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Thread: 30-day war with Iran

  1. #31
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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    And not to mention Egypt and Syria. Also the rest of the world would cut off Israel pretty much.. well not the US. Russia and China would be pissed as well.

    There is no "win" in this situation. Iran will be seen as the victim of Israeli aggression pure and simple.
    As if Syria is going to put their civil war on hold to invade Israel.

    Strategically speaking, this is perfect timing for Israel. Egypt and Syria have bigger fish to fry. Iraq isn't going to invade Israel and I have serious doubts about Jordon participating without the rest of the Arab states.

  2. #32
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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    I don't follow. You are saying that an Israeli strike on Iran would compel... what? An Egyptian offensive against its neighbor despite all the evidence to the contrary? Or that the Syrian government mired upon the brink of collapse and expending all of its military energy to crush a rebellion would re-marshal (somehow) its forces for a serious attempt on Israel? The only thing I see value in, is the Syria scenario, and for other reasons.
    ?
    Egypt is in transition and that is dangerous. Egyptians already have issues with Israel, both historically, but also recently after the IDF attack on Egyptian security forces a few years back. That is still not forgotten. Also the new President is dividing the county and nothing unites a country like a common enemy and war. And dont forget, Egypt has been getting more military funding than Israel for many years and has a very modern military.

    Now Syria aint the problem... Lebanon is... Hizbollah and other allies. Plus the Syrian government is not on the brink of collapse. They are in fact regaining control of more and more areas lost over the last few months.

    Add to the Palestinians.. oppressed for 50 years and growing larger (population wise) year after year and now dwarfing the Jewish population...Do you think Israel has the manpower not only to defend against attacks from the north or/and south plus quell an internal uprising while defending against retaliatory attacks from Iran?

    Point is, if Israel attacks, they will be seen as the aggressor, which never goes down well in public opinion and has a tendency to unite people. Add to that pictures of dead women and children or a nuclear cloud over an Iranian city and you have a problem. How long could Israel survive if Europe and the US suddenly pulled the plug? Not very long. Now the US might not, but Europe would if the destruction and death toll is too high. Russia and China would be utterly pissed as well, and that means something. Remember Russia has quite a few troops stationed relatively close to Israel. And lets not forget the oil price and what it would do to the US economy.... but that is a whole other discussion.

    So in conclusion... Israel attacking Iran at this point in time would be beyond idiotic and quite hard at that... if you look at the logistics.
    PeteEU

  3. #33
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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by What if...? View Post
    Iran is psychotic (but changing as the more radical elements die off).

    But i find it hard to believe theyre suicidal.

    If they lob a nuke at Israel it will be the end of them.

    Iran chucks one of its couple of potential future "primitive" nukes and Israel turns Iran into a sheet of glass with its plentiful, precision targetable, thermonuclear weapons.

    "Preemption" is the ULTIMATE slippery slope.

    "They have FIRE. Its only a matter of time before the bombs start to fall."

    If we had allowed the civilian nuclear program that Iran demonstrably NEEDS, the one where fuel rods are provided and exchanged, we could have possibly avoided this mess.

    But no, we let Israel drag us around like theres a ring in our nose.
    Unlike the firebreathing evangelicals that are looking forward to a regional war for the existence of Israel because they think it will herald the Second Coming, I am quite sure that Iran is merely looking to become a regional counterweight to Israel and be the one country in the M.E. that has a legitimate military threat to them, so that they can wield larger influence in policy making. It makes perfect sense. North Korea proves how well nuclear bombs deter opposing nations to hasty action.

    It also makes perfect sense that Israel is not interested in having the status quo change. If I have to choose a side, I like what Israel represents better than what Iran represents.
    The morality of abortion is not a religious belief, any more than the morality of slavery, apartheid, rape, larceny, murder or arson is a religious belief. These are norms of the natural law of mankind and can be legislated even in a completely religionless society.

  4. #34
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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    As if Syria is going to put their civil war on hold to invade Israel.
    They dont need too. They have Lebanon and Hizbollah.

    Strategically speaking, this is perfect timing for Israel.
    Then you are piss-poor at strategy. Best timing would have been when Mubark was in still in power and the US was in control of Iraq.

    Egypt and Syria have bigger fish to fry.
    Syria might have bigger fish to fry, but those fish are loosing as it stands now. Assad is winning the civil war.

    Egypt has a massive modern military, that has a grudge against Israel, and a new President that needs to unite the country, and there is no better way to do that than going to war with their traditional enemy who did just a few years ago kill a few Egyptian security forces and never said sorry.

    Iraq isn't going to invade Israel
    A bit hard since they dont have a border with Israel. Exposing your lack of strategic thinking again.. tsk.

    and I have serious doubts about Jordon participating without the rest of the Arab states.
    Jordan has changed. The King is weak compared to his father. The Palestinian population is now dominating in Jordan.

    Plus funny how you missed the large amount of Palestinians within Israel control areas...
    PeteEU

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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    And not to mention Egypt and Syria. Also the rest of the world would cut off Israel pretty much.. well not the US. Russia and China would be pissed as well.

    There is no "win" in this situation. Iran will be seen as the victim of Israeli aggression pure and simple.

    When the leader of a massively larger county next is in the last stage of obtaining both nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them, while vowing to wipe your country off the face of the earth, possibly what other people think isn't the priority.

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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckBerry View Post
    Unlike the firebreathing evangelicals that are looking forward to a regional war for the existence of Israel because they think it will herald the Second Coming, I am quite sure that Iran is merely looking to become a regional counterweight to Israel and be the one country in the M.E. that has a legitimate military threat to them, so that they can wield larger influence in policy making. It makes perfect sense. North Korea proves how well nuclear bombs deter opposing nations to hasty action.

    It also makes perfect sense that Israel is not interested in having the status quo change. If I have to choose a side, I like what Israel represents better than what Iran represents.
    I'm of the opinion that neither side is reasonable and its past time to stop taking sides and start knocking heads together.

    Israel behaves like a bully child far too often. The Chihuahua standing between the feet of the bulldog.

    I feel theres a line between helping and enabling that we have crossed in our relationship with Israel.
    Anyone wondering what I'm talking about start here:
    The Psychology of Persuasion

  7. #37
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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Egypt is in transition and that is dangerous. Egyptians already have issues with Israel, both historically, but also recently after the IDF attack on Egyptian security forces a few years back. That is still not forgotten. Also the new President is dividing the county and nothing unites a country like a common enemy and war. And dont forget, Egypt has been getting more military funding than Israel for many years and has a very modern military.

    Now Syria aint the problem... Lebanon is... Hizbollah and other allies. Plus the Syrian government is not on the brink of collapse. They are in fact regaining control of more and more areas lost over the last few months.

    Add to the Palestinians.. oppressed for 50 years and growing larger (population wise) year after year and now dwarfing the Jewish population...Do you think Israel has the manpower not only to defend against attacks from the north or/and south plus quell an internal uprising while defending against retaliatory attacks from Iran?

    Point is, if Israel attacks, they will be seen as the aggressor, which never goes down well in public opinion and has a tendency to unite people. Add to that pictures of dead women and children or a nuclear cloud over an Iranian city and you have a problem. How long could Israel survive if Europe and the US suddenly pulled the plug? Not very long. Now the US might not, but Europe would if the destruction and death toll is too high. Russia and China would be utterly pissed as well, and that means something. Remember Russia has quite a few troops stationed relatively close to Israel. And lets not forget the oil price and what it would do to the US economy.... but that is a whole other discussion.

    So in conclusion... Israel attacking Iran at this point in time would be beyond idiotic and quite hard at that... if you look at the logistics.
    Egypt is in transition, but I disagree that it is dangerous. The Egyptian government has so far proven exceptionally unwilling to do anything close to abrogating the peace agreement, and after the deaths of dozens of Egyptian soldiers from Islamist militants coming from Gaza and in the northern Sinai they have focused their efforts, with Israeli approval and coordination, on fighting and suppressing those groups. An Israeli attack on Iran would hardly be greeted with greater anger in the Arab world than the lack-luster response to Israel's campaign in Gaza which elicited mostly muted criticism in part because of a perceived proxy link between Hamas and Iran. I find it terribly unconvincing to think that when the Iranian air defense grid goes down the Egyptian response will be to shift some divisions to the Sinai, especially as the military in Egypt is vociferously opposed to such a confrontation.

    As for Syria, you're right the issue is Lebanon. Though I would strongly dispute that the Syrian government is regaining control, it is fighting for control of Aleppo and will likely succeed but its control of the countryside has been diminishing. Jeffery White has a new report out on this from WINEP, and Riab just gave a press conference in Amman basically alluding to this truth.

    As for Hezbollah, yes they are a problem but not an existential one, and their position is precarious with the slow motion collapse and exhaustion of the Syrian government across the border. They cannot count on the same support of support structures and resupply corridors that they had in 2006, which despite propaganda they still suffered tremendously in.

    As for the Palestinians, yes of course Israel has the manpower to fight Hezbollah and Hamas. That isn't that difficult to conclude. Neither requires extraordinary 'manpower' unless the goal is the actual suppression and destruction of large portions of Hezbollah, and even then yes obviously they have the manpower. As for fighting off an Iranian retaliation it doesn't require that much to man an ARROW, a Patriot, a THAAD, or an Iron Dome battery. I'm also pretty sure the Navy and the Airforce are well staffed.

    Yes they will be seen as the aggressor, and in my opinion they will not launch an attack--yet. They are waiting for the perfect constellation. They are hoping for, and have been hoping for, the leash to be taken off Saudi Arabia and Turkey and for the US to give its aggressive assent to supplying the Syrian opposition and accelerating the collapse of the regime. If the Syrian government goes down, the last reason they have to wait disappears. They no longer need to worry about a last ditch effort for Assad to use Israel as a means to coalesce the opposition around them, or to force regional actors to shift their attentions. Once Assad is gone, they have no reason to wait except for practical considerations of whether or nor the mission is possible.

    Also why would a nuclear cloud rise over an Iranian city? What are you referring to? Furthermore what Russian soldiers are stationed near Israel, and what are you implying? They have a tiny naval garrison at Tarsus but that's it.

    As for logistics, yes an attack on Iran is difficult but this is the first time people have seriously proposed an Israeli strike that involves ballistic and cruise missiles degrading Iranian defensive infrastructure. If Israel can remove that threat remotely with a Jericho and Popeye-Turbo missile offensive then they have no real obstacle to hitting their targets safely except for inflight refueling and securing permission from flyover states like Saudi Arabia, which it has been rumored before may already be secured.

  8. #38
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    Re: 30-day war with Iran

    I think the Israeli minister's estimate is a couple zero's short. When I first saw the headline, my alzheimers brain said ... no way. The I got to thinking, if the Israeli's demonstrate that the attack is strictly against the Mullah's and the Revolutionary Guard, then the Iranian people may rise up and get rid of them all.

    Now there's hope for a change.

    A L

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