Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 70

Thread: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

  1. #21
    Sage
    AdamT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Last Seen
    02-13-13 @ 04:09 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    17,773

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    I'm sorry you're going to have to rephrase that.
    Better if you just read the cited article.


    No one is ignoring the demographic trend. It's the accelerated decline in the LFPR due to the weak economy that analysts refer to when talking about U3.
    The point of the Barclays study is that there is not much of an accelerated decline the LFPR, which is also supported by the Chart 2. graph you posted. The graph shows some acceleration in the 16 to 24 group, but that's not uncommon during a recession or down economy. Younger workers are often the first to be let go, and other may choose to stay in school longer when job opportunities are slim.

    The increase in the LFPR which caused U3 to remain unchanged in February is the case in point.
    Right, the argument is not that the effect doesn't exist at all, but rather that it has historically been exaggerated by economists and thus it probably still is being exaggerated by reports like the one from Bofa.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

  2. #22
    Educator a777pilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Flower Mound, in the basement
    Last Seen
    12-07-17 @ 08:49 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    815

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by roughdraft274 View Post
    I've heard estimates of 125,000 jobs a month to keep up with population. I've also heard 250,000, but I can't find either from a very reliable source.
    There are NO reliable sources. You have to do all the research yourself.

    Example: The USA's population grew on the average by 2.8 million per year for the last ten years. Now you figure out how many jobs this economy needs to create to employ those.

    Yes, I understand that census figures are government figures and are subject to manipulation.....hell, it's the government so lying is mandatory.
    I came into this world fighting, screaming and covered in someone else's blood. I have no problem going out the same way.

  3. #23
    Skeptical Optimist
    Rhapsody1447's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Last Seen
    09-20-17 @ 02:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Conservative
    Posts
    1,510

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    Better if you just read the cited article.
    I read it. It would be nice if you could quote the relevant parts of the 4-page article and maybe link to the actual study itself.

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The point of the Barclays study is that there is not much of an accelerated decline the LFPR, which is also supported by the Chart 2. graph you posted. The graph shows some acceleration in the 16 to 24 group, but that's not uncommon during a recession or down economy. Younger workers are often the first to be let go, and other may choose to stay in school longer when job opportunities are slim.
    The point wasn't that the decline isn't accelerated, it's that the factors are more structural than cyclical. There is no denying that the decline has been accelerated:

    ParticipationRateActualProjected.jpg

    Calculated Risk: Comments on the Employment-Population Ratio

    From what I've seen quoted from the Barclays study, Maki attributes 1.4% of the decline in the labor force to structural factors and 0.7% to cyclical factors. This is relatively close to the BofA economic letter and the CBO report. Regardless, it doesn't show "there is virtually no historical support for BofA's hypothesis". The Fed is also looking for an increase in the LFPR as a sign of an improving labor market:

    Quote Originally Posted by Your Article View Post
    Bernanke reflected the views of the Fed's expert staff. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York wrote in December that the decline in labor force participation during the recession was faster than the aging work force alone could explain, raising a chance that the percentage of potential workers actually seeking employment would rise by about a percentage point to 65% by next year.
    Not to mention, the cyclical factors affecting the LFPR was just one of the many points BofA cited in their report. They remain just as skeptical as the economists surveyed in your article

    This recovery's job growth is "not a big accomplishment, because the economy is so much bigger, and more people were put out of work," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist for Mizuho Securities. "There should be a stronger snapback."
    USA TODAY's survey of 48 private economists in January found the median forecast was for 8.4% unemployment in the fourth quarter. The Congressional Budget Office predicted 8.9%, also in January. The Federal Reserve said Jan. 26 that its policymakers saw joblessness at 8.2% to 8.5% through the end of the year, a forecast Fed chairman Ben Bernanke reinforced when he appeared before Congress last week.

    "The decline in the unemployment rate over the past year has been somewhat more rapid than might have been expected, given that the economy appears to have been growing during that time frame at or below its longer-term trend," Bernanke said. "Notwithstanding the better recent data, the job market remains far from normal."
    Hell even Krugman says meh:

    Meh. And I Say That With Feeling - NYTimes.com
    It could have been worse, but the basic story remains the same as it has been for 2 1/2 years: an economy thatís growing, but not enough to feel anything like a real recovery. The measured unemployment rate has trended down for a while, but itís all basically reduced numbers of people actively searching. My favorite measure these days is the employment-population ratio for prime-age workers, which isnít affected by changing demography. Here it is for the past decade; see the trend since the recession officially ended? Neither do I.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

  4. #24
    Sage
    Fletch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Mentor Ohio
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:30 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    15,268

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    I am going to make a prediction here, and I am going to allow for the possibility that it is wishful thinking on my part. But I believe that good economic news in March is going to come back and bit Obama in November. It is the sports equivalent of peaking too soon. Job growth will likely continue, not because of some wonderful central planning by Obama, but because we are in a cyclical recovery. The danger is that the job growth tails off from here. Hiring that is increasing at a decreasing rate will have the appearance of a slowing economy, which wont be good for Obama. The argument that Romney will have to make is that US job growth that barely keeps up with population gains has come at the cost of $6 trillion is new debt, higher prices for food and energy, bigger government, and higher taxes on the horizon.

    Whether Romney can successfully articulate that message is another thing...

  5. #25
    Sage

    Donc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    out yonder
    Last Seen
    12-06-17 @ 09:26 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    9,426

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
    I am going to make a prediction here, and I am going to allow for the possibility that it is wishful thinking on my part. But I believe that good economic news in March is going to come back and bit Obama in November. It is the sports equivalent of peaking too soon. Job growth will likely continue, not because of some wonderful central planning by Obama, but because we are in a cyclical recovery. The danger is that the job growth tails off from here. Hiring that is increasing at a decreasing rate will have the appearance of a slowing economy, which wont be good for Obama. The argument that Romney will have to make is that US job growth that barely keeps up with population gains has come at the cost of $6 trillion is new debt, higher prices for food and energy, bigger government, and higher taxes on the horizon.

    Whether Romney can successfully articulate that message is another thing...
    YABUTT...its such fun to speculate eh?

    Note the part of your post i bolded.
    The haggardness of poverty is everywhere seen contrasted with the sleekness of wealth, the exhorted labor of some compensating for the idleness of others, wretched hovels by the side of stately colonnades, the rags of indigence blended with the ensigns of opulence; in a word, the most useless profusion in the midst of the most urgent wants.Jean-Baptiste Say

  6. #26
    Sage
    Fletch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Mentor Ohio
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:30 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    15,268

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by treedancer View Post
    YABUTT...its such fun to speculate eh?

    Note the part of your post i bolded.
    I agree. My post was pure speculation. But the economy has had a few false starts and a few peaks and valleys since Obama became president. This could very well be a peak. As for your bolded part, I agree there also. Can Romney articulate a coherent assault on Obamanomics? I have my doubts about that, but we shall see.

  7. #27
    Sage

    Donc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    out yonder
    Last Seen
    12-06-17 @ 09:26 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    9,426

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
    I agree. My post was pure speculation. But the economy has had a few false starts and a few peaks and valleys since Obama became president. This could very well be a peak. As for your bolded part, I agree there also. Can Romney articulate a coherent assault on Obamanomics? I have my doubts about that, but we shall see.
    Considering the candidates (Presidential) and the assault on birth control; best lay low and hope for short-term memory loss.
    The haggardness of poverty is everywhere seen contrasted with the sleekness of wealth, the exhorted labor of some compensating for the idleness of others, wretched hovels by the side of stately colonnades, the rags of indigence blended with the ensigns of opulence; in a word, the most useless profusion in the midst of the most urgent wants.Jean-Baptiste Say

  8. #28
    Sage
    apdst's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Bagdad, La.
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:23 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Conservative
    Posts
    76,343

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Seriously, I think the folks on the Right are looking for bad news. In the last 2 years businesses have added nearly 4 million jobs. And Romney continues to say Obama made the recession worse.
    Got a link for that one?
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

  9. #29
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Republic of Florida
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:14 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    14,016

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Got a link for that one?
    I can help.

    Employment Situation Summary

    Feb 2012 Employment - 142.1 million
    Dec 2009 Employment - 138.0 million

    L
    abor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey


    Series Id: LNS12000000
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
    Labor force status: Employed
    Type of data: Number in thousands
    Age: 16 years and over

  10. #30
    Educator a777pilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Flower Mound, in the basement
    Last Seen
    12-07-17 @ 08:49 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    815

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    I can help.

    Employment Situation Summary

    Feb 2012 Employment - 142.1 million
    Dec 2009 Employment - 138.0 million

    L
    So that's 4.1 million jobs in 25 months.

    LOL! Great! That means that in just two years this Administration has added over a million more Americans to the unemployment lines.

    You do understand that this nation needs to produce between 200 and 250 thousand jobs a month just to keep up with population growth?

    This Fool, Bobo, the Post Turtle, is NOT the answer. He IS the problem.
    I came into this world fighting, screaming and covered in someone else's blood. I have no problem going out the same way.

Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •