Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

Karl said:

Which is why Wall Street is salivating to get their hands on it, and Republicans are toadying to privatize it.

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Yes, that was the whole thrust of Bush's 2005 privatize-SS campaign. Just another hunk of free money to throw up Wall Street's way. No different from tort reform, bankruptcy reform, or all the attempts to chop up the GSE's and privatize that mission also. Fortunately, the SS proposals at least were effectively countered with some truth and they withered on the vine. Had they been in effect by 2008, we could have expected SS losses of well over a trillion dollars. Wouldn't that have been a help!

j-mac said:

No, I asked if a nations wealth, and status in the world is a static thing?

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Certainly not, or we'd still be a lightly considered and underdeveloped backwater. But we don't have some sort of NFL-style parity system going on here either. Unless you can get past all the energy, creativity, and vitality that underlies that 23% of world product, you won't be turning us into Zimbabwe any time soon enough for anyone at all to be concerned over it.

haymarket said:

As to your second point - it was you who seemed to take issue with Social Security and changes in it over the years. I would just as soon accept the changes as reality. Of course, SS has changed. Any successful program grows and changes as the society around it changes. That is a good thing.

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The original notion was that payroll taxes would just be the way to get the ball rolling and that funding could shift to being from general revenues after 20 years or so. But down the road, Congress wisely thought it would be better to keep the program from being so closely and regularly tainted by the whims of the political process, so they left tha payroll tax system in place.

haymarket said:

Thanks. We had a terrific time. Last year we took my grandson - who was then nine - as we gave him the choice of Disney World or Washington DC. The little chip off the old block picked DC. He wanted to see the President. We did get to see his helicopter take off from the White House lawn (all 3 of them). it was a wonderful experience. His biggest kick was standing where Martin Luther King delivered his speech at the Washington Monument. He insisted his picture be taken there.

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That was probably the Lincoln Memorial then. But yes, DC is a wonderful town to try to take in. There are so many things that you've read and heard about, and suddenly there they all are, right in front of you. I've been here since 1969, and I know I still get goose bumps when I'm walking over to OMB and gaze up and see all the snipers on the rooftops. Ack!

haymarket said:

What other DC restaurants would you recommend? We want to go back in the fall.

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Geez, DC isn't NYC, but there are still tons and tons of places, and it really depends on what you like and where you are. We and a couple of friends have a common background of residency in Euro-cities with Germanic-sounding names that start with W, so we often dine at Cafe Berlin near 4th & Mass NE. It's actually run by Austrians, but they do a very nice job. The potato pancakes are nearly perfect. Joe Torre was in town this past week to do a seminar-style talk at Lisner Auditorium, so after that we went up to a new place called District Commons on Washington Circle (23rd & Penn NW). Sort of an upscale techno-bistro kind of place, but way too loud until people started leaving. After that, you could have a conversation, but the food was rated excellent by all four of us. So, it just depends on where you are and what you're looking for. Probably the two iconic spots would be the Old Ebbitt Grill (across 15th from Treasury) and Ben's Chili Bowl (12th & U NW). I like them both fine for what they are, but mostly their rep is simply from having been around for a long time.

j-mac said:

However, there is a process to change that document, and it isn't through the courts. If you want to change it, amend it.

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Well, that's one way. But unless you wanted to have 10,000 amendments by now, simple judicial review is probably preferable.

Chiefgator said:

I stand corrected. It is always a good day when you learn something, even if you make an ass of yourself along the way.

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Well said. Not making an ass of yourself at all.

Samhain said:

That isn't what the original article is indicating.

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If you want to go with Stephen Dinan, help yourself.

I think I will go with the experts who actually administer the SS funds.

Catawba said:

If you want to go with Stephen Dinan, help yourself.

I think I will go with the experts who actually administer the SS funds.

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Ehm

Social Security’s disability fund, which has been operating short of cash since 2005, is forecast to run out of reserves by 2018.

Read more: Jobless disability claims soar to record $200B as of January, research from JPMorgan Chase shows - NYPOST.com

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Come on,cheery pick some more BS for us buddy. 6 years, and it's all gone. Every. Last. Dollar.

MrVicchio said:

Ehm




Come on,cheery pick some more BS for us buddy. 6 years, and it's all gone. Every. Last. Dollar.

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:roll: Read closer.

Trustees Report Summary

The Media always pushing the Panic Button. Well, I guess it sells - like Freddy Kruger, and about as much substance, too.

MrVicchio said:

Come on,cheery pick some more BS for us buddy. 6 years, and it's all gone. Every. Last. Dollar.

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LOL. You've been had, you know. Played like a fiddle.

Cardinal Fang said:

LOL. You've been had, you know. Played like a fiddle.

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Expect the silent mode from the doomsayers. While they are ignorant in regards to public finance, some are at least wise enough not to fight battles they cannot win.

MoSurveyor said:

:roll: Read closer.

Trustees Report Summary

The Media always pushing the Panic Button. Well, I guess it sells - like Freddy Kruger, and about as much substance, too.

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Cardinal Fang said:

LOL. You've been had, you know. Played like a fiddle.

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Kushinator said:

Expect the silent mode from the doomsayers. While they are ignorant in regards to public finance, some are at least wise enough not to fight battles they cannot win.

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No, the ones player were you guys. See, I LOOKED up where that 2018 number came from.

It came from your source. Not the media. The SS Trustee Report.

While the combined OASDI program continues to fail the long-range test of close actuarial balance, it does satisfy the conditions for short-range financial adequacy. Combined trust fund assets are projected to exceed one year’s projected benefit payments for more than ten years, through to 2035. However, the Disability Insurance (DI) program satisfies neither the long-range nor short-range tests for financial adequacy. DI costs have exceeded non-interest income since 2005 and trust fund exhaustion is projected for 2018; thus changes to improve the financial status of the DI program are needed soon.

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Trustees Report Summary

How to find this quote. Hit ALT-F Then type 2018 and it's the VERY FIRST instance of that year.

Game, Set, MATCH.

The Disability Insurance Trust Fund—Each year, the Board prepares a report,
commonly referred to as the Trustees Report, on the financial outlook for the Social
Security trust funds. Estimates in the 2011 Trustees Report show that, although the OldAge and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund and the theoretical combined OASI and
Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds are adequately financed during the 10-year shortrange projection period under intermediate assumptions, the DI fund alone is not.

1
This ratio is also called a trust fund ratio in the 2011 OASDI Trustees Report.2
Under the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report (those representing the
Trustees’ best estimate of future economic and demographic trends), the assets of the DI
Trust Fund are projected to fall below 20 percent of annual cost during 2016 and are
estimated to become exhausted in 2018. The figure below shows the estimated balance
ratios for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and for each fund separately up to the
date of trust fund exhaustion

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http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2011/709letter_DI_House_2011.pdf

MrVicchio said:

No, the ones player were you guys. See, I LOOKED up where that 2018 number came from.

It came from your source. Not the media. The SS Trustee Report.


Trustees Report Summary

How to find this quote. Hit ALT-F Then type 2018 and it's the VERY FIRST instance of that year.

Game, Set, MATCH.


http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2011/709letter_DI_House_2011.pdf

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You know i was just going to give you a pass, because you do not know any better. But when you think about it, if we allow such nonsense to go unchecked, who knows what you will be capable of producing in the future.

What exactly is the Disability Insurance Trust Fund? What exactly is the Old Age Survivor Insurance Trust Fund? Do you understand the difference between the two?

Now you do. You may now admit your error(s). There is no shame.

Kushinator said:

You know i was just going to give you a pass, because you do not know any better. But when you think about it, if we allow such nonsense to go unchecked, who knows what you will be capable of producing in the future.

What exactly is the Disability Insurance Trust Fund? What exactly is the Old Age Survivor Insurance Trust Fund? Do you understand the difference between the two?

Now you do. You may now admit your error(s). There is no shame.

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Wow, no ****? They are different funds? WOAH.

Now if you go back to the first post I made mentioning 2018, it's clear that the quote is discussing the DI. Then your friend says I'm full of ****, falling for media spin, and you and some other thank him, and mock me..

Only, I use the SS Trustee report (the one you guys are harping on) after to show.. yes, the DI is going to be out of money in 2018.

So, this is a case of you, and CF and MS being incapable of keeping up with the conversation. YOUR source shows that MY source showing the DI fund is going to be dry by 2018 was accurate... and all three of you...

can't grasp you just pwned yourselves.

MrVicchio said:

Wow, no ****? They are different funds? WOAH.

Now if you go back to the first post I made mentioning 2018, it's clear that the quote is discussing the DI. Then your friend says I'm full of ****, falling for media spin, and you and some other thank him, and mock me..

Only, I use the SS Trustee report (the one you guys are harping on) after to show.. yes, the DI is going to be out of money in 2018.

So, this is a case of you, and CF and MS being incapable of keeping up with the conversation. YOUR source shows that MY source showing the DI fund is going to be dry by 2018 was accurate... and all three of you...

can't grasp you just pwned yourselves.

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So you pulled a bait and switch and now you're crowing about it? Well, congratulations.

In the future if you want real conversation instead of a pulpit, you might want to make your change of subject a little more obvious.

I'm sure we were all aware it was the DI - in fact we pointed that out - but with some of your previous posts as examples we weren't sure YOU knew it was the DI being discussed. Certainly the post you quoted in #183 (that we assumed you were responding to) wasn't talking about the DI and your OP wasn't talking about the DI, either.

MoSurveyor said:

So you pulled a bait and switch and now you're crowing about it? Well, congratulations.

In the future if you want real conversation instead of a pulpit, you might want to make your change of subject a little more obvious.

I'm sure we were all aware it was the DI - in fact we pointed that out - but with some of your previous posts as examples we weren't sure YOU knew it was the DI being discussed. Certainly the post you quoted in #183 (that we assumed you were responding to) wasn't talking about the DI.

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No bait and switch. It was something to add to the over all conversation. I considered creating a new thread on it, but decided against it. You don't really understand the SS mess, you have your head in the sand.

MrVicchio said:

Wow, no ****? They are different funds? WOAH.

Now if you go back to the first post I made mentioning 2018, it's clear that the quote is discussing the DI. Then your friend says I'm full of ****, falling for media spin, and you and some other thank him, and mock me..

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You did not create this thread with the underlying argument that SS's DI fund will go into the red by 2018. Secondly, your position can be traced back to this:

MrVicchio said:

Thank you for that Catawaba, and now how does this show that SS isn't about to go dry by 2022 would be interesting.

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Only, I use the SS Trustee report (the one you guys are harping on) after to show.. yes, the DI is going to be out of money in 2018.

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This was never in contention. You have failed to support the original argument that SS will be out of money by 2022, and instead moved the goal posts in an attempt to use the DI's status as a relevant premise. Which shows how desperate you are to avoid admitting the obvious; you have no business discussing the subject.

So, this is a case of you, and CF and MS being incapable of keeping up with the conversation. YOUR source shows that MY source showing the DI fund is going to be dry by 2018 was accurate... and all three of you...

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Nobody stated it was inaccurate. Why? Because the DI status was never in question.

True or false: the SS trust fund runs dry by 2022.

can't grasp you just pwned yourselves.

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Nope! You will not admit your ignorance in regards to the topic at hand.

MrVicchio said:

No bait and switch. It was something to add to the over all conversation. I considered creating a new thread on it, but decided against it. You don't really understand the SS mess, you have your head in the sand.

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Fess up to your errors. Nobody is denying the DI status. What is in question (and is the central theme of the thread) is the claim you made about the general fund going in the red by 2022. You cannot support your argument with any evidence. Shifting the goal posts does not suffice.

MrVicchio said:

You don't really understand the SS mess, you have your head in the sand.

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I understand the Republicans have wanted to privatize the SSA for years and have spread half-truths and lies about it ever since, all so the Wall Street Gamblers can get their fingers in a $600 billion/year pie. I understand very well what's going on - how about you?

The trust will start to decrease in raw value in 2022, according to the latest report. It's bond redemption rate will exceed its bond purchase rate by 2.6 billion in 2022.

This started in 2010, when the difference between bond redemption and bond purchases started to shrink.

Earlier in the thread, someone suggested to increase the cap on the SS tax to correct the problem. In the past, each cap increase has been met with a benefit increase( tax more, get more ). Increasing the cap and increasing the benefit moves the "red" date out in exchange for making the issue bigger. In either case, increasing the cap on SS tax will directly decrease revenue into the general fund, due to the reduction in taxable income.

Additionally, if we were to increase the SS tax without increasing the maximum benefit, the ROI from SS will scale down based on your income. The current ROI hasn't outpaced inflation, hence the constant adjustment of the cap/benefit level, so I'm not sure how any further degradation would boost confidence.

Samhain said:

[...] increasing the cap on SS tax will directly decrease revenue into the general fund, due to the reduction in taxable income.

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Only to the extent that businesses pay more SS tax, which would surely be, in comparison to the SS revenues produced, miniscule. There would certainly be no "direct" (1:1) correlation.... more like 1:1000, I'd think.

Samhain said:

Additionally, if we were to increase the SS tax without increasing the maximum benefit, the ROI from SS will scale down based on your income. The current ROI hasn't outpaced inflation, hence the constant adjustment of the cap/benefit level, so I'm not sure how any further degradation would boost confidence.

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ROI is not a factor in the general public's confidence in the SS system. In fact, a small percentage of the public has been brainwashed, by those on the rabid right, that they'll get no SS money at all.

Samhain said:

The trust will start to decrease in raw value in 2022, according to the latest report. It's bond redemption rate will exceed its bond purchase rate by 2.6 billion in 2022.

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Which contradicts the statement that, "Social Security’s bank account will go bust in 2022".

Kushinator said:

Which contradicts the statement that, "Social Security’s bank account will go bust in 2022".

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Exactly!

I think Cardinal Fang described it best when he was talking about (private) insurance accounts and how they work. That post is around here somewhere - in this thread I think.

MoSurveyor said:

Exactly!

I think Cardinal Fang described it best when he was talking about (private) insurance accounts and how they work. That post is around here somewhere - in this thread I think.

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This one says it best: http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaking-news-mainstream-media/119249-social-security-reserves-forecast-run-dry-2022-a-14.html#post1060217767

Cardinal Fang said:

CBO has not predicted, and has not even projected, that the economy will shut down in 2027.

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yeah. it's the "current policy" v "current law".

about the 2:30 mark:

Notes held by the SSTF in fact ARE Treasury bonds in laddered maturities that extend from now into 2026.

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not really - Treasury Bonds are publicly trade-able. The Special Promissory Notes given to the SSTF are not. they are, instead, an accounting gimmick; which attempt to put a better face on the fact that an increasing percentage of SSI payouts will come from the General Fund rather than FICA tax revenues. however, the General Fund is already running a Trillion-Plus deficit on an annual basis, and is unlikely to be able to pick up the slack.

This is a stupefyingly ignorant paragraph that is based on utter nonsense and hogwash plus some baseless end-times rant that doesn't even qualify as speculation.

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you must not spend much time looking at the explosion in our entitlements and interest payments.

as of 2010, federal revenues were only able to cover for Defense, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid/CHIP. We had to borrow to make half of our interest payments.

and with the exception of Defense, all of those costs are set to explode, meaning that our annual deficit is going to get far worse, meaning that the interest payment problem is going to get worse, and we are caught in an ugly downward spiral. If we return to normal interest rates, by 2020 we will be dependent upon the rest of the world turning over 20% of it's GDP into feeding our debt. They are unlikely to be terribly interested in doing so for a nation being forced to borrow to cover operating costs on the level that we are already doing, much less than we will be doing.

that is why the President's own Bi-Partisan Debt Reduction Commission all said that drastic change is needed now in order to stave off fiscal collapse. there is good reason why we were downgraded, and it wasn't because of squabbling in Washington, it was because squabbling in Washington kept us from addressing the fiscal anvil falling on our heads. It's why the IMF says we need to cut transfers by 35% and raise taxes by 35% in order to survive. Except that raising more taxes is no where near as simple as raising rates, effectively closing that venue off to us to the extent needed.