• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

OpportunityCost

OpportunityCost

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 27, 2011
Messages
39,169
Reaction score
9,673
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

By Lucy Madison Topics Polling ,Campaign 2012
CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto. (CBS News) Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.
Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.

Neither candidate, however, has had more than a six-point lead over the other since CBS News/New York Times began conducting head-to-head in polls this January.

Despite recent controversies surrounding issues like same-sex marriage, which Mr. Obama came out in support of last week, the poll indicates that the economy remains the most important issue to voters in the presidential election.
Poll: One in four less likely to back Obama over same-sex marriage
Full poll results Sixty-two percent of registered voters cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election. Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration.
condition-of-the-national-economy-these-days_2.jpg
Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 - months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.
Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama's performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved. Except for the month following the death of Osama bin Laden, when Mr. Obama's approval rating ticked up to 57 percent, this matches highest his approval rating Mr. Obama has enjoyed in two years.
Romney now leads the president among independents, while Mr. Obama has an advantage among moderates. Independents opted for Romney 43 percent to Mr. Obama's 36 percent, whereas moderates supported Mr. Obama 50 percent to Romney's 39 percent.

Both candidates continue to perform well with their political base. The president gets solid support from Democrats and liberals, while Romney is running strong with Republicans and conservatives.

Neither candidate has particularly strong favorability ratings, although Mr. Obama outperforms Romney in that arena: 45 percent of Americans each said they view the president favorably and unfavorably. Only 31 percent gave Romney a favorable rating, while 38 percent gave him a negative rating. Many voters continue to be undecided about Romney or haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion.
Click to expand...

Crosstabs?
CrossTabs NYT-CBS Poll.jpg

36D/30R/34I

I dunno, its an odd poll for CBS and the NYT to be placing at this point in the election but its polling sample is close to most other poll samples. So....what changed?
 
The polls mean very little at this point, with 15 point swings from day to day.
 
AdamT said:
The polls mean very little at this point, with 15 point swings from day to day.
Click to expand...

absolutely true. too many variables, too much time for stuff to happen that can have a major influence on the outcome
 
Romney with a lead among women?

Even with one poll, and one subject to change, and within the margin of error, that is interesting.
 
I realize that, the exception being CBS NYT Polls that have consistently shown an Obama advantage. Even to the extent of polling at plus 9 or plus 11 dem to get there. So its curious they are putting this out now.

That was kind of why I posted it. I dont get what they are doing and why.
 
AdamT said:
The polls mean very little at this point, with 15 point swings from day to day.
Click to expand...

It's a psychological boost. It keeps the money flowing in

Which is, the main ingredient in any Presidential campaign
 
All polls this far out from a Presidential election do is fill in blank space for newspapers and provide fodder for pundits and political junkies like us.:2wave:
 
I think Ill be book marking this post so I can remind Adam and Tree of their reactions to polls for the next 60 days or so.
 
cpwill said:
Romney with a lead among women?

Even with one poll, and one subject to change, and within the margin of error, that is interesting.
Click to expand...

Even more because that is from a CBS/NYT's poll that generally leans the other way. Of course, the immediate response was to say *that* poll was flawed. Go figure.

It might be a slow climb for Romney and slow fall for Obama. Obama can't run on his record, and so far all his attacks on Romney have been pure fail. You can only call someone anti-woman, anti-black, anti-worker, anti- whatever for so long until you run out of stuff to call them. And those with functioning brains can see it is just lame attempts that fail.
 
While these polls don't necessarily tell us specifics, given how far out we are, we can glean some interesting facts from this.

First off, this poll is a poll of registered voters. Usually, the difference between registered voters and likely voters is 1 to 2 points in favor of the Republican. This means that, if the polls are showing an approximately tied race among registered voters, Romney might actually have the advantage when it comes to the actual election.

The poll also shows Romney gaining with women and moderates. This could be statistical noise, but it's something to keep an eye on. If other polls show similar trends, this could bode well for Romney.

The poll shows Obama gaining with liberal voters. This could be a good sign for Obama, as it could mean that Obama's SSM support is rallying his base, which is important for the ground game. If Obama's supporters get out and get people voting, that will reduce Romney's registered-to-likely voter margin.

Lastly, the poll shows that Obama's approval rating is on the rise. Again, this could be statistical noise, or this might be in response to his SSM announcement. With approximately half the country supporting SSM, the uptick in approval rating might be log-cabin republicans and libertarians now approving of Obama, but that won't necessarily translate into votes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom