Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

  1. #1
    Sage
    OpportunityCost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 09:11 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    16,719

    Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

    By Lucy Madison Topics Polling ,Campaign 2012
    CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto. (CBS News) Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
    According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.
    Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.

    Neither candidate, however, has had more than a six-point lead over the other since CBS News/New York Times began conducting head-to-head in polls this January.

    Despite recent controversies surrounding issues like same-sex marriage, which Mr. Obama came out in support of last week, the poll indicates that the economy remains the most important issue to voters in the presidential election.
    Poll: One in four less likely to back Obama over same-sex marriage
    Full poll results Sixty-two percent of registered voters cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election. Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration.
    condition-of-the-national-economy-these-days_2.jpg
    Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 - months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.
    Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama's performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved. Except for the month following the death of Osama bin Laden, when Mr. Obama's approval rating ticked up to 57 percent, this matches highest his approval rating Mr. Obama has enjoyed in two years.
    Romney now leads the president among independents, while Mr. Obama has an advantage among moderates. Independents opted for Romney 43 percent to Mr. Obama's 36 percent, whereas moderates supported Mr. Obama 50 percent to Romney's 39 percent.

    Both candidates continue to perform well with their political base. The president gets solid support from Democrats and liberals, while Romney is running strong with Republicans and conservatives.

    Neither candidate has particularly strong favorability ratings, although Mr. Obama outperforms Romney in that arena: 45 percent of Americans each said they view the president favorably and unfavorably. Only 31 percent gave Romney a favorable rating, while 38 percent gave him a negative rating. Many voters continue to be undecided about Romney or haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion.
    Crosstabs?
    CrossTabs NYT-CBS Poll.jpg

    36D/30R/34I

    I dunno, its an odd poll for CBS and the NYT to be placing at this point in the election but its polling sample is close to most other poll samples. So....what changed?

  2. #2
    Sage
    AdamT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Last Seen
    02-13-13 @ 04:09 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    17,773

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    The polls mean very little at this point, with 15 point swings from day to day.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

  3. #3
    warrior of the wetlands
    TurtleDude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Ohio
    Last Seen
    Today @ 01:16 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    180,567

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The polls mean very little at this point, with 15 point swings from day to day.
    absolutely true. too many variables, too much time for stuff to happen that can have a major influence on the outcome

  4. #4
    Sage
    cpwill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    USofA
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:10 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    57,076

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    Romney with a lead among women?

    Even with one poll, and one subject to change, and within the margin of error, that is interesting.

  5. #5
    Sage
    OpportunityCost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 09:11 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    16,719

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    I realize that, the exception being CBS NYT Polls that have consistently shown an Obama advantage. Even to the extent of polling at plus 9 or plus 11 dem to get there. So its curious they are putting this out now.

    That was kind of why I posted it. I dont get what they are doing and why.

  6. #6
    Sage
    ric27's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Last Seen
    06-15-17 @ 02:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    7,539

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The polls mean very little at this point, with 15 point swings from day to day.
    It's a psychological boost. It keeps the money flowing in

    Which is, the main ingredient in any Presidential campaign

  7. #7
    Sage

    Donc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    out yonder
    Last Seen
    12-06-17 @ 09:26 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    9,426

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    All polls this far out from a Presidential election do is fill in blank space for newspapers and provide fodder for pundits and political junkies like us.
    The haggardness of poverty is everywhere seen contrasted with the sleekness of wealth, the exhorted labor of some compensating for the idleness of others, wretched hovels by the side of stately colonnades, the rags of indigence blended with the ensigns of opulence; in a word, the most useless profusion in the midst of the most urgent wants.Jean-Baptiste Say

  8. #8
    Sage
    OpportunityCost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 09:11 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    16,719

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    I think Ill be book marking this post so I can remind Adam and Tree of their reactions to polls for the next 60 days or so.

  9. #9
    Sage
    Arbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Colorado
    Last Seen
    07-12-16 @ 01:32 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,395
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Romney with a lead among women?

    Even with one poll, and one subject to change, and within the margin of error, that is interesting.
    Even more because that is from a CBS/NYT's poll that generally leans the other way. Of course, the immediate response was to say *that* poll was flawed. Go figure.

    It might be a slow climb for Romney and slow fall for Obama. Obama can't run on his record, and so far all his attacks on Romney have been pure fail. You can only call someone anti-woman, anti-black, anti-worker, anti- whatever for so long until you run out of stuff to call them. And those with functioning brains can see it is just lame attempts that fail.
    "nah i think the way cons want to turn this into a political issue is funny though" - Philly Boss

  10. #10
    Advisor Nick2253's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    SF Bay Area, CA
    Last Seen
    05-15-12 @ 10:14 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    321

    Re: Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

    While these polls don't necessarily tell us specifics, given how far out we are, we can glean some interesting facts from this.

    First off, this poll is a poll of registered voters. Usually, the difference between registered voters and likely voters is 1 to 2 points in favor of the Republican. This means that, if the polls are showing an approximately tied race among registered voters, Romney might actually have the advantage when it comes to the actual election.

    The poll also shows Romney gaining with women and moderates. This could be statistical noise, but it's something to keep an eye on. If other polls show similar trends, this could bode well for Romney.

    The poll shows Obama gaining with liberal voters. This could be a good sign for Obama, as it could mean that Obama's SSM support is rallying his base, which is important for the ground game. If Obama's supporters get out and get people voting, that will reduce Romney's registered-to-likely voter margin.

    Lastly, the poll shows that Obama's approval rating is on the rise. Again, this could be statistical noise, or this might be in response to his SSM announcement. With approximately half the country supporting SSM, the uptick in approval rating might be log-cabin republicans and libertarians now approving of Obama, but that won't necessarily translate into votes.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •