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Thread: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

  1. #191
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    So you pulled a bait and switch and now you're crowing about it? Well, congratulations.

    In the future if you want real conversation instead of a pulpit, you might want to make your change of subject a little more obvious.

    I'm sure we were all aware it was the DI - in fact we pointed that out - but with some of your previous posts as examples we weren't sure YOU knew it was the DI being discussed. Certainly the post you quoted in #183 (that we assumed you were responding to) wasn't talking about the DI.
    No bait and switch. It was something to add to the over all conversation. I considered creating a new thread on it, but decided against it. You don't really understand the SS mess, you have your head in the sand.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



  2. #192
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Wow, no ****? They are different funds? WOAH.

    Now if you go back to the first post I made mentioning 2018, it's clear that the quote is discussing the DI. Then your friend says I'm full of ****, falling for media spin, and you and some other thank him, and mock me..
    You did not create this thread with the underlying argument that SS's DI fund will go into the red by 2018. Secondly, your position can be traced back to this:

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Thank you for that Catawaba, and now how does this show that SS isn't about to go dry by 2022 would be interesting.

    Only, I use the SS Trustee report (the one you guys are harping on) after to show.. yes, the DI is going to be out of money in 2018.
    This was never in contention. You have failed to support the original argument that SS will be out of money by 2022, and instead moved the goal posts in an attempt to use the DI's status as a relevant premise. Which shows how desperate you are to avoid admitting the obvious; you have no business discussing the subject.

    So, this is a case of you, and CF and MS being incapable of keeping up with the conversation. YOUR source shows that MY source showing the DI fund is going to be dry by 2018 was accurate... and all three of you...
    Nobody stated it was inaccurate. Why? Because the DI status was never in question.

    True or false: the SS trust fund runs dry by 2022.

    can't grasp you just pwned yourselves.
    Nope! You will not admit your ignorance in regards to the topic at hand.
    Last edited by Kushinator; 02-20-12 at 05:45 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  3. #193
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    No bait and switch. It was something to add to the over all conversation. I considered creating a new thread on it, but decided against it. You don't really understand the SS mess, you have your head in the sand.
    Fess up to your errors. Nobody is denying the DI status. What is in question (and is the central theme of the thread) is the claim you made about the general fund going in the red by 2022. You cannot support your argument with any evidence. Shifting the goal posts does not suffice.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  4. #194
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    You don't really understand the SS mess, you have your head in the sand.
    I understand the Republicans have wanted to privatize the SSA for years and have spread half-truths and lies about it ever since, all so the Wall Street Gamblers can get their fingers in a $600 billion/year pie. I understand very well what's going on - how about you?
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 02-20-12 at 06:44 PM.
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  5. #195
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    The trust will start to decrease in raw value in 2022, according to the latest report. It's bond redemption rate will exceed its bond purchase rate by 2.6 billion in 2022.

    This started in 2010, when the difference between bond redemption and bond purchases started to shrink.

    Earlier in the thread, someone suggested to increase the cap on the SS tax to correct the problem. In the past, each cap increase has been met with a benefit increase( tax more, get more ). Increasing the cap and increasing the benefit moves the "red" date out in exchange for making the issue bigger. In either case, increasing the cap on SS tax will directly decrease revenue into the general fund, due to the reduction in taxable income.

    Additionally, if we were to increase the SS tax without increasing the maximum benefit, the ROI from SS will scale down based on your income. The current ROI hasn't outpaced inflation, hence the constant adjustment of the cap/benefit level, so I'm not sure how any further degradation would boost confidence.
    Last edited by Samhain; 02-20-12 at 06:47 PM.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    [...] increasing the cap on SS tax will directly decrease revenue into the general fund, due to the reduction in taxable income.
    Only to the extent that businesses pay more SS tax, which would surely be, in comparison to the SS revenues produced, miniscule. There would certainly be no "direct" (1:1) correlation.... more like 1:1000, I'd think.

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Additionally, if we were to increase the SS tax without increasing the maximum benefit, the ROI from SS will scale down based on your income. The current ROI hasn't outpaced inflation, hence the constant adjustment of the cap/benefit level, so I'm not sure how any further degradation would boost confidence.
    ROI is not a factor in the general public's confidence in the SS system. In fact, a small percentage of the public has been brainwashed, by those on the rabid right, that they'll get no SS money at all.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    The trust will start to decrease in raw value in 2022, according to the latest report. It's bond redemption rate will exceed its bond purchase rate by 2.6 billion in 2022.
    Which contradicts the statement that, "Social Security’s bank account will go bust in 2022".
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  8. #198
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Which contradicts the statement that, "Social Security’s bank account will go bust in 2022".
    Exactly!

    I think Cardinal Fang described it best when he was talking about (private) insurance accounts and how they work. That post is around here somewhere - in this thread I think.
    Mt. Rushmore: Three surveyors and some other guy.
    Life goes on within you and without you. -Harrison
    Hear the echoes of the centuries, Power isn't all that money buys. -Peart
    After you learn quantum mechanics you're never really the same again. -Weinberg

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    Exactly!

    I think Cardinal Fang described it best when he was talking about (private) insurance accounts and how they work. That post is around here somewhere - in this thread I think.
    This one says it best: http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1060217767
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  10. #200
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal Fang View Post
    CBO has not predicted, and has not even projected, that the economy will shut down in 2027.
    yeah. it's the "current policy" v "current law".

    about the 2:30 mark:



    Notes held by the SSTF in fact ARE Treasury bonds in laddered maturities that extend from now into 2026.
    not really - Treasury Bonds are publicly trade-able. The Special Promissory Notes given to the SSTF are not. they are, instead, an accounting gimmick; which attempt to put a better face on the fact that an increasing percentage of SSI payouts will come from the General Fund rather than FICA tax revenues. however, the General Fund is already running a Trillion-Plus deficit on an annual basis, and is unlikely to be able to pick up the slack.

    This is a stupefyingly ignorant paragraph that is based on utter nonsense and hogwash plus some baseless end-times rant that doesn't even qualify as speculation.
    you must not spend much time looking at the explosion in our entitlements and interest payments.

    as of 2010, federal revenues were only able to cover for Defense, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid/CHIP. We had to borrow to make half of our interest payments.

    and with the exception of Defense, all of those costs are set to explode, meaning that our annual deficit is going to get far worse, meaning that the interest payment problem is going to get worse, and we are caught in an ugly downward spiral. If we return to normal interest rates, by 2020 we will be dependent upon the rest of the world turning over 20% of it's GDP into feeding our debt. They are unlikely to be terribly interested in doing so for a nation being forced to borrow to cover operating costs on the level that we are already doing, much less than we will be doing.

    that is why the President's own Bi-Partisan Debt Reduction Commission all said that drastic change is needed now in order to stave off fiscal collapse. there is good reason why we were downgraded, and it wasn't because of squabbling in Washington, it was because squabbling in Washington kept us from addressing the fiscal anvil falling on our heads. It's why the IMF says we need to cut transfers by 35% and raise taxes by 35% in order to survive. Except that raising more taxes is no where near as simple as raising rates, effectively closing that venue off to us to the extent needed.

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