So the question isn't if we need a stimulus, it is when, and where?
Don mentioned little mini Stimulus packages such as the payroll tax an things of this nature, but I'm not so sure that this is working, frankly. So where do we "invest" in America, and why should we do it. It's not like we have some perfoming markets and some bad one's, it more like we have all of the markets (cept the indexes) in the US underperforming. We can't say, oh hell yeah, the housing market looks ok, no need to tamper there, or, the auot-industry needs a boost, we should dabble there.. It's ALL bad, not a single good or stand on your own market exists in the US right now, and THAT my friends is very scary, and no CPI, or any other measure is needed for me to be able to predict what's coming. Especially in an election year where notoriously poor economic decisions are made by government, one way or the other, as a matter of historical record.
I hate to say it, but against my beter judgement, I truly believe we need to completely take a real punch at global outsourcing, and if ANY stimulus is spent to any great degree, it should be directed fairly at states that wish to aggressively pursue bringing back jobs by way of manufacturing, or by industry, back into the US. The Fed's should pony up some easing by way of pledged proportional grants to the states that wish to go this route. I suspect all will have there hands out, but IMO, I don't see a way out of this mess anytime soon.
“When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.” - P. J. O’Rourke
“Socialism is great until you run out of someone elses money” Margaret Thatcher
Honestly, this is just my two cents. I respect the fact that both you and Kush are more qualified than I am on these matters. I just firmly believe that extraordinary policy measures require extraordinary circumstances. I dont' believe we should be putting a floor under every minor downtick in prices and growth. Personally, I think this summer will be wild one. If it's anything like the last two, I don't doubt that the Federal Reserve will act. Either way, it should make for an entertaining election season.
"There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio
There are 4.1 million births a year in the US. Now not all these 4.1 million make it to adulthood, and not all are fit enough for jobs and not all, especially women, go out and get jobs once they hit 16-18 and work all their life. Homemakers are still a large part of the female population, and since females account for about half the 4.1 million growth.. then..
There is also 1 million new immigrants (legal) in the US and that is a falling number.
Then you have to start subtracting due to deaths. How many of the 2.4 million deaths a year are under 67?
Add to this the 4 to 5 million people who retire each year and leave the work force, and how many of these were homemakers?
Basically it is not an easy number to calculate since the parameters change constantly.
I think we should be doing a major stimulus in the form of federal/state infrastructure. I think it's a no-brainer ... but for the fact that Republicans would never let it happen (at least under Obama).
"The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."
-- Adam Smith
“Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.”
― Stephen R. Covey