disneydude
DP Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2006
- Messages
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- Liberal
You realize the prop 8 judge is not a direct and useful mirror of what you're going to see on the Supreme Court? Yes? You also note that the Prop 8 judge decided, seemingly somewhat on his own, to take it in a direction the arguments didn't actually go in...in regards to gender...while even suggesting that there may be a legitimate case in regards to a rational basis argument against it for homosexual marriage based simply on the "appearance" of facts being one way even if they're not REALLY going that direction (I admit, I may be mixing it up with another gay marriage case but I don't think I am).
Prop 8's ruling doesn't in any way make me think its a slam dunk case as it reaches the SCOTUS level, it reenforces my thought that this thing could quite easily go either way. Could it be difficult going? Absolutely. But I think at worst its a 70/30 type of deal either direction. While I'm sure there are some conservative scholars that have stated it's a losing battle, there's also many who think the opposite and its not uncommon in any form of acadamia or constitutional law circle (or even political circles) to find individuals who enjoy being contrarian. Pointing to handful of scholars saying one thing while ignoring all others...again...to me is cherry picking in hopes of defending your attitude of bravado in regards to how unquestionably open and shut this seems to you.
I'm not talking about the judicial decision for the holding but rather, I'm talking about the arguments which were raised by the proponents of prop 8. They were grasping for "legitimate state interests" and could not articulate the rational relation. Those arguments aren't going to change much if this makes it to the Supreme Court.
Even as conservative as the US Supreme Court has become, I would not be surprized in a lopsided decision based on how weak the proponents case was argued, unless they get substantially better.