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Thread: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

  1. #521
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    The economic sanctions, our military presense in the region, etc are what are keeping Israel from attacking Iran. To prevent that attack we need to insure them that we are doing something to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. How to we get the world to hop on board and support the sanctions. We and Israel give Iran a threat of attack, which now gives everyone else a reason to care. Sanctions and the threat of attack is the strongest combination to prevent an actual attack on Iran. It also may prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, something both Israel and the US care about, and also something that is in the interests of middle east in general. Abandoning Israel would be an extremely detrimental move for US foriegn policy as we would also lose much of our credibility with our other close allies.
    Agreed. I think the sanctions may still work. It's important not to jump too soon, nor too late. I think Iran isn't necessarily building nukes; they're only weighing their options at this time. They may be thinking they can outlast the will of the US and Europe. They can't, but Iran may have to learn this from experience. They may also be wondering if the prestige of having their own nukes is worth the ****storm they're going through. This storm is going to get worse. New sanctions are being devised now. So Iran's troubles are going to pile up very fast. It's been stated by many folks here that Iran is not suicidal, but the course they're on certainly is suicidal. Perhaps they'll wake up soon and stop this nonsense. If all goes well, Iran may figure out a way to back off and forgo dreams of atomic weapons.
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    Iran has been found in violation of an International treaty. We have a legal right to determine what they are and are not allowed to possess because Iran is a part of NPT. NPT does globally promote nuclear disarment. The two states, Russia and US are considered nuclear weapons states under the NPT, Iran is not. The international community does not believe the US has been violating this treaty (outside of the Non-Aligned Movement) and if they do think that we are, they can go ahead and voice their concerns. It is ludacris to think we can just "get out of the middle east." I have already explained. If we leave the middle east and abandon Israel, the chances of a war is far more likely. Letting Iran have nuclear weapons will cause other countries in the region (ie, turkey, saudi, etc) to pursue nukes of their own. It is extremely niave to think that leaving Iran alone will cause them to stop building nukes and will promote peace. Almost every indicator I see is to the contrary.
    wow. a reasonable poster basing his reasonable opinions on actual knowledge of the context and history of the situation. and it only took 52 pages.

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by the_recruit View Post
    wow. a reasonable poster basing his reasonable opinions on actual knowledge of the context and history of the situation. and it only took 52 pages.
    I disagree, there have been many good posts based both on opinion and on supported fact. Each poster, no matter what their position, has given a great deal of thought to their posts and have been sincere in their efforts.

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    Well, I seriously doubt we would do that to one of our longest and staunchest allies. But it's clear to me that Obama has put significant pressure on Israel to cool off.

    Obama has already been reluctant to engage in another conventional war as conducted by Bush and believes friendship and conciliation is the answer.

    He also realizes the immense cost any type of war with Iran would inflict on the Western world----- however-----whether or not Israel is forced to strike against Iran is outside Obama's control because Israel rightly considers that Iran's position of nuclear devises would be an existential threat!

    So pressure or not pressure from Obama .... it doesn't count much here.

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    Well, I seriously doubt we would do that to one of our longest and staunchest allies. But it's clear to me that Obama has put significant pressure on Israel to cool off.


    in other words EagleAye , with America or without America..... Israel will do what it has to do.

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    Iran has been found in violation of an International treaty.
    Do you have link when the UN made the decision that Iran was in violation of the treaty?
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    That map's a little outdated. I don't think we have any bases left in Iraq. That only leaves bases in Afghanistan (where we're engaged in a war) and bases in Turkey being adjacent to Iran. Nothing south and/or west of Iraq can get to Iran directly, Iraq cuts off access even from Kuwait.

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Do you have link when the UN made the decision that Iran was in violation of the treaty?
    Would you agree that sanctions from the Security Council qualify? I can't imagine Russia or China, both of which are friends of Iran, allowing sanctions if there were no violations.

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Mya View Post
    Obama has already been reluctant to engage in another conventional war as conducted by Bush and believes friendship and conciliation is the answer.

    He also realizes the immense cost any type of war with Iran would inflict on the Western world----- however-----whether or not Israel is forced to strike against Iran is outside Obama's control because Israel rightly considers that Iran's position of nuclear devises would be an existential threat!

    So pressure or not pressure from Obama .... it doesn't count much here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mya View Post
    in other words EagleAye , with America or without America..... Israel will do what it has to do.
    There is precedent regarding Israeli action whether prematurely or counter to the wishes of the US. "when Israel carried out Operation Opera, an Israeli airstrike on the Osirak nuclear reactor in Baghdad. Reagan suspended a shipment of military aircraft to Israel, and harshly criticized the action. Relations also soured during the 1982 Lebanon War, when the United States even contemplated sanctions to stop the Israeli Siege of Beirut. The U.S. reminded Israel that weaponry provided by the U.S. was to be used for defensive purposes only, and suspended shipments of cluster munitions to Israel." Ultimately, relation resumed but that is one issue that Israel has to consider.

    Moreover, Israel has to consider the possibility of a prolonged regional war. The US will not abandon Israel but there will be a strain both militarily and diplomatically should Israel act without the blessings of the US. However, should Israel do so the US would not abandon their ally and this war to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons would been started by proxy as far as the US is concerned thereby allowing the US to save face and condemnation in the international community.

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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Connery View Post
    Moreover, Israel has to consider the possibility of a prolonged regional war. The US will not abandon Israel but there will be a strain both militarily and diplomatically should Israel act without the blessings of the US. However, should Israel do so the US would not abandon their ally and this war to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons would been started by proxy as far as the US is concerned thereby allowing the US to save face and condemnation in the international community.
    That's certainly a possibility and it would surprise me if it hasn't already been discussed in hushed tones in some back room. It won't be the first choice or the second but I'd bet it's in the playbook somewhere.
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 02-28-12 at 06:52 AM.
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    Re: PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Do you have link when the UN made the decision that Iran was in violation of the treaty?
    If hes talking NPT... I'd like to see it too.

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