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Thread: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends power

  1. #11
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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    it seems the alternative is war with Israel.
    Yeah because Egypt is definitely in a position to fight a war...

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    Yeah because Egypt is definitely in a position to fight a war...
    Absolutely. Allah commands it and will ensure victory.

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Absolutely. Allah commands it and will ensure victory.
    So in actuality you have no evidence of this at all besides perhaps some big talk from small people who have yet to be in control of any armed forces to speak of.

    Not to mention lacking money or resources for a war.

    Not to mention having to move a hell of a lot equipment, vehicles, ordinance and troops through the Sinai desert which isn't exactly going to go unoticed.

    Not to mention they can't even sort their own people out yet, let alone try and sort out Israel.

    I could go on but these three points are enough that even if some radicial fundamentalist seized power in Egypt and tried to start a war he wouldn't even get that effort off the ground.

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    The Egyptian Army never really relinquished control. They simply lent it to the fledgling "democracy", and now the Islamic brotherhood have too many seats and a chance at the Presidency, that's too close to be comfortable, and the Army has closed Parliament down.
    Don't work out, work in.

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Egypt's military has played a strong to dominant role in politics and that role is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Hence, even if the Muslim Brotherhood won the Presidency, its ability to radically alter Egypt's policies and relationships would be limited.
    Egypt's military with the strong support of the US Military and US foreign aid in inumerable CIA projects. Egypt will be just like one of our Latin American "banana republics" where we make sure the management of the country is in the Corporate "clique." It will all be "Mighty Wurlitzered" to sound like a strategic imperitave to support the new military dictatorship. In fact, it is just an attempt to maintain the same management.

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    So in actuality you have no evidence of this at all besides perhaps some big talk from small people who have yet to be in control of any armed forces to speak of.
    On the contrary, they have been in possession of an armed force for many years. They've been using it to conduct low-level warfare against Israel. A portion of their armed force left a couple of decades ago and merged to help form another armed force you may be familiar with.

    Not to mention lacking money or resources for a war.
    There you are wrong. They simply (probably) lack the resources to win.

    Not to mention having to move a hell of a lot equipment, vehicles, ordinance and troops through the Sinai desert which isn't exactly going to go unoticed.
    Oh yeah. Their ability to score conventional tactical surprise would be roughly nil - especially with the US probably sharing satellite imagery. Their ability to ramp up attacks within Israel and from Gaza as a shaping mechanism, however, would not be.

    I could go on but these three points are enough that even if some radicial fundamentalist seized power in Egypt and tried to start a war he wouldn't even get that effort off the ground.
    Ah. You think that he would rather be dethroned (and probably killed) by his own party? Egyptian Islamists have an established policy concerning national leaders who fail them on Israel.



    What you are arguing is actually a mirror argument for one of the most famous Intelligence Failures of the 20th Century: Egypt Will Not Attack Over Yom Kippur Because She Lacks The Ability. Egypt did lack the ability to launch a successful assault - unfortunately the incentives for Egyptian leadership overrode that. The power of the human mind to convince itself of what it wishes to believe is powerful; "Realists" make a critical error when they think of nations as thinking entities that will seek their own self-interest, and they make another when they engage in mirror imaging. All your points make perfect sense... to a generally secular Westerner. To a Believer, they are immaterial.

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    The Egyptian Army never really relinquished control. They simply lent it to the fledgling "democracy", and now the Islamic brotherhood have too many seats and a chance at the Presidency, that's too close to be comfortable, and the Army has closed Parliament down.
    I wonder if they explicitly see themselves as playing a similar function to Turkey's military?

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I wonder if they explicitly see themselves as playing a similar function to Turkey's military?
    They likely see themselves as guarantors of Egypt's stability and interests. They also understand that it's easy for outsiders to advocate for "democracy" that could lead to radicals gaining power, as those outsiders won't have to live with the consequences of such an outcome. That's not the same for Egypt's people. The generals fully understand that the rise of a radical regime would ultimately be harmful to Egypt's interests and people. Not surprisingly, whomever wins the Presidency will have limited powers.

    From Reuters:

    Egypt's Islamists claimed a lead on Monday in vote-counting for the presidential election but the generals who have run the country since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak issued new rules that made clear real power remains with the army.

    A decree from the ruling military council, published as the count got under way on Sunday, spelled out only limited powers for the new head of state and reclaimed for itself the lawmaking prerogatives held by the Islamist-led parliament which the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) dissolved last week.
    Generals guard Egypt power as Islamists claim lead | Reuters

    In other words, there will likely be no radical turn. Instead, Egypt will likely remain committed to a moderate course and one that includes peace with Israel. Such an outcome would be compatible with U.S. interests in the region.

    One can imagine worse outcomes than this. Given what happened in Pakistan following U.S. pressure that forced President Musharraf from office--the evolution of a semi-reliable partner into a generally hostile actor--I'm not going to complain if the military assumes for itself the role of a guarantor of moderation. Hence, at least for now, I will reserve judgment on the military's recent decisions. Having said that, I do hope that basic freedoms for Egypt's people will be protected.

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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Absolutely. Allah commands it and will ensure victory.
    Tell that to Azerbaijan, who supplies the majority of Israel's oil via Turkey.

  10. #20
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    Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

    That Arab spring is something else huh? Yeah, the Muslim Brotherhood will sort it all out for the better.
    I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on whats being proposed here, hed agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute. - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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