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Thread: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

  1. #61
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Thank you for that Catawaba, and now how does this show that SS isn't about to go dry by 2022 would be interesting.
    You are welcome MrVicohio! From above:

    "In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 25 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    You are welcome MrVicohio! From above:

    "In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 25 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."
    That isn't what the original article is indicating. Its stating that in 2022, for the first time, they will actually have to redeem more trust fund bonds than they purchase, which translates into a reduction of the total trust fund balance( 2.7 trillion and change ).

    As the trust fund starts to decrease in value, the most obvious correlation in publicly known data sets will be the decrease in intra-government holdings and an increase, of the same amount, in public debt.

    Granted, with JP's magical mystery tour(MMT) system, the government can print money on demand to satisfy its obligations. While the idea of MMT works on paper in a closed society, it doesn't play well with the reality of a global exchange.

  3. #63
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    That isn't what the original article is indicating. Its stating that in 2022, for the first time, they will actually have to redeem more trust fund bonds than they purchase, which translates into a reduction of the total trust fund balance( 2.7 trillion and change ).

    As the trust fund starts to decrease in value, the most obvious correlation in publicly known data sets will be the decrease in intra-government holdings and an increase, of the same amount, in public debt.

    Granted, with JP's magical mystery tour(MMT) system, the government can print money on demand to satisfy its obligations. While the idea of MMT works on paper in a closed society, it doesn't play well with the reality of a global exchange.

    That is a good point, and what I wonder is how much of these so called bonds that were the iou's placed in SS are absolute junk due to the US monetizing its own debt.


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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    That is a good point, and what I wonder is how much of these so called bonds that were the iou's placed in SS are absolute junk due to the US monetizing its own debt.


    j-mac
    Far from being junk, they are in fact the safest investments in the world.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    Far from being junk, they are in fact the safest investments in the world.

    How'd that work out for Weimar?


    j-mac
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    How'd that work out for Weimar?


    j-mac
    I did not realize we were living under the Weimar Republic.
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    doubtful. as the SCOTUS has already noted, you don't rate a single dime of Social Security, and it can be taken from you at any time.



    a good set of intentions, right there. unfortunately, reality seems to indicate that we will not be able to succeed at them as much as we'd hoped. so I guess I'll answer your question with a question:

    Either one believes we should put our "entitlement" programs on a path towards long-term stability and dramatically reduce outlays in order to avoid a fiscal collapse, or one believes in fully funding these programs until they destroy the economy. In the 2020's. At which point we become Greece, only much worse because no one can bail us out, and so we are throwing our elderly off the programs all of a sudden and rapidly, to include those who probably lack the means to support themselves without. Which are you?
    Right wingers here badly need to go out and buy an atlas of the world. Turn to the page with the map of the USA... tear it out.... nail it to the wall above your computer..... write on it UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Then do the same for the nation of Greece and put that side by side on the wall. And then do the most important thing : learn the difference.

    I favor a simple solution: right now today, 93% of Americans pay FICA tax on 100% of their earnings. Those who make above $106K per year only pay the FICA tax on a portion of their earnings. In fact, somebody who makes just over a million dollars pays proportionately 1/10 on total earnings that the tax that a person does making $100K.

    Solve this situation by popping the cap while freezing current benefit levels and you go quite a long way to a safe and solvent system for many decades to come.

    That is the one I am CP.
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    J-mac

    The Constitution clearly authorizes the government to undertake programs like Social Security. I gave you the language, you read the language, you quoted the language but you stand there pretending that a blueberry is not blue even though your eyes tell you it is. So it seems rather pointless for me to tell you what the Constitution means and you to deny it and tell me what you think it means. We get nowhere that way. It just becomes your opinion versus my opinion.

    What we need is some independent body who is schooled on the Constitution and can make that judgment independent of what you and I believe.

    That would be the United States Supreme Court. This will help educate you

    http://www.ssa.gov/history/court.html

    So lets forget about your opinion as well as my opinion. We have the opinion of the actual independent body whose opinion has the weight of law behind it.

    If you want to argue, they are located in Washington DC. There is a very good restaurant a few blocks from their building and I would be happy to recommend it to you while to go and cross verbal swords with the nine justices.

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    They specialize in small plates of Spanish food. Its wonderful.

    When I asked you my questions about the government honoring its Social security obligations , you said this

    I am a man of my word, I don't know if Government is.
    I do not know you and will not pass judgment upon your own evaluation of your own character. For now, I take you at your word. Regarding the government and Social Security, I know this: not one person in the last 75 years has been denied Social Security benefits in full when they completed their obligations in the program. Not one person has come up short. The US Government has honored and paid each and every one of their obligations. They have never defaulted on their Social Security obligations.

    That is a record of excellence.
    Last edited by haymarket; 02-19-12 at 10:56 AM.
    __________________________________________________ _
    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    How'd that work out for Weimar?


    j-mac
    The Weimar republic happened under very special circumstances.

    1) their production was effected by a World War
    2) they purposely devalued their currency to avoid paying reparations
    3) against advice from their own economists Germany also borrowed all of its war spending by borrowing from foreign countries, thus making them non sovereign.

    You can't compare the two and attempt to keep a straight face.
    My blog, where I talk latest news on economics and some other issues.

    http://hereticaldruthers.wordpress.com/

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    How'd that work out for Weimar?
    Weimar explicitly printed money for the purpose of repatriating debt owed from war reparations. The U.S. central bank--on the other hand--creates high powered money by purchasing bonds from banks. The Fed does not purchase U.S. government debt directly from the Treasury; if it did..., you would have a valid point.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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