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Thread: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

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    Re: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

    Quote Originally Posted by GJ
    I'd be interested to know the source of your statistic.
    Political parties in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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    Re: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

    You need to either start reading your links before you post them or stop using Wikipedia. According to your link there were 72 million registered dems....in 2004! LOL. As of 2011 it was down to 42 million. Of course it is Wikipedia. Maybe somebody will go in and change it again before you read this reply.

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    Re: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

    Quote Originally Posted by jerry7 View Post
    You need to either start reading your links before you post them or stop using Wikipedia. According to your link there were 72 million registered dems....in 2004! LOL. As of 2011 it was down to 42 million. Of course it is Wikipedia. Maybe somebody will go in and change it again before you read this reply.
    I originally got the numbers from a different site but couldn't locate it. In any case, BOTH parties' registrations have declined since 2004 ... if you read the link. And in fact, the proportion of Democrats to Republicans actually INCREASED as a result (1.4:1 versus 1.3:1). So, if a poll *only* has 11% more registered Democrats than Republicans, then Democrats are actually UNDERrepresented in the poll relative to the population of registered voters. Oops!
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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    Re: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    One, there are about 72 million registered Democrats versus about 55 million registered Republicans, so an accurate poll sample SHOULD show more Democrats than Republicans. And two, virtually all polls employ weighting to adjust the sample pool to national statistics.
    Obviously you didn’t take the time to read the poll and understand the demographics mentioned in the OP. Do you think descriptions like ‘not very strong Democrat’, ‘independent/lean Democrat’, ‘not very strong Republican’, ‘independent/lean Republican’ (page 26) sound like ‘registered’?...another FAIL

    …try again.
    "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure" - 2006 Senator Obama...leadership failure indeed!

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    Re: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    I originally got the numbers from a different site but couldn't locate it. In any case, BOTH parties' registrations have declined since 2004 ... if you read the link. And in fact, the proportion of Democrats to Republicans actually INCREASED as a result (1.4:1 versus 1.3:1). So, if a poll *only* has 11% more registered Democrats than Republicans, then Democrats are actually UNDERrepresented in the poll relative to the population of registered voters. Oops!
    According to the Pew Research Center (an actual, legitimate source) democratic registration is down 4% since 2008 while republicans are down 1% and independents up 6%. If you include independents who are leaners its dems 48%, reps 40%. This is down from a 15 point democrat lead in 2008. Democrats held a 15 point advantage in 2008, exit polling revealed 7% more dems voted and Obama won by 7 points. This was with a crazed democratic electorate. The enthusiasm is gone. It is very likely that more republicans will vote this time, similar to 2010. There is no way that a poll overrepresenting democrats by 11% that gives Obama a 6 point lead is good news for Obama. In fact it is a disaster. This poll is an attempt to shape the news, not reflect it. It is designed to depress republican votes by attempting to convince people that an Obama win is inevitable. It's not going to work this time.
    Section 9: Trends in Party Affiliation | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

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    Re: NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

    Quote Originally Posted by jerry7 View Post
    According to the Pew Research Center (an actual, legitimate source) democratic registration is down 4% since 2008 while republicans are down 1% and independents up 6%. If you include independents who are leaners its dems 48%, reps 40%. This is down from a 15 point democrat lead in 2008. Democrats held a 15 point advantage in 2008, exit polling revealed 7% more dems voted and Obama won by 7 points. This was with a crazed democratic electorate. The enthusiasm is gone. It is very likely that more republicans will vote this time, similar to 2010. There is no way that a poll overrepresenting democrats by 11% that gives Obama a 6 point lead is good news for Obama. In fact it is a disaster. This poll is an attempt to shape the news, not reflect it. It is designed to depress republican votes by attempting to convince people that an Obama win is inevitable. It's not going to work this time.
    Section 9: Trends in Party Affiliation | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
    As I mentioned above, this is still entirely beside the point. Every major polling firm applies weighting to the pool to bring it in line with national averages. That is why these sorts of attacks are invalid.

    It's funny that you're leveling this criticism at a Wall Street Journal poll, given that the WSJ is a right-leaning, Rupert Murdoch-owned newspaper.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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