Sozialist View Post
    If you don't believe me, find better numbers and show me. I used the 1995-2002 numbers that ABC released which included births and deaths, when you do the math, you need over 130,000 jobs to keep up with population growth. Prove me wrong and I'll gladly admit that I'm wrong.
    The first problem is that the most recent of your data are ten years old. Lots of water over the dam since then. The second problem is that your work assumes that the relationship between employment and population is an immutable constant -- sort of like the speed of light. This is not the case. The relationship is actually in a constant state of flux as the result of changes in technology, demographics, and simple worker preferences, among other things. I suggest that you would have a very hard time finding someone actually versed in the field who would agree that as many as 130,000 jobs a month are needed to keep pace with population growth.

    Quote Originally Posted by Das Sozialist View Post
    Again, prove me wrong and I'll gladly admit I am, you haven't provided any evidence otherwise.
    Your claim was that employment has not been growing but rather declining. That's beyond false. There are no data to support such an assertion. Your attempts to manufacture such data simply take many months from the preceding decline and lump them in with the months of the succeeding recovery. Had you recognized that employment is a lagging variable, you might not have made such a mistake.

    To summarize the actual history, when Obama was inaugurated, employment was declining at an accelerating rate. That is, both the first and second derivatives were negative. Soon the second derivative went positive, meaning that things were still getting worse but at a slower rate. Then the first derivative went positive, meaning that things were actually getting better instead of worse. Then the curve itself went positive, meaning that we experienced job gains instead of job losses. Then Republicans took control of the House and stopped providing support for the recovery, hoping that bad news for the economy would end up being good news for them at the polls.

    To summarize in terms of actual data, payroll employment peaked in January 2008. Twelve months later, we had lost 4.5 million jobs. Twelve months after that, we had lost a further 4.3 million jobs. In the thirty months since the employment effects of the Great Bush Recession bottomed out, we have recovered 4.1 million jobs. That's why people say employment has been growing, not declining. Here is a nice picture that may be an aid to comprehension...

    payroll_employment_2002-12.jpg

    That actually makes things kind of clear, wouldn't you say?
    Last edited by Cardinal Fang; 09-14-12 at 03:14 PM.

  2. #222
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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I have asked you at least half a dozen times to prove what you state - and you have yet to even attempt to provide ANY links.
    You post unsourced, poorly sourced, and entirely bogus claims about deficits, about depressions, about budgets, and about stock market indices, and I have enough initiative to go off and pull up the data that prove those claims to be utterly without merit or foundation of any sort. You apparently either lack any such initiative, or you do have some but in its exercise have utterly failed to track down even an iota of information that disproves any of my statements. So pronounced is the paucity of your contradictory discovery that you have had to resort to misconstruction of the rules of English grammar in order to have something to grouse about. What a waste.

  3. #223
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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Ummm...yes you did. My question was:
    Your typically dishonest question was in the form of a "Have you stopped beating your wife?" fallacy, and no, I will not dignify it further than to explain that which actually needs no explanation, namely that people choose to enter and leave the workforce for all sorts of individual reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with any ability to find what they might consider to be a suitable job. Indeed, many of those who choose to exit the workforce leave just such a job behind them in their wakes. How foolishly short-sighted of you not to have realized that.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Race card? Have you gone right off the deep end?
    No. It doesn't matter whose "boy" you refer to, the implication is obvious enough that any sentient person would have thought to reword the statement unless he or she had intended that the implication be drawn. A defense of Oh, you're right, I was typing in a hurry and didn't catch it at the time would have been acceptable. This one isn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I demand an apology from you on this. And when I do not get one - because I think I know you - I will report this to the mods.
    How has that worked out for you in the past? Get embarrassed, call a mod.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    And btw - I am NOT a right winger.
    Well, you certainly are as befuddled, disoriented, and dishonest as one, so I guess it's an easy mistake for people to make.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    let's see what he has done:
    - he ramped up the deficit by about $6 trillion.
    Want to try that again? Debt and deficit are two different things. What portion of each of them by the way has been directly attributable to the effects of the Great Bush Recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - food stamp usage has skyrocketed by about 40%
    Because the Great Bush Recession has forced tens of millions of Americans out of their jobs and out of their homes. What are the income limits for food stamps again? If Republicans would stop manufacturing poor people at such a dizzying pace with their ignorant economic policies, fewer people would need food stamps simply to meet their basic nutitional needs.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - average new home prices are WAY below what they were
    How did that happen again? Did the Great Bush Recession play any part in it?

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - the unemployment rate is worse
    Employment is a lagging variable. More than 4 million jobs have been added since the Great Bush Recession hit its employment bottom. The unemployment rate has meanwhile declined by two percentage points from its peak.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - the participation rate is the worst since 1981
    Why would you think higher was better and lower was worse? Meanwhile, the LFPR was projected 20 years ago to begin a decline by the late 1990's, but it held on for a couple of years thanks to the great economy we had back then. Since 2001, both the demographic and cyclical components underlying the LFPR have turned negative. The reasons for this have been explained to you many times before. Your continued raising of this claim serves only to underscore the level of your dedication to deliberate disinformation.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - he ramped up the war in Afghanistan with disastrous consequences.
    He quite plainly campaigned on a plan to leave Iraq and return to the more important war that Bush had so foolishly abandoned, thus handing back to the Taliban a victory that we had won. And what meanwhile have been the disastrous consequences of this return? The death of bin Laden? The destruction of al Qaeda?

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - Gitmo is still open (despite some people's delusional thoughts that it is closed)
    LOL! There have been no arrivals at Gitmo. Only departures. The last 170 or so -- half of whom have already been cleared for release -- are being held captive at Gitmo by Republicans who refuse to fund their relocation to anywhere else at all because the Ayatollah Boehner values these hostages as partisan political assets.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    - he has NEVER posted a deficit of less then a trillion dollars
    Again, what on earth did you expect to result from the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression? Anyone expecting fiscal balance would have been quite the fool indeed, especially as the FY 2009 deficit was already projected at $1.2 trillion by the day Obama was first sworn in.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    And these are just off of the top of my head.
    [Insert joke here]

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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    The depression started in January 1920. Unemployment was indeed 1.4% in 1919. And the DOW was around 108.
    Why it would matter is still left uncertain, but the DJIA varied in 1919 between 72.30 and 119.62. The average close during the year was 99.78.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    By 1921, unemployment was at 11.7% and the DOW as low as 63.80 (in latter 1920). Yet, within 3.5 years of the depression beginning, the unemployment rate was 2.4% and the DOW was up to 105+. All while the government MASSIVELY cut spending.
    WWI Era Unemployment Rates...

    1918: 1.4%
    1919: 1.4%
    1920: 5.2%
    1921: 11.7%
    1922: 6.7%
    1923: 2.4%
    1924: 5.0%
    1925: 3.2%

    In 1920, the DJIA varied between 66.75 and 109.88. The average close was 90.20. In 1923, the DJIA varied between 85.76 and 105.38. The average close was 94.86. Where in these data should we be looking to find the magical influences of Harding's laissez-faire approach again? And where did the Recession of 1923-24 come from? How about the Recesson of 1926-27?

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    And Cardinal Fang does not consider that close.
    Correct, a temporary brush with 2.4% is not actually close to two years at 1.4%.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I said from 'mid '33 until 'mid '42. I did not specify dates.
    Such vagueness and imprecision was why I pressed you on the point, and you replied that you had specifically chosen three months after FDR's inauguration and six months after Pearl Harbor as your key dates. I posted the data for those dates. They do NOT fit your hypothesis, but rather contradict it.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    But the facts remain the same - between roughly six months after FDR took office and roughly 6 months after Pearl harbor, the DOW went down and the unemployment rate averaged over 17%. It was still 17.2% in 1939 (FIVE times what it was before the crash).
    This despite the fact that FDR (and Hoover) skyrocketed the national debt.
    We have already seen that your DJIA claim is a fraud. What you are trying to do here of course is find the highest point you can once FDR took office and the economy began to rebound (as it in fact did quite quickly) and then compare that with the lowest point you can find in subsequent years, seizing finally on the WWII era when savings went heavily into War Bonds and not the stock market, and then settling on the low point of a Spring 1942 market slump. The DJIA was at 112 early in 1942 and 119 in late 1942. But with all your smokescreens of protest, you somehow managed to zero in on the single low-point of the year -- 92.92 on April 28 -- as if that figure were representative of the times instead of being an extreme outlier that was purposely and specifically selected to serve in furthering a phony partisan argument, That is deliberate and dishonest cherry-picking.

    Meanwhile...

    Depression Era Unemployment Rates...

    1929: 3.2%
    1930: 8.7%
    1931: 15.9%
    1932: 23.6%
    1933: 24.9% <<< FDR inaugurated
    1934: 21.7%
    1935: 20.1%
    1936: 16.9%
    1937: 14.3% <<< FDR heeds calls to balance budget
    1938: 19.0% <<< FDR reverts to Keynesian policies
    1939: 17.2%
    1940: 14.6%
    1941: 9.9%

    Or maybe you'd rather just see it all in pictures...

    depression_gnp-unemp.jpg

    Notice anything about 1933?

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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    So youre saying Im an idiot who doesnt understand english?
    I'm saying that your claim that Percentages are a way to spin real numbers, by making everything relative was incorrect for a very elementary reason. If I had meant to say something else, that's what I would have said.

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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    ...which is why your "FYI, the stimulus bill provided the largest two-year tax cut in US history" claim is meaningless unless you specify what that "other set of things" is... of course you don't want to do that because you don't like being laughed at.
    I would have thought it reasonably obvious that the "other set of things" is the two-year volume of other tax cuts passed in US history. There is in fact quite a bit of comparative data concerning tax cuts produced by staff for the Joint Committee on Taxation. Maybe you should check some of that out.

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    Re: US economy adds 96K jobs, rate falls to 8.1 pct. [W:123]

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    prosperity will trickle down any day now.
    Well I'd hope so seeing how the "Job Creators" have the lowest tax rates they've seen in their life time. Tax breaks are the cure all for everything as we've been told.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    The sad fact is that having a pedophile win is better than having a Democrat in office. I'm all for a solution where a Republican gets in that isn't Moore.

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