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Thread: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

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    re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    Its actually chasing it out. But your assumption is illuminating.
    Nonsense. The issue is lack of aggregate demand (which can be confirmed by analyzing aggregate sales). If you bothered to read the NIPA table i provided, you will see a dramatic shortfall in private domestic investment that continues to burden employment.

    Crowding out can only occur as the interest rate on government debt diverges from the interest rate on corporate debt. Given 8.1% unemployment, debt spreads on equal grade securities being minuscule (if not negative), there is nothing you can provide that makes the case for such a notion.

    What the state models indicate is that government, in this case comparing apples to apples with different states, can create both a fiscally successful environment, and a fiscally destructive environment. For those that want to know, info so as to compare is easily available.
    Come on now.... If you can relate this statement above to this thread, then by all means. I however believe you are offering this tangent as a means of hiding from the discussion at hand.
    Last edited by Kushinator; 05-04-12 at 04:58 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    But...but....the Dow Jones is up!

    Once again proving "growth" doesn't always mean jobs. This is why the Fed is supposed to balance inflation and unemployment, not inflation and growth.
    You know the time is right to take control, we gotta take offense against the status quo

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    "I should have loved freedom, I believe, at all times, but in the time in which we live I am ready to worship it."

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    re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Question regarding these numbers that come out. Hopefully someone can answer them unbiasedly.

    When they state 115,000 new jobs does this simply mean jobs created? Does it factor in jobs lost? For instance if this week we have 100 jobs and we add in 30 new jobs, but lose 15 jobs in that same span did we create 30 new jobs or 15? The reason I ask (other than I dont know) is that 115,000 jobs added would be a great thing IMO if means we now have 115,000 more jobs in this country than we had previously. However if we created 115,000 new jobs but lost 300,000 then I am not so impressed.

    Furthermore, how is the 8.1% unemployment determined?
    “Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.”
    Stephen R. Covey


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    re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by muciti View Post
    Question regarding these numbers that come out. Hopefully someone can answer them unbiasedly.

    When they state 115,000 new jobs does this simply mean jobs created? Does it factor in jobs lost? For instance if this week we have 100 jobs and we add in 30 new jobs, but lose 15 jobs in that same span did we create 30 new jobs or 15? The reason I ask (other than I dont know) is that 115,000 jobs added would be a great thing IMO if means we now have 115,000 more jobs in this country than we had previously. However if we created 115,000 new jobs but lost 300,000 then I am not so impressed.

    Furthermore, how is the 8.1% unemployment determined?
    Today's employment report has two main segments, the current population survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate(s) and current employment statistics, which is based on payroll data to derive the "jobs" number of 115,000 this month.

    The CPS essentially surveys 50,000 households every month (on the 12th i believe) and takes into consideration different geographical locations of the nation to provide a well rounded report. Then, the BLS employs various time-series statistical techniques that take into consideration previous data to derive the unemployment rate, number of people employed, non-civilian population, etc.... According to this survey and the techniques involved, the U3 unemployment rate fell from 8.2% to 8.1%.

    The CES surveys 400,000 businesses that employ something like 50 million employees. Similar to the CPS, the CES uses time-series analysis to derive the "job gains" or "job losses" figure along with various industry breakdowns (like how many construction jobs were lost or gained). According to the establishment data, 115,000 jobs were created in April, while the figures from February and March were revised upward from 240,000 to 259,000 and from 120,000 to 154,000 respectively.

    As far as the unemployment rate is concerned, they simply take the figures derived from the data and simply divide each respective employment statistic (from U1 to U6) by the number of people in the workforce. Remember, unemployment is defined as a person who is actively seeking employment, but for some reason is unable to find said employment. The UE rate is simply the ratio that is extrapolated using the data and statistics derived from the survey.

    Given that the CPS and the CES differ in population parameters, it is entirely possible for there to be positive CES data and positive CPS unemployment ratios and vise versa (negative job gains and falling unemployment rates).
    Last edited by Kushinator; 05-04-12 at 05:45 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    Amazing, just amazing all of the right wingers who expect government to be the solution to the problem. Change the president, and unemployment will drop, and we'll all live happily ever after.

    The country is in deep doo doo, no question. Unemployment is much higher than advertised. Fewer than half of recent college grads have jobs that reflect their level of education. The rest are either unemployed or flipping burgers (or similar). The high school dropouts, and there are a lot of them, are pretty much unemployable. What are they doing? Meanwhile, since fewer are paying taxes, being unemployed and all, and since the feds have been on a spending spree for decades now, we seem to be acquiring something of a debt.

    The Congress is dysfunctional, totally tied up in knots with hyperpartisan lack of willingness to do anything that makes the dreaded other side look good, regardless of what is needed for the country.

    and we're looking for a superman to ride his white horse into the White House and set it all right. It ain't gonna happen, folks. No one person is going to get us out of the doldrums we're in now.
    Half the battle is for the president to stop acting like he can fix it with more government and taxes. Private business doesn't like more government; it likes less.

    The private sector is scared senseless of what Obama might do next to them. Take away that fear, and let private enterprise get to work on the problem.

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    re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Today's employment report has two main segments, the current population survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate(s) and current employment statistics, which is based on payroll data to derive the "jobs" number of 115,000 this month.

    The CPS essentially surveys 50,000 households every month (on the 12th i believe) and takes into consideration different geographical locations of the nation to provide a well rounded report. Then, the BLS employs various time-series statistical techniques that take into consideration previous data to derive the unemployment rate, number of people employed, non-civilian population, etc.... According to this survey and the techniques involved, the U3 unemployment rate fell from 8.2% to 8.1%.

    The CES surveys 400,000 businesses that employ something like 50 million employees. Similar to the CPS, the CES uses time-series analysis to derive the "job gains" or "job losses" figure along with various industry breakdowns (like how many construction jobs were lost or gained). According to the establishment data, 115,000 jobs were created in April, while the figures from February and March were revised upward from 240,000 to 259,000 and from 120,000 to 154,000 respectively.

    As far as the unemployment rate is concerned, they simply take the figures derived from the data and simply divide each respective employment statistic (from U1 to U6) by the number of people in the workforce. Remember, unemployment is defined as a person who is actively seeking employment, but for some reason is unable to find said employment. The UE rate is simply the ratio that is extrapolated using the data and statistics derived from the survey.

    Given that the CPS and the CES differ in population parameters, it is entirely possible for there to be positive CES data and positive CPS unemployment ratios and vise versa (negative job gains and falling unemployment rates).
    So if I understand that correctly, we have 115,000 more jobs this month in this country than we had last month?

    Remember, unemployment is defined as a person who is actively seeking employment, but for some reason is unable to find said employment.
    Is there a report that shows us the actual percentage of adults who are working?
    “Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.”
    Stephen R. Covey


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    Re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Half the battle is for the president to stop acting like he can fix it with more government and taxes. Private business doesn't like more government; it likes less.

    The private sector is scared senseless of what Obama might do next to them. Take away that fear, and let private enterprise get to work on the problem.
    Private enterprises have contracted because of a lack of demand, not because of the federal government. I'm in favor of lessening regulatory burdens as a whole, but to point to government intervention as the main culprit for our employment woes would be naive.
    Last edited by a351; 05-04-12 at 06:23 PM.

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    Re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    You drew a conclusion and assumed an inference that I did not make. And all the debt increasing didn't come from just a few companies that failed but from a financial sector that held the balance of the markets in their grasp. Maybe exerting a little of that regulatory control would've stemmed the losses of toxic paper that amassed over the last decade.
    You took my post a little too serious, but its based on truth though. A lot of money went to the very few and none of it, regardless of what the obamites and dems say about it saving creating yadda yadda, none of it went to anything productive, at all. I feel bad for true liberals whom I can respect although not agree. They voted for change and ended up with a steroided version of the worst of Bush era policies. I believe many are simply in a state of denial of how badly they have been had.

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    Re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by muciti View Post
    So if I understand that correctly, we have 115,000 more jobs this month in this country than we had last month?
    According to payroll establishment data, that would be correct.

    Is there a report that shows us the actual percentage of adults who are working?
    You mean the number of people employed divided by the non institutional population? The employment:population ratio is 58.4%, and can be found in table A from here.
    Last edited by Kushinator; 05-04-12 at 06:34 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Only 115,000 jobs added in April; unemployment rate dips to 8.1 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by 00timh View Post
    You took my post a little too serious, but its based on truth though. A lot of money went to the very few and none of it, regardless of what the obamites and dems say about it saving creating yadda yadda, none of it went to anything productive, at all. I feel bad for true liberals whom I can respect although not agree. They voted for change and ended up with a steroided version of the worst of Bush era policies. I believe many are simply in a state of denial of how badly they have been had.
    Your uninformed opinion is still, well uninformed....
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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