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Economy's Biggest Drag Right Now Is Government

j-mac

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Government has become its own worst enemy when it comes to the economy, with public spending putting a damper on growth that otherwise continues at a steady if unspectacular pace.
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Dennis Flaherty | Photographer's Choice RF | Getty Images


Friday's gross domestic product report confirmed what a drag government can be: While consumer spending grew at a 2.9 percent clip, state and local governments cut back spending by 1.2 percent on an annualized basis and the federal government pulled back by 5.6 percent.
As a result, the GDP number showed just a 2.2 percent improvement. The report disappointed economists, some of whom had the number as high as 3 percent and beyond, and cast an uncertain future on a stock market dependent on Federal Reserve stimulus for growth.
"None of this is all that surprising, so where is the miss?" wondered Brown Brothers Harriman global currency strategist Marc Chandler, after noting some fairly pedestrian and in-line quarterly growth results. "Contrary to what passes as conventional wisdom, the main drag is coming from the government itself."

News Headlines


I love it, even NBC is straying from the re elect Obama narrative. With a whole summer to go, seems like it'll be a hot one for the administration.


j-mac
 
I'm trying to understand what your point is here. Are you citing a need for an hike in government spending?
 
So public spending is cut back...GDP growth slows...and you're complaining that government is dragging down the economy? That makes absolutely no sense.
 
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I'm trying to understand what your point is here. Are you citing a need for an hike in government spending?


congratulations! With my track record of arguing for less government, you have given the single most ironic post EVER!!!! And in one shot!

Do me a favor and rush out to the kitchen and grab yourself a cookie!


j-mac
 
So public spending is cut back...GDP growth slows...and you're complaining that government is dragging down the economy? That makes absolutely no sense.

The point is that Obama's vision of central control is a failure.

j-mac
 
congratulations! With my track record of arguing for less government, you have given the single most ironic post EVER!!!! And in one shot!

Do me a favor and rush out to the kitchen and grab yourself a cookie!


j-mac

The point is that Obama's vision of central control is a failure.

j-mac
Actually, the article cited a lack of spending and federal investment as the cause of lackluster growth. Little did I know you would post an article simply because they criticized someone of a differing party, and completely ignore the content within.
 
congratulations! With my track record of arguing for less government, you have given the single most ironic post EVER!!!! And in one shot!

Do me a favor and rush out to the kitchen and grab yourself a cookie!


j-mac

What's ironic is you citing an article which states that government outlays (including federal outlays) are decreasing, and then continuing to bitch about "Obama's vision of central control."
 
I love it, even NBC is straying from the re elect Obama narrative. With a whole summer to go, seems like it'll be a hot one for the administration.

It sounds like you don't even understand the implication of your own article: Reduced government spending = drag on the economy. I completely agree; thanks for posting this.

This thread is an epic fail. But thanks for making a fool of yourself. :lamo
 
Ok, I went back and re read...I got the article wrong. Long week I guess...Anyway, this is insane. we need to create MORE funny money out of thin air, based on increased borrowing?

I got the thread wrong no big deal...Libs are getting this all wrong and we will collapse. So yeah, let's keep poking fun at me....It's all good.


j-mac
 
Rarely has a thread backfired so violently. :2rofll:
 
So public spending is cut back...GDP growth slows...and you're complaining that government is dragging down the economy? That makes absolutely no sense.


Government spending and the threat of more taxation is causing people to slow down their spending. It's also causing small businesses to decide not to expand their operations.

Bottom line is, the government didn't create this country--the strongest country with the strongest economy in history--and the government can't end the recession.
 
Government spending and the threat of more taxation is causing people to slow down their spending.

Bull****. The article explicitly states that the latest report cites a surge in consumer spending. You have no idea what you're talking about.

It's also causing small businesses to decide not to expand their operations.

Depends on the business in question, and where you are geographically located. But the primary determinant of whether or not a business owner decides to expand is business demand, not so much tax policy. Besides, 99% of what we call "small businesses" aren't under any threat of increased federal tax hikes under the Obama Administration.

Bottom line is, the government didn't create this country--the strongest country with the strongest economy in history--and the government can't end the recession.

Whatever dude.
 
Bull****. The article explicitly states that the latest report cites a surge in consumer spending. You have no idea what you're talking about.

Other sources I have seen, seem to point to the supposed "surge" to a couple of things.

1. People can't hold off certain durable goods purchase forever, so that may be a temporary jump.

2. Artificial numbers manipulation make things look other than what they are.

Depends on the business in question, and where you are geographically located. But the primary determinant of whether or not a business owner decides to expand is business demand, not so much tax policy. Besides, 99% of what we call "small businesses" aren't under any threat of increased federal tax hikes under the Obama Administration.

Obama, and Co. has stated more than enough times that the threshold of desire to hike tax rate starts at $250K. That is squarely aimed at small business in this country. Expansion also has the threat of Obamacare waiting to be unleashed upon it. This would bankrupt many small businesses hanging on by a thread these days.

Whatever dude.

Ok, so here it is in a nutshell. If someone opposes what you believe you throw up the hand, and that is the end of it? But your rhetoric would suggest that you would be among those saying that it is republicans not working with Obama and Co., when in reality it is really demo's like you saying "do it our way, or STFU"....


j-mac
 
Yep, I deserve that...Can we talk about the article now?


j-mac

It's pretty simple: the recovery is going okay -- not great, but okay -- in the private sector, but it's being hampered by government austerity at the state, and to an extent, the federal level. One of the main things the stimulus did was assist the states, allowing them to minimize layoffs for several years. Now that the stimulus has run out and tax revenues are still somewhat depressed, the states are having to cut payroll, which is offsetting gains in the private sector. The trend is being exacerbated by the Tea Party governors who don't consider government jobs "real" jobs. Fortunately the overall economy is still growing and thus tax revenues are coming back, so hopefully this trend will bottom out soon. The states can only cut payroll so much before they have to start hiring again.
 
It's pretty simple: the recovery is going okay -- not great, but okay -- in the private sector...

I don't think those out there still unemployed, underemployed, losing their homes, destroying their credit, to the tune of a real number closer to 12% would agree here.

So this is now the norm?

but it's being hampered by government austerity at the state, and to an extent, the federal level.

How much 'funny money' can a country create before our money is just plain worthless? Obama deficits dwarf that of Bush's in half the time, and yet Obama called Bush 'unpatriotic' for his, so what does that make Barry?

One of the main things the stimulus did was assist the states, allowing them to minimize layoffs for several years.

In State Government jobs maybe, certainly nothing was done on that level for the private sector whom BTW still is the lion share of jobs.

Now that the stimulus has run out and tax revenues are still somewhat depressed, the states are having to cut payroll, which is offsetting gains in the private sector.

So, you are running out of other peoples money, and you want to blame the failure on the people you just fleeced?

The trend is being exacerbated by the Tea Party governors who don't consider government jobs "real" jobs.

Well, the GSA certainly proved that didn't they? Hell, My company doesn't have a summer picnic, or a Christmas party anymore, Hell, we don't even get a Turkey for Thanksgiving much less a million dollar junket to Vegas....

Fortunately the overall economy is still growing and thus tax revenues are coming back, so hopefully this trend will bottom out soon.

I don't know as if I trust ANY of the numbers coming from the liars in DC anymore...

The states can only cut payroll so much before they have to start hiring again.

Some of it may be cyclical, sure, but look we have to come to the realization that what is being done right now is a failure.

j-mac
 
When you consider that the 1st quarter budget deficit was $320 billion--which is a staggering amount--you can only conclude that the paltry GDP number would even be worse, if not near or below zero, were we living within our means and not counting as economic growth wealth pulled from the future. Our economic condition and what accounts for "growth" nowadays is entirely reliant upon debt and quantitative easing from the FED. What we are experiencing is neither real economic growth, nor sustainable economic policy.
 
I don't think those out there still unemployed, underemployed, losing their homes, destroying their credit, to the tune of a real number closer to 12% would agree here.

I don't think unemployed people would feel great about the economy even if the unemployment rate was 2%. Nonetheless, the private sector has added jobs for 25 consecutive months and the economy is slowly but surely coming back. Too slowly to be sure.

How much 'funny money' can a country create before our money is just plain worthless? Obama deficits dwarf that of Bush's in half the time, and yet Obama called Bush 'unpatriotic' for his, so what does that make Barry?

Literally speaking, we can keep printing money as long as people are willing to buy our debt. And notwithstanding dire predictions on the right, demand for U.S. debt has never been higher despite the fact that we are paying close to zero interest. Thanks to those low interest rates, the cost of maintaining the debt now is actually LOWER than it was in 2007. But obviously we can't keep accumulating debt at this rate. We should be enacting medium and long-term policies to reduce the debt through spending cuts, entitlement reform, and tax increases. Unfortunately neither party has been willing to face reality.

In State Government jobs maybe, certainly nothing was done on that level for the private sector whom BTW still is the lion share of jobs.

The stimulus addressed both private and public sector jobs. Obviously a lot of the state projects that it paid for were carried out by private contractors. And of course it helps private busiensses when public employees aren't laid off. Like everyone else, public employees spend their money at private businesses.

So, you are running out of other peoples money, and you want to blame the failure on the people you just fleeced?

Huh?

Well, the GSA certainly proved that didn't they? Hell, My company doesn't have a summer picnic, or a Christmas party anymore, Hell, we don't even get a Turkey for Thanksgiving much less a million dollar junket to Vegas....

Clearly the GSA outing was a fiasco, but this sort of thing is hardly limited to government. For example, Merrill Lynch gave its CEO an $10 million bonus the year the company lost $11 billion.

Some of it may be cyclical, sure, but look we have to come to the realization that what is being done right now is a failure.

I think the government has basically done the right thing over the last four years. Not perfect, but generally the right moves. But there is only so much the government can do to correct massive recession that arose out of the financial sector. It's just going to take time.
 
I don't think unemployed people would feel great about the economy even if the unemployment rate was 2%. Nonetheless, the private sector has added jobs for 25 consecutive months and the economy is slowly but surely coming back. Too slowly to be sure.

It depends on how you arrive at that 2% number now doesn't it? If your policies have resulted in a shrinking of the labor force that makes the number appear to be declining, then say that indicates 'jobs growth', well, that isn't really honest now is it?

Literally speaking, we can keep printing money as long as people are willing to buy our debt. And notwithstanding dire predictions on the right, demand for U.S. debt has never been higher despite the fact that we are paying close to zero interest. Thanks to those low interest rates, the cost of maintaining the debt now is actually LOWER than it was in 2007. But obviously we can't keep accumulating debt at this rate. We should be enacting medium and long-term policies to reduce the debt through spending cuts, entitlement reform, and tax increases. Unfortunately neither party has been willing to face reality.

I agree with you that we need both parties to cut the crap so to speak, and start leveling with the people. But, if we are placing our bets on the health of the country on the sheer ability to go deeper into debt, and less on real innovation, and basic fundamentals of what built this country, then we are in deep, deep trouble.

The stimulus addressed both private and public sector jobs. Obviously a lot of the state projects that it paid for were carried out by private contractors. And of course it helps private busiensses when public employees aren't laid off. Like everyone else, public employees spend their money at private businesses.

So, by that reasoning, then every job should be a government one?


You are making the argument once again that the wealthy in this country should pay more, and if they don't then it is their fault if the country collapses.

Clearly the GSA outing was a fiasco, but this sort of thing is hardly limited to government. For example, Merrill Lynch gave its CEO an $10 million bonus the year the company lost $11 billion.

GSA is the tip of the iceberg. If you want an argument from me that CEO's that run their business into the ground then jump out with a golden parachute is proper, you won't get it. But that is up to the shareholders of the company. Just as this malfeasance from governmental agencies is up to the voters, and Obama is running from that record, and shifting responsibility. Yet, you and others want us to believe that Obama has done a bang up job?

I think the government has basically done the right thing over the last four years. Not perfect, but generally the right moves. But there is only so much the government can do to correct massive recession that arose out of the financial sector. It's just going to take time.

We don't have that luxury of time. Obama himself said that if his policies didn't produce some real measurable indicators that he laid out, then he would be a one termer....Now, liberals want us to just forget that he said that....Time to pay the piper.


j-mac
 
How much 'funny money' can a country create before our money is just plain worthless?

Depends on the country. In the case of the United States, the answer is: a lot more than we are currently making. Since Obama took office, the inflation rate has varied from a low of -2.1% to a high of 3.9%...and as of last month, it stood at a respectable 2.7%. Additionally, the current interest rate on 1-year treasury bills is 0.19% and the current interest rate on 30-year treasury bonds is 3.12%...nearly the lowest they have ever been. In real terms, investors are literally willing to PAY THE GOVERNMENT to hold their money. If hyperinflation is in our future, the markets sure don't seem to be freaking out about it. Why do you suppose that is?
 
It depends on how you arrive at that 2% number now doesn't it? If your policies have resulted in a shrinking of the labor force that makes the number appear to be declining, then say that indicates 'jobs growth', well, that isn't really honest now is it?

No, it doesn't depend on how you arrive at the number. People who are suffering under any economy will be unhappy. Saying that some people are unhappy doesn't negate the fact that the economy is improving.

I agree with you that we need both parties to cut the crap so to speak, and start leveling with the people. But, if we are placing our bets on the health of the country on the sheer ability to go deeper into debt, and less on real innovation, and basic fundamentals of what built this country, then we are in deep, deep trouble.

I agree.

So, by that reasoning, then every job should be a government one?

No, I don't think that follows at all from what I wrote. In fact it contradict it, because if every job was a public job then public employment couldn't bolster private businesses.

You are making the argument once again that the wealthy in this country should pay more, and if they don't then it is their fault if the country collapses.

No, I didn't make that argument at all. In my view *everyone* needs to pay higher taxes to address our serious debt problem. But I would phase in higher taxes sooner for the wealthy because it would have less impact on growth than higher taxes on the poor and middle class.

GSA is the tip of the iceberg. If you want an argument from me that CEO's that run their business into the ground then jump out with a golden parachute is proper, you won't get it. But that is up to the shareholders of the company. Just as this malfeasance from governmental agencies is up to the voters, and Obama is running from that record, and shifting responsibility. Yet, you and others want us to believe that Obama has done a bang up job?[/quote]

Seems to me that the responsible parties have been fired from GSA. But yeah, any time you have an organization as large as the US government there are going to be abuses. Happens in the private sector too.

We don't have that luxury of time. Obama himself said that if his policies didn't produce some real measurable indicators that he laid out, then he would be a one termer....Now, liberals want us to just forget that he said that....Time to pay the piper.

We don't have a lot of options here, unfortunately. If you cut spending and/or taxes too quickly you will only succeed in sending the economy back into recession, which only makes deficits worse. This is a problem that will have to be fixed over the next 40 or 50 years -- not the next four or five years.
 
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