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Thread: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by Gimmesometruth View Post
    Any "spike" caused by QE in the commodity markets (and I have yet to see anyone show where they existed) was imaginary since the long term rise since 2003 still exists because of the factors already explained. The near linear rise as not been curved at the points in time when the QE's occurred. The long term trend has not changed. The QE's were not responsible then....or now.
    1) If you are using your CPI charts as a measurement of commodity prices, that is inaccurate (imo).

    As I stated before (and showed with links) other then oil/gas, raw commodity prices have VERY little directly to do with the CPI. Finished goods and non-commodity based items/services are the vast majority of the source for calculating the CPI.


    2) Yes, commodities increased even after the Great Recession began.

    Why would that be?

    Obviously if a massive western recession is going on - then commodity prices should collapse. But they didn't. Why? Because of all the huge amounts of 'cheap' money that western governments and central banks (including the Fed's QE1 and 2 over $2.3 trillion) began pouring into their economies starting 2007/08.

    Now that QE1 and 2 have faded and the economies (imo) have gotten used to the massive stimuli that government fiscal deficits are providing...the price of commodities has faded somewhat.

    Look at the price of oil as an example:

    Crude Oil Price History

    On Feb. 13/09, it was at $37.51/barrel (from a high of over $125 less then 9 months earlier).

    Yet despite the fact that Great Recession was in full swing and oil prices should be continuing to fall or stay as is - what happens?

    They start steadily rising to almost double that price by June 12...and it certainly was not because of oil shortages.

    It was mostly (imo) 'cheap' money being poured into western economies.

    BTW - the massive $1.7 trillion QE1 began in late '08.

    And let's not forget Bush's stimuli and TARP and ARRA and $1+ trillion U.S. deficits starting with Bush's last budget, etc....

    All this 'cheap' money artificially stimulating economies and stock markets and commodity markets.


    And when QE3 is announced, oil and gold/silver and other commodities will jump again.

    Heck - they jump even when a rumour of QE3 rears it's head.


    Look, you don't want to believe it? Fine...don't.

    But the facts and the timelines are too coincidental imo.

    You pour trillions of dollars into an economy from outside sources (in this case - a printing press, in essence) and there has to be somewhere for all that money to go. And since interest rates and bond yields are ridiculously low - they are not going into savings and bonds (except the latter when the market panics).
    And they are not going into real estate (so far).
    What is left?
    Equities and commodities.


    You watch.

    When QE3 is announced (which I think will not be until after the election - unless the economy collapses before then); assuming it is big (like $700-800 billion at least), then within 3 months, gold/silver will jump by 20% and oil by at least 10-15%. And most other commodities will rise as well (though food stuffs may fall once the American drought ramifications work themselves through the market - imo).
    Last edited by DA60; 08-04-12 at 07:06 PM.

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Just goes to show how little this Administration knows about the private sector. The private sector is not going to create jobs when it is demonized and threatened with higher taxes. Incentive drives all personal behavior and that is something Obama will never understand.
    How in the hell can Nobrains claim to know anything about the private sector when he's never worked for a private company a day in his life? That's like a heart surgeon coming along and acting like he knows how to do heart surgery and he's never done one. Damn that man is a dumbass, and worse yet, a dumbass who can't admit he ****ed up. Just say "Hey, I really thought my plan was going to help. But it didn't. Things are worse now and I goofed." At least then I could respect the man.

    We used to have someone at our facility who was just like Obama. He would screw up and then blame others. That man is no longer employed with our facility. I, on the other hand, immediately, even before the big boss found out I goofed, went to his face and told him "Look man, I screwed up. This is what happened, this is what I learned, and this is what I will do to ensure this will never happen again." I've been made facility manager and I'm fixing to have more facilities built that I will also oversee, in addition to more employees.

    Responsibility......take it, Mr President, take responsibility for what you have done.

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by dontworrybehappy View Post
    How in the hell can Nobrains claim to know anything about the private sector when he's never worked for a private company a day in his life? That's like a heart surgeon coming along and acting like he knows how to do heart surgery and he's never done one. Damn that man is a dumbass, and worse yet, a dumbass who can't admit he ****ed up. Just say "Hey, I really thought my plan was going to help. But it didn't. Things are worse now and I goofed." At least then I could respect the man.
    Yes, the private sector is indeed as complex, nuanced, and knowledge intensive as heart surgery. Profit margins are a concept that simply escape all but a select few intellectual giants among the masses of mere mortals.

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by dontworrybehappy View Post
    How in the hell can Nobrains claim to know anything about the private sector when he's never worked for a private company a day in his life? That's like a heart surgeon coming along and acting like he knows how to do heart surgery and he's never done one. Damn that man is a dumbass, and worse yet, a dumbass who can't admit he ****ed up. Just say "Hey, I really thought my plan was going to help. But it didn't. Things are worse now and I goofed." At least then I could respect the man.

    We used to have someone at our facility who was just like Obama. He would screw up and then blame others. That man is no longer employed with our facility. I, on the other hand, immediately, even before the big boss found out I goofed, went to his face and told him "Look man, I screwed up. This is what happened, this is what I learned, and this is what I will do to ensure this will never happen again." I've been made facility manager and I'm fixing to have more facilities built that I will also oversee, in addition to more employees.

    Responsibility......take it, Mr President, take responsibility for what you have done.
    Hope Obama supporters read your post because you nailed it. Obama's resume showed zero leadership skills along with no executive or even private sector experience so when he took office he thought leadership was telling people what to do and then blaming them when it went wrong. A leader can never delegate responsibility and when you tell some else to do something and they fail it is your failure just like theirs. People are going to fail, that is human nature so when you do fail do what you did, you didn't blame someone else, you fessed up to the mistake. I can tell you that your boss appreciated the face to face acknowledgement and accepting responsibility for the mistake. You are in a higher position now because of that.

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    gee, John McCain didn't work in the private sector. Did you guys screwup or something?


    Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk


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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    I guess I'll point out again that some of the worst presidents we've ever had were very successful businessmen.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    gee, John McCain didn't work in the private sector. Did you guys screwup or something?


    Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk
    Obama record, 15% U-6
    23000 plus unemployed/under employed Americans
    100 million Americans on some sort of govt. dependence
    Record number of people on food stamps
    1.5% GDP Growth
    5.4 trillion added to the debt in less than 4 years.

    For the first time in his life he has a record that he has to defend. Keep running from it

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    I guess I'll point out again that some of the worst presidents we've ever had were very successful businessmen.
    Any one in the private sector that had the results Obama has after being on the job the same amount of time as Obama would be fired.

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    Re: Jobless rate rises to 8.3 percent, hiring picks up but still falling short

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Obama record, 15% U-6
    23000 plus unemployed/under employed Americans
    100 million Americans on some sort of govt. dependence
    Record number of people on food stamps
    1.5% GDP Growth
    5.4 trillion added to the debt in less than 4 years.

    For the first time in his life he has a record that he has to defend. Keep running from it
    Mean while you didn't answer my question about John McCain and the fact he didn't work in the private sector... Yet the Republican party nominated him anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Any one in the private sector that had the results Obama has after being on the job the same amount of time as Obama would be fired.
    Not true. They'd be called a turnaround specialist and given an eight-figure salary.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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