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Thread: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by Aberration View Post
    Its not backwards, we aren't losing jobs. Its just not keeping up.
    You could look at it that way too
    Career Politicians are the Downfall of America

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    The sell off in energy prices over the past month represent short-term volatility and can be considered a healthy correction from highs seen earlier in the year. A 2-month decline in commodity prices is hardly indicative of disinflation.
    CPI is a lagging indicator. However, if one takes a look at the PPI, the 6-month moving average of the annualized change has generally been trending downward since December. At the same time, that moving average has just ticked lower for CPI. Inflation expectations also turned down and expectations can have an impact on future prices on account of adjusted behavior. Disinflation is not falling prices. Disinflation is decelerating price increases.

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    So the question isn't if we need a stimulus, it is when, and where?

    Don mentioned little mini Stimulus packages such as the payroll tax an things of this nature, but I'm not so sure that this is working, frankly. So where do we "invest" in America, and why should we do it. It's not like we have some perfoming markets and some bad one's, it more like we have all of the markets (cept the indexes) in the US underperforming. We can't say, oh hell yeah, the housing market looks ok, no need to tamper there, or, the auot-industry needs a boost, we should dabble there.. It's ALL bad, not a single good or stand on your own market exists in the US right now, and THAT my friends is very scary, and no CPI, or any other measure is needed for me to be able to predict what's coming. Especially in an election year where notoriously poor economic decisions are made by government, one way or the other, as a matter of historical record.

    I hate to say it, but against my beter judgement, I truly believe we need to completely take a real punch at global outsourcing, and if ANY stimulus is spent to any great degree, it should be directed fairly at states that wish to aggressively pursue bringing back jobs by way of manufacturing, or by industry, back into the US. The Fed's should pony up some easing by way of pledged proportional grants to the states that wish to go this route. I suspect all will have there hands out, but IMO, I don't see a way out of this mess anytime soon.


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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    CPI is a lagging indicator. However, if one takes a look at the PPI, the 6-month moving average of the annualized change has generally been trending downward since December. At the same time, that moving average has just ticked lower for CPI. Inflation expectations also turned down and expectations can have an impact on future prices on account of adjusted behavior. Disinflation is not falling prices. Disinflation is decelerating price increases.
    I understand the definition of disinflation. Serious disinflation was occurring in 2010 which was the primary justification for QE2. The evidence of disinflation needed to justify a new round of unsterilized QE in June is simply not there. The recent flattening in the growth rate of official inflation measures is typical when inflation is above target. Of course, inflation expectations and disinflationary pressures should be monitored carefully, but the current data hardly justifies additional quantitative easing. Not to mention, there are certainly diminishing returns to continued rounds of unconventional monetary easing. The Federal Reserve is near capacity when it comes to long-term Treasury purchases, so in my eyes their most probable next step is for a more direct approach to stimulating housing prices.

    Honestly, this is just my two cents. I respect the fact that both you and Kush are more qualified than I am on these matters. I just firmly believe that extraordinary policy measures require extraordinary circumstances. I dont' believe we should be putting a floor under every minor downtick in prices and growth. Personally, I think this summer will be wild one. If it's anything like the last two, I don't doubt that the Federal Reserve will act. Either way, it should make for an entertaining election season.
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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by Snake_Plissken View Post
    Considering we average over 350k births every month and 200k death, 69k is going backwards by a very large amount
    Well... it is not as easy as that... far from it.. which is why even the so called experts that are not partisan hacks (both sides) are seriously looking into revising the "rule of thumb" most politicians and media have been using for years.. because it simply does not fit any more.

    There are 4.1 million births a year in the US. Now not all these 4.1 million make it to adulthood, and not all are fit enough for jobs and not all, especially women, go out and get jobs once they hit 16-18 and work all their life. Homemakers are still a large part of the female population, and since females account for about half the 4.1 million growth.. then..

    There is also 1 million new immigrants (legal) in the US and that is a falling number.

    Then you have to start subtracting due to deaths. How many of the 2.4 million deaths a year are under 67?

    Add to this the 4 to 5 million people who retire each year and leave the work force, and how many of these were homemakers?

    Basically it is not an easy number to calculate since the parameters change constantly.
    PeteEU

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    I think we should be doing a major stimulus in the form of federal/state infrastructure. I think it's a no-brainer ... but for the fact that Republicans would never let it happen (at least under Obama).
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Well... it is not as easy as that... far from it.. which is why even the so called experts that are not partisan hacks (both sides) are seriously looking into revising the "rule of thumb" most politicians and media have been using for years.. because it simply does not fit any more.

    There are 4.1 million births a year in the US. Now not all these 4.1 million make it to adulthood, and not all are fit enough for jobs and not all, especially women, go out and get jobs once they hit 16-18 and work all their life. Homemakers are still a large part of the female population, and since females account for about half the 4.1 million growth.. then..

    There is also 1 million new immigrants (legal) in the US and that is a falling number.

    Then you have to start subtracting due to deaths. How many of the 2.4 million deaths a year are under 67?

    Add to this the 4 to 5 million people who retire each year and leave the work force, and how many of these were homemakers?

    Basically it is not an easy number to calculate since the parameters change constantly.
    If I were to discount everything I've heard until now. Dingbats would still be theory.

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    We're currently in a period of disinflation. Increases in prices are decelerating, as the U.S. economy and some major international economies are decelerating (some have moved back into recession). Certain prices have begun to fall e.g., commodities prices.



    Averting the fiscal cliff will require renewal of significant portions of tax-side stimulus packages that were adopted in 2001 and 2003, among some other changes. Also, he didn't necessarily predict new rounds of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. He suggested that a recession would "most likely emerge in the U.S." without such stimulus.

    If I were to venture a guess, the Fed will not change its interest rates (repeatedly indicated by the Fed) and would probably try another "Operation Twist"-type arrangement rather than full-fledged quantitative easing if things remain on the current trajectory. Additional significant deterioration in Europe and the threat of spillovers/contagion would likely lead the Fed to take additional action that could include QE3, substantial swap agreements to assure liquidity in U.S. and international markets, temporary facilities, and other coordinated measures with the ECB and perhaps other international central banks. The recent notable deceleration in Chinese growth offers another possible macroeconomic shock, but developments in Europe appear to have the greatest possibility of triggering more aggressive monetary policy stimulus.


    In terms of fiscal policy, 2012 campaign dynamics preclude any additional meaningful fiscal stimulus. I also expect that the U.S. will largely avoid the "fiscal cliff," but there will likely be no meaningful medium-term fiscal consolidation. Some smaller stimulative measures might be considered e.g., another renewal of the current reduced payroll tax rates, but those measures would likely be modest and relatively insignificant overall in macroeconomic terms.
    Good post overall, but the bolded section may be the most troubling factor to consider when examining our fiscal future, if Obama or potentially Romney realize the necessity for a direct fiscal stimulus in the near future, the legislative opposition would be nearly insurmountable, handily preventing either candidate to enact measures of any significance. Sheer ideological opposition in the case of Obama, and Romney largely by external political pressures stemming from his own party.

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    Re: US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    Are you implying that is good?
    Yes I am. I am happy that we are adding jobs rather than loosing them.
    “Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.”
    Stephen R. Covey


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