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Thread: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

  1. #221
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    If we can do that, then the money will flow here and stay here. If we can't, then some of the capital will flow here, and then alot of the capital will flow right back out. Threats to the dollar (any indications we are looking to monetize part of the debt) means that there will be a move to cease using that as an international currency, and goods (say, for example, oil) will start trading in local currencies.
    LOL! We are already effectively "monetizing the debt". Nobody cares. Meanwhile, you cannot "stop using" the currency that represents 23% of world output. And obviously, the market for 77% of world GDP is already moving quite substantially in terms of "local currencies". The US dollar can of course be converted into ANY of them, the reverse being a big maybe, especially at the level of national and global volumes.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I mean - what - roughly half to two thirds of US Dollars are currently held overseas? You know the numbers better than I do - what's the end result of - say - even half of the dollars currently used just in the international oil trade flowing home, all in the space of about 3 months as everyone jostles to not be the last one out?
    Half to two-thirds of US currency is held abroad. If these physical dollars all suddenly started to "flow home", there would be a surge in US exports and in US jobs. Not to mention a rather substantial decline in foreign official reserves. All this would of course serve to strengthen the market value of the dollar.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    at which point we get caught in an inflationary trap thanks to reasons described above as demand drops forcing the Fed to become the virtual sole purchaser of government treasuries effectively monetizing the debt. yeah. that will do us much better. The Fed is neither Omniscient nor is it Omnipotent. And it still doesn't save us.
    The moron economics of right-wingers have put the US economy is its worst shape in quite a long time, and yet the yield on 10-year Treasuries closed at 2.01% on Friday with the 30-year number at 3.16%. The notion of the Fed as the only buyer comes from some free-form place that has no actual connection to reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    If we can do that, then the money will flow here and stay here. If we can't, then some of the capital will flow here, and then alot of the capital will flow right back out. Threats to the dollar (any indications we are looking to monetize part of the debt) means that there will be a move to cease using that as an international currency, and goods (say, for example, oil) will start trading in local currencies.
    LOL! You cannot "stop using" the currency that represents 23% of world output. And obviously, the market for 77% of world GDP is already moving quite substantially in terms of "local currencies". The US dollar can of course be converted into ANY of them, the reverse being a big maybe, especially at the level of national and global volumes.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I mean - what - roughly half to two thirds of US Dollars are currently held overseas? You know the numbers better than I do - what's the end result of - say - even half of the dollars currently used just in the international oil trade flowing home, all in the space of about 3 months as everyone jostles to not be the last one out?
    Half to two-thirds of US currency is held abroad. If these physical overseas dollars all suddenly started to "flow home", there would be a surge in US exports and in US jobs. This of course would serve to strengthen the market value of the dollar.

  2. #222
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Half to two-thirds of US currency is held abroad. If these physical overseas dollars all suddenly started to "flow home", there would be a surge in US exports and in US jobs. This of course would serve to strengthen the market value of the dollar.
    I'll respond to the rest later. but this - you know this is ludicrous, right?

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Because the problem isn't that one or more of these things will sink us - it is that all of them together are guaranteed to.
    This guarantee is of course based solely on the extraordinarily inadept say-so of yourself and nothing more. You are not able to think in terms of Social Security numbers, so you believe it is a problem when it is not. You insist that lower interest rates on a debt that is and will continue to be a declining percent of GDP is a problem. Other developed countries (almost all of them, actually) provide better overall health care at significantly lower per capita costs, but you believe that Americans are simply too stupid to do the same. You are some combination of Chicken Little and The Boy Who Cried Wolf. Someone to pay any actual attention to, you are not.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    according to the White House, the federal government will continue to spend about 23% of GDP for the forseeable future.
    That's what we were spending during the Reagan administration as well, and that figure is still among the very lowest in the developed world. There isn't any ACTUAL reason at all not to be at that level or even much, much higher as most of our friends and allies are.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    ...a number we have not collected in revenues under any tax schedule, to include Top Marginal Rates of 91%.
    Top marginal rates have nothing to do with it. Reagan was trying (albeit failing) to create a revenue-neutral tax bill in 1986 when he slashed the top marginal rates. But he got rid of so many deductions, credits, and loopholes at the same time that the bill ended up as a two-year tax increase. The precise means for it might be an interesting technical discussion, but a suggestion that no tax structure exists that could provide revenues equal to 23% of GDP is simply air-headed foolishness.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    oh well yes. of course. we'll just press the magic "fix healthcare inflation button" that someone in the Senate appears to have misplaced.....
    Grow up. Just as it has been in virtually every other country, HCR is a long-term, evolutionary process. You cannot simply pull 16-18% of the economy into dry-dock while you effect repairs, especially since 310 million people need to depend continuously on that system for their current health care. For someone who prattles on as if he understood the differences between static and dynamic scoring, you sure don't seem to have much grasp over the difference between an mp3 and a jpg.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    ah yes. we'll take one of the most damaging functions of Medicare (an arbitrary reimbursement schedule tied to a fee for service model that offputs costs onto providers and private plans) and make its' effects worse. yes. that will do wonderfully.
    LOL! It only exists at this point because of Gingrich and some Republicans, and then because of some more Republicans. The House passed a bill in 2009 to resolve the SGR and so-called Doc-Fix problems permanently, but Senate Republicans were opposed to its even being put on the calendar.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    you want more revenues, you need more growth. you want more growth, you need to strip out the massive compliance and complexity costs (allowing unrestricted domestic energy production and a regime of regulatory simplification would do wonders as well, but we are talking taxes).
    This is ultra-right corporatist pandering of a notion to re-unleash the engine of American capitalism so that the robber-barons can do again what they did under Bush-43. Pollution controls, worker and consumer protection standards, financial transparency and accountability requirements -- these are all damaging and repressive socialist ideals that drag down the economy and slow our growth. Capitalist Americans after all should have the very same right to choke on the air they breathe and gag on the water they drink as any communist anywhere is Asia!!!

  4. #224
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    The moron economics of right-wingers have put the US economy is its worst shape in quite a long time, and yet the yield on 10-year Treasuries closed at 2.01% on Friday with the 30-year number at 3.16%. The notion of the Fed as the only buyer comes from some free-form place that has no actual connection to reality.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    an increase in effective rates inside of a simplification program that stripped out complexity and reduced nominal rates in such a way that the net savings were greater than the net increases in taxation would give you the result of both higher growth and higher direct revenues (even scored statically, and especially dynamically).
    The recoverable costs of all this imagined "complexity" are unfortunately minimal. The 70,000-page or so tax code is as complex as it is because the economy is as complex as it is. There are no pages written to explain the proper tax treatment of stocks and flows that do not at least potentially exist within the economy. The typical taxpayer is meanwhile affected by perhaps 50 pages, and can either fill out the necessary forms in under an hour or, if that's too much, simply have the IRS do it instead. The so-called embedded costs of taxation that people like the Fair Tax bunch ramble on about don't actually exist.

    The effective rates on somebody meanwhile most definitely do need to increase. As the top 1% for instance saw their effective rates drop by nearly 24% between 1996 and 2007, we might simply put them back where they were by passing a 28% surcharge on their bottom lines. That would have brought in $122.5 billion just in 2007. And that's just the top 1%.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    But simply "let the Bush tax cuts end" isn't even going to come close.
    A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Is there some rule that says we can't do anything unelss whatever it is solves all of our problems by next Tuesday? The Bush tax cuts have been a major economic injustice and boondoggle for more than a decade. Scrapping them for the top two tax brackets is long, long, long, long, long overdue.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Our deficit for this last year was... $1.4 Trillion?
    $1.3 trillion, but what's $100 billion among friends. It's projected to hit about half that in the 2014/2015 range as income support payments decline and revenues once again rise. That's if we do nothing.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    repealing the "Bush Tax Cuts For The Wealthy" would have netted us $80 Billion. Statically (which is to say, ridiculously optimistically) scored.
    LOL! Dynamic scoring would make them look better, not worse.
    Last edited by Cardinal Fang; 02-21-12 at 10:15 AM.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    even the much-aligned Ryan Plan doesn't avoid this train wreck - we avoid it in his figures only thanks to some pretty optimistic projections on growth and long term interest rates.
    Ryan's so-called plan is little more than a shell game. It merely removes costs from the government and dumps them onto ordinary people -- usually the poor and the elderly. The rich of course get more tax cuts. He's a Republican, after all. But moving costs is a very different thing from cutting costs. Ryan's plan fails to solve any problems because it is essentially a partisan facade that doesn't actually address any problems. In that sense, it doesn't count as a plan at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparkles View Post
    until we are willing to look the baby boomers in the eye and say "F You", we are F'd ourselves.
    Ah, back to the divisive and self-serving refrain of generational contempt and hatred. Why is hatred such a fundamental building block of the right-wing anyway?

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    And that interest on it's bonds come\s from the interest on debt (outflow) we see in the federal budget?
    Yes, that line item covers interest on the public debt without regard to the status of the noteholder. The interest owed to China is in there, the interest owed to Citibank is in there, the interest owed to your niece on her Savings Bond is in there, and the interest owed to Social Security is in there. You've seen one investor, you've seen them all. Treasury pays all of them the interest they are owed under the terms of the notes that they hold.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I'll respond to the rest later. but this - you know this is ludicrous, right?
    Critique it if you can. Your toy soldiers have not been standing up well to live-fire, however.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Yes, that line item covers interest on the public debt without regard to the status of the noteholder. The interest owed to China is in there, the interest owed to Citibank is in there, the interest owed to your niece on her Savings Bond is in there, and the interest owed to Social Security is in there. You've seen one investor, you've seen them all. Treasury pays all of them the interest they are owed under the terms of the notes that they hold.
    Thank you! I suspected as much from reading but just wasn't quite sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    Ah, back to the divisive and self-serving refrain of generational contempt and hatred. Why is hatred such a fundamental building block of the right-wing anyway?
    Fear and hate, very closely related.
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 02-21-12 at 01:01 PM.
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