Page 2 of 7 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 70

Thread: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

  1. #11
    Sage
    j-mac's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    South Carolina
    Last Seen
    12-08-17 @ 03:46 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    30,272
    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    The silence from the "we are all doomed crowd" is deafening.
    I'll chime in and say that although I wish it were stronger, I am happy for those that found employment. Regardless of the election we need some hope these days.

    J-mac

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

  2. #12
    Skeptical Optimist
    Rhapsody1447's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Last Seen
    09-20-17 @ 02:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Conservative
    Posts
    1,510

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    BofA's US Economic Weekly basically nails how I feel on the issue:

    US Economic Weekly

    First, and most commonly observed, the unemployment rate is not only capturing
    changes in employment, but it is also measuring changes in labor force
    participation ( Chart 1). The labor force participation rate measures the percent of
    the working-age population that is either working or searching for employment.
    There are two factors which determine the labor force participation rate:
    demographics (such as baby boomers entering the early retirement years) and
    the health of the economy (per ceptions of whether it is possible to find a job).
    Since the recession began in December 2007, the labor force participation rate
    has declined over 2.0pp to 63.9%, of which 1.2pp was due to population shifts
    into age groups that tend to work less ( Table 1). Since we cannot fight the aging
    process, the downward pressure from the aging population will continue.
    But, we should expect at least part of the cyclical drop in the participation rate to
    reverse as the labor market heals.
    If t he current pace of job creation persists and
    people start to perceive that there are greater job opportunities, discouraged
    workers will return to the labor force. This includes many young adults who went
    back to school rather than face a very tough job market. This means that as job
    growth picks up, so will the participation ra te. That in turn means the drop in the
    unemployment rate will slow even when job growth accelerates.

    Second, not all unemployment is the same . Most of the gain in unemployment
    comes from record high “long-term” unemployment. As Chart 2 shows, there are
    a record number of people who are unemployed for greater than six months. In
    contrast, the short-term unemployment rate has fallen sharply and returned to
    normal levels. This suggests labor misallocation – those with certain skill sets can
    find employment in short order while others can struggle with unemployment for
    some time.

    Finally, the unemployment rate does not capture the quality of jobs. For example,
    it does not distinguish between full-time and part-time jobs. During the recession
    there was a big increase in part-time workers, which has remained high. These
    workers are counted as “employed” even though in reality they are half
    unemployed. In addition, it does not provide information about the quality of jobs
    in regards to compensation or skill se t. This all matters because the standard
    inflation models use the unemployment ra te as a way to determine the amount of
    slack in the economy, and hence wage pressu re. It is therefore useful to control
    for these other factors when using slack models for inflation.

    Bottom line: Don’t be surprised if the unemployment rate remains sticky even once job growth accelerates.

    Second, there are often seasonal distortions. Poor weather conditions during the
    survey week, such as a snow storm, will make it difficult for people to report to
    work. If a non-salary worker does not receive compensation during the survey
    week, it will count as a job loss. The BLS attempts to control for normal seasonal
    swings, but sometimes that creates distortions by over-adjusting the data. This
    may be playing a role in the recent data given the abnormally mild winter. As
    Chart 3 shows, there were considerably fewer reports of people not reporting to
    work as a result of the weather this winter. The average from December through
    February this year was 170,000 workers compared to the historical average of
    290,000 and clearly well below the last two years.


    Simply looking at total job growth gives us a sense of how much more income is
    being generated in the economy. However, it does not tell us how much more we
    should be creating. The US population is steadily expanding, which means we
    need to see a constant gain in jobs to simply keep up with the expanding labor
    force. With population growth of nearly 1% a year, we need to see job gains of
    about 110,000 a month just to meet the expanding population.
    This is considered
    the “breakeven” level for the unemployme nt rate. However, as discussed above,
    the unemployment rate is also affected by changes in the participation rate. In this
    cycle, the sharp drop in t he participation rate prevented a bigger rise in the
    unemployment rate.

    As such, a better way to look at the health of the job market is to look at the ratio
    of employment to population (Chart 4).
    Since the recession officially ended in
    mid-2009, the employment -to-population ratio has been moving sideways. The
    past few payroll reports helped to push it up only very marginally. This means that
    household income will remain constrained and budgets will be tight.
    Bottom line: job growth is still insufficient given expanding population. This will
    keep household budgets and tax revenues constrained.

    Bottom line: job growth is still insufficient given expanding population. This will keep household budgets and tax revenues constrained.

    Taking all the favorite measures of the labor market into consideration, there are
    clear indications of healing. However, we will be watching the post-winter data
    very closely to see if the improvement is sustainable.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

  3. #13
    Sage
    AdamT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Last Seen
    02-13-13 @ 04:09 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    17,773

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    BofA's US Economic Weekly basically nails how I feel on the issue:

    US Economic Weekly
    I posted a link to a recent study by a Barclays economist in another thread showing that there is virtually no historical support for Bofa's theory. As it turns out, discouraged workers don't start streaming into the job market in sufficient numbers to affect U-3 unemployment in a significant way. Jobless rate falling faster than many predicted - ABC News

    Of course that's not exactly good news for the economy, as it just means that labor force participation rate stays depressed.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

  4. #14
    Sage
    Taylor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    US
    Last Seen
    Today @ 08:36 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    6,170

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    Of course that's not exactly good news for the economy, as it just means that labor force participation rate stays depressed.
    Unfortunately, there's little historical support for most anything associated with this recovery . We'd better hope that labor force participation turns around... the alternative is more of these unsustainable budget deficits (or...).
    Last edited by Taylor; 03-10-12 at 09:43 AM.

  5. #15
    Sage
    AdamT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Last Seen
    02-13-13 @ 04:09 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    17,773

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Unfortunately, there's little historical support for most anything associated with this recovery . We'd better hope that labor force participation turns around... the alternative is more of these unsustainable budget deficits (or...).
    The reduced labor force participation rate is in large part the continuation of a long-term demographic trend, i.e. the aging of the baby boomers, that was probably somewhat masked by the real estate boom. So it's probably not going to continue to get worse before it gets better. It's just something we have to plan for as we address the SS and Medicare problems.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

  6. #16
    Skeptical Optimist
    Rhapsody1447's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Last Seen
    09-20-17 @ 02:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Conservative
    Posts
    1,510

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    I posted a link to a recent study by a Barclays economist in another thread showing that there is virtually no historical support for Bofa's theory. As it turns out, discouraged workers don't start streaming into the job market in sufficient numbers to affect U-3 unemployment in a significant way. Jobless rate falling faster than many predicted - ABC News

    Of course that's not exactly good news for the economy, as it just means that labor force participation rate stays depressed.
    I'm sorry you're going to have to rephrase that.

    The reduced labor force participation rate is in large part the continuation of a long-term demographic trend, i.e. the aging of the baby boomers, that was probably somewhat masked by the real estate boom. So it's probably not going to continue to get worse before it gets better. It's just something we have to plan for as we address the SS and Medicare problems.
    No one is ignoring the demographic trend. It's the accelerated decline in the LFPR due to the weak economy that analysts refer to when talking about U3.

    From BofA:

    Since the recession began in December 2007, the labor force participation ratehas declined over 2.0pp to 63.9%, of which 1.2pp was due to population shiftsinto age groups that tend to work less (Table 1)
    US Economic Weekly

    From CBO:

    The rate of participation in the labor force fell from 66 percent in 2007 to an average of 64 percent in the second half of 2011, an unusually large decline over so short a time. About a third of that decline reflects factors other than the downturn, such as the aging of the baby-boom generation. But even with those factors removed, the estimated decline in that rate during the past four years is larger than has been typical of past downturns, even after accounting for the greater severity of this downturn. Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent.
    http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/c...12_Outlook.pdf

    From BLS:

    At the same time, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population that is either employed or looking for work—for this group rose during much of the recession, before leveling off in recent months. (See chart 2.)
    http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils81.pdf

    LFPR by age CBO.JPG

    The increase in the LFPR which caused U3 to remain unchanged in February is the case in point.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

  7. #17
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Republic of Florida
    Last Seen
    Today @ 09:13 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    14,012

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    More jobs is great news. Its just not good enough to keep up with population growth. And if its at all related to the economics policies of the last 5 years it came at a great cost. The US will be paying off debt (and thus taxing citizens) for generations. The even larger size of govt will become the new baseline and will probably never go back to the relatively smaller govt of just a few years ago.

  8. #18
    Educator a777pilot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Flower Mound, in the basement
    Last Seen
    12-07-17 @ 08:49 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    815

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    The silence from the "we are all doomed crowd" is deafening.
    Not so.

    With the continued effort of this Fool, Bobo, the Post Turtle, I find it amazing that the American economy is doing as well as it is.

    The figure of 227,000 is good but it is a figure that still says we are losing ground. This economy needs to produce on average approximately 250,000 per month just to keep up with population growth. The reason the unemployment rate is static and not rising is that so many American would be workers have just given up and dropped out of the job hunt.

    Recovery starts with the firing of 0bama.
    I came into this world fighting, screaming and covered in someone else's blood. I have no problem going out the same way.

  9. #19
    ThunderCougarFalconBird
    roughdraft274's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Louisiana
    Last Seen
    Today @ 10:03 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    11,042

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by a777pilot View Post
    Not so.

    With the continued effort of this Fool, Bobo, the Post Turtle, I find it amazing that the American economy is doing as well as it is.

    The figure of 227,000 is good but it is a figure that still says we are losing ground. This economy needs to produce on average approximately 250,000 per month just to keep up with population growth.
    I've heard estimates of 125,000 jobs a month to keep up with population. I've also heard 250,000, but I can't find either from a very reliable source.
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    uh that is so small as to be stupid. Do you want registration? given less than 3% of criminals get their guns from private sales, its pretty much a waste of resources
    **Thirty Minutes Later**
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    you are confused. I never denied that many criminals get guns in private sales.

  10. #20
    Sage
    pbrauer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Oregon
    Last Seen
    11-27-15 @ 03:31 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    25,394

    Re: Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 8.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    Any party that is seeking election will downplay good economic news under the incumbent. The left did the same thing under Bush. The fact this recovery has been so weak just gives Republicans a campaign platform to run on.
    Yeah, you are correct on that.

Page 2 of 7 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •