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Thread: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    No one predicted we would have ground troops in Iraq for almost a decade.
    Don't kid yourself, they knew going in it would be no short-term picnic. That's why we didn't take down Baghdad and Saddam in 1991, because there was no exit strategy. Bush Sr said as much. (I think it was in his book, too, but not sure.) We knew it would take years to get out and declined in '91. Do you honestly think we would have settled on the No Fly Zone option if it would have only taken another 2-3 weeks to end the whole thing permanently?

    The Shrub was an idiot who didn't want to listen to his generals, or it was his intention all along, I don't know which and it doesn't matter, really. Regardless of the public rhetoric DoD knew what was coming. Those guys aren't stupid even if they're sometimes portrayed that way for political reasons.


    (Sorry, EagleEye, I have to disagree with you on this one. I think DoD pretty much knew what was coming by invading Iraq and explained it to Shrub, who ignored them. They may not have counted on the high number of "terrorists" that joined in, which probably did delay things a year or two beyond expectations, but they knew it wasn't going to be a 24-month operation.)
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    who or what is The Shrub ?

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Like with Iraq, Iran does not present a military threat to the US. I don't believe in going to war with a country that is not a threat to us. That has worked poorly when we did it in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
    Iran will present a deadly threat to a very close ally if they are allowed to develop nukes. Unlike the US, Israel isn't big enough to survive even a very limited nuclear war.


    As for the others:
    Korea was fought under the UN flag. If you have a problem with the Korean War I request you blast out at UN policy, not US policy.

    Afghanistan was given plenty of opportunity to cooperate with the US to hunt down the terrorists responsible for the 9/11 attacks and they declined repeatedly. The UN was aware of and, at least tacitly, 'allowed' the Afghan War to proceed. See Resolutions 1368 (12 Sep 01), 1478 (14 Nov 01), 1383 (6 Dec 01), and the Bonn Agreements (Dec 01) as well as others. Notice that after Dec 01 we were no longer at war with Afghanistan. The provisional government and the UN allowed the US-led coalition to remain in country to counter anti-government forces, specifically the Taliban and Al Qaeda. If you want to complain about this war I request you condemn the UN and, in this case, the internationally recognized government of Afghanistan.

    I won't discuss Vietnam. I wasn't quite old enough for required participation but I was certainly a part of America at the time and no side of that war was pretty. To me it was the last war (except for the on-going Israeli situation) of the post-WWII era when European countries broke up their former empires, which had various repercussions all over the globe.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mya View Post
    who or what is The Shrub ?
    I can see where you might not know that one. It's a derogatory term used by many for Bush Jr (aka 'W') as opposed to Bush, Sr.

    Since we've been talking about both Iraqi wars - and both had a 'Bush' as Pres at the time - I needed to distinguish between them, and I prefer to use Shrub instead of W; I don't think he's entitled to his own letter of the alphabet.
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 03-01-12 at 02:43 AM.
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    Personally, I think it's an uphill battle and that if Iran wants them they will eventually have them, though it may take a decade or more. What I'm hoping is Russia or China will at some point step in and convince them otherwise.
    I think a free Iran, like a free Iraq, is gonna (as a government) say "ok, guys... enough WMD and nuke crap, we want development aid and we're gonna pour our money into education. We wanna be first world in two generations".

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    ...
    I can see where you might not know that one. It's a derogatory term used by many for Bush Jr (aka 'W') as opposed to Bush, Sr. Since we've been talking about both Iraqi wars - and both had a 'Bush' as Pres at the time - I needed to distinguish between them, and I prefer to use Shrub instead of W (like he's entitled to his own letter of the alphabet?).
    I understand now, thank you for the clarification MoSurveyor

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    Actions separated by 5 YEARS. They are part of the same operation.
    Thanks but no thanks!


    It's true they are not a people, but a government that actively encourages and even employs terrorism, can be focused upon as a source of terrorism. Most of the world actively combats terrorism, Iran by contrast, uses it as a weapon. So we aren't attempting to bomb the world, just concentrations of those for whom civilian deaths are a primary goal (e.g.,"terrorists"). So while Iran is not a military threat, they remain a threat to the civilian populace of the US (and other countries). This makes terrorists (and anyone who supports their activities) enemies of the US, and therefore a viable military target.

    That argument might work if the reality were not that we (the US) have killed more civilians in modern history than have the "terrorists" that we are supposedly protecting everyone from.

    Oil is just not that important to me. Sorry.
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    Unless Iran invades a neighbor and holds that position for several months, as happened with Iraq/Kuwait, I wouldn't expect to see a UN Resolution "allowing" any kind of military action. That won't happen even if they're in violation of the NPT for decades (they already have 8 years of violations). If I gave any impression to the contrary I'm sorry 'cause it's not going to happen, ever, and I never expected it to happen. If you expected proof of that kind then I missed it somewhere and I'll agree flat out that it won't happen. Even if Iran built 100 functioning nukes the UN won't "sanction" an invasion or any other kind of military action.
    I agree, nor should they, unless they also plan to hold the superpowers to the nuclear disarmament requirements under the NPT.

    The point, however, is that Israel (especially) and other Western countries will not allow things to get that far before carrying out surgical strikes to cripple the ability of Iran to make a nuke. Personally, I think it's an uphill battle and that if Iran wants them they will eventually have them, though it may take a decade or more. What I'm hoping is Russia or China will at some point step in and convince them otherwise.
    I think if President Obama makes it clear to Israel they will be on their own of the strike Iran, the people in Israel opposed to war with Iran will not allow it.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    Don't kid yourself, they knew going in it would be no short-term picnic. That's why we didn't take down Baghdad and Saddam in 1991, because there was no exit strategy. Bush Sr said as much. (I think it was in his book, too, but not sure.) We knew it would take years to get out and declined in '91. Do you honestly think we would have settled on the No Fly Zone option if it would have only taken another 2-3 weeks to end the whole thing permanently?

    The Shrub was an idiot who didn't want to listen to his generals, or it was his intention all along, I don't know which and it doesn't matter, really. Regardless of the public rhetoric DoD knew what was coming. Those guys aren't stupid even if they're sometimes portrayed that way for political reasons.
    I don't buy that we invaded because Bush was an idiot, although I will agree with you that Bush was an idiot. I believe we invaded because we wanted military hegemony of the middle east oil supplies. Cheney's Energy Task force spelled out the need for a military option in Iraq 2 years before we invaded.

    I think the only reason we would attack Iran is for the same reason.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    Iran will present a deadly threat to a very close ally if they are allowed to develop nukes. Unlike the US, Israel isn't big enough to survive even a very limited nuclear war.
    Iran won't nuke Israel for the same reason they haven't attacked Israel in the past, because they are not suicidal. They know they would be turned into a smudge spot if they did.


    As for the others:
    Korea was fought under the UN flag. If you have a problem with the Korean War I request you blast out at UN policy, not US policy.

    Afghanistan was given plenty of opportunity to cooperate with the US to hunt down the terrorists responsible for the 9/11 attacks and they declined repeatedly. The UN was aware of and, at least tacitly, 'allowed' the Afghan War to proceed. See Resolutions 1368 (12 Sep 01), 1478 (14 Nov 01), 1383 (6 Dec 01), and the Bonn Agreements (Dec 01) as well as others. Notice that after Dec 01 we were no longer at war with Afghanistan. The provisional government and the UN allowed the US-led coalition to remain in country to counter anti-government forces, specifically the Taliban and Al Qaeda. If you want to complain about this war I request you condemn the UN and, in this case, the internationally recognized government of Afghanistan.

    I won't discuss Vietnam. I wasn't quite old enough for required participation but I was certainly a part of America at the time and no side of that war was pretty. To me it was the last war (except for the on-going Israeli situation) of the post-WWII era when European countries broke up their former empires, which had various repercussions all over the globe.


    Technical violations do not a military threat make, and I refuse to sanction US military hegemony as justification for killing civilians. We already have way too much blood of innocents on our hands.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Iran won't nuke Israel for the same reason they haven't attacked Israel in the past, because they are not suicidal. They know they would be turned into a smudge spot if they did.
    I said I wasn't going to discuss Vietnam but I guess I must regress to point out what should be an obvious fact. Vietnam was not North v South it was Russia v US. It was a proxy war. I mention it because this is how Iran conducts war. It supports organizations that do attack Israel and they have (almost) complete deniability using this strategy. I don't know if they would be stupid enough to pass on a nuke to their puppets but no one, least of all Israel, is going to take that chance.

    No amount of pressure by the US is going to stop Israel, either, and it's wishful thinking to believe there will be some popular uprising in Israel to stop it. Israel doesn't want to invade Iran and won't. But they will surgically strike to remove an immanent threat of Iran building a nuke.

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Technical violations do not a military threat make, and I refuse to sanction US military hegemony as justification for killing civilians. We already have way too much blood of innocents on our hands.
    It's not "US military hegemony" if it's under a UN flag or at the request of another nation inside their own borders. I'm sorry UN policy doesn't agree with you on this. Again, I suggest you take your complaints about Korea to the UN or current war to the government of Afghanistan.

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    I don't buy that we invaded because Bush was an idiot ...
    I didn't comment on why we invaded just that the DoD was NOT taken by surprise by the length of Shrub's Iraqi War.

    I don't see Obama getting us into a ground war in Iran - sorry. At most it'll be surgical strikes against potential nuclear bomb-making facilities or auxiliaries. Assuming we get involved at all I'd guess cruise missiles and/or some B-2 strikes depending on what they decide are the most efficient targets to hit.



    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    I agree, nor should they, unless they also plan to hold the superpowers to the nuclear disarmament requirements under the NPT.
    We've been providing you with evidence as requested, now it's your turn. Where are the UN resolutions saying we are in violation of the NPT?
    Mt. Rushmore: Three surveyors and some other guy.
    Life goes on within you and without you. -Harrison
    Hear the echoes of the centuries, Power isn't all that money buys. -Peart
    After you learn quantum mechanics you're never really the same again. -Weinberg

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