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Thread: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

  1. #101
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefgator View Post
    I know the reform is in order, and I thank you for providing me an example of a type of reform that is forthcoming. This still does not quell my anger over the fact that if the money was never taken out and put into the general fund, we would not need reform.
    As I understand it it's all a matter of bean counting, whether to include SS as part of the (general fund) Fed budget or not. At some point Nixon decided to include SS as part of the budget, which was a departure from previous admins. Today we could just as easily reverse that process but understand that it would jump the national debt by ~$2.6 trillion (the current SS Trust Fund balance) and increase the deficit ~$93 billion (SS net revenue from 2010).
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 02-19-12 at 01:59 PM.
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  2. #102
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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    And that money is not going to be there. This is what happens when a population becomes dependent on a government. Watch the riots when these dependents realize the cupboard is bare. It will be worse than Greece.
    No, this is what happens when people who haven't got any clue at all themselves start believing the flat-out rotgut produced by a right-wing rag like the Washington Times which simply distorts the meaning of some numbers that weren't developed for the purpose to begin with.

    Unless Republicans are somehow able to get their wish and prolong the Great Bush Recession for another 25 years or so, everyone alive and working today will be able to collect every single penny's worth of benefits presently promised to them. Far from being broke, the two SS Trust Funds are currently sitting on nearly $2.7 trillion in assets and that number is growing and will continue to grow until the vicinity of 2025-2030. At that point, the balance in the Trust Funds will trend down, once again reaching zero around 2050, just as the last of the baby-boomers is dying out.

    That's exactly what is SUPPOSED to happen, but it will only to the extent that a few guesses turn out to be correct. First, the recession has to be near permanent. If the current GDP growth rate of 2.8% turns out to be normal for instance, the Trust Funds will never run out of money. Ever. You have to assume long-term growth rates of below 2% to get the Trust Funds to run dry. Second, immigration -- both legal and illegal -- has to stay essentially flat, even though baby-boomer retirements will be creating more vacancies than there are younger generation workers to fill them, and the home and health care service jobs that retired boomers will increase the demand for are jobs in which immigrants have been particularly successful. Third, this century will have to see the same breathrough levels of improvement in life expectancy as the second half of the last one did. Keep in mind that what's most relevant here is not life expectancy at birth, but life expectancy at full retirement age -- 66 or 67 depending on how old you are now.

    So you can believe partisan balderdash or try to undertand what the actual numbers say. That's pretty much the choice, and it has been since Bush began his lying campaign about SS in 2005.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MaggieD View Post
    Then, my dear, where is the hue and cry about the latest Congressional gut of the program?? They've cut the employee contribution to SS by 33%. And nobody gives a **** 'cause it's money in their pockets. Hypocrites.
    The money lost to SS through the payroll tax holiday is made up to it out of general funds. Essentially, the 2% is subtracted from your taxes and added to the deficit.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Reality check, SS is a Ponzi Scheme, it's unsustainable, and it's going to implode. Medicare, Medicaide and now Obamacare will drive deficits to levels that make 17 Trillion seem like a pittance.


    Politicians today only care about tomorrows re-election, and today's voters refuse to accept that it's really up to them to make sure the future doesn't destroy us.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    C'est la gare.
    Maybe you meant C'est la guerre, which means That's war. C'est la gare means That's the railway station.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Reality check, SS is a Ponzi Scheme, it's unsustainable, and it's going to implode. Medicare, Medicaide and now Obamacare will drive deficits to levels that make 17 Trillion seem like a pittance.
    The sky is falling! The sky is falling!!!


    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Politicians today only care about tomorrows re-election, and today's voters refuse to accept that it's really up to them to make sure the future doesn't destroy us.
    That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along.
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 02-19-12 at 02:51 PM.
    Mt. Rushmore: Three surveyors and some other guy.
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    Hear the echoes of the centuries, Power isn't all that money buys. -Peart
    After you learn quantum mechanics you're never really the same again. -Weinberg

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    And in all honesty, they seem to be failing us at an alamring rate. The politicians, not your fellow Americans.
    Caution: The majority of your fellow Americans is as dumb as a stick.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    LOL, geez, what rock are you living under? The constitution says nothing about social security; the money was squandered, not invested; and you can't pay your debts if you're using that money to buy votes.
    Wrong. It was invested. As fiduciary responsibility would require. And the entity whose bonds were purchased used the proceeds for its own purposes, just as corporations use the proceeds of corporate bond sales for their own purposes, and school systems use the proceeds of school bond sales for their own purposes. Apparently unknown to many, this is how capital markets work. This is what is SUPPOSED to happen. No one in his right mind would issue debt if he had nothing at all in mind to do with the proceeds.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    No, they could just give me back what I have already paid in, and let me invest it...I'd get a better return.
    Maybe, maybe not. Unless the tax or benefit formulas are changed by then, the average worker with a spouse and two children retiring at full retirement age in 2030 will have earned a real ROI on his payroll taxes of just under 4%. The average investor would have to depend on pure luck to do better than that, and that's not counting the value of the free disability and life insurance components of SS, each of which is comparable to a commercial policy of several hundred thousand dollars. That 4% doesn't apply to everyone of course. In general, SS treats lower-income workers better than higher-income ones. In some narrow cases, the ROI for rich people can go negative. Least of their worries, though, and in any case, don't go thinking so fast how much better off you would be without SS. Keep in mind that the two things that American males most severely overestimate are how good they are in the sack, and how good they are in the stock market.

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    Re: Social Security reserves forecast to run dry in 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    Now, it's true that the Baby Boomer generation is retiring in large numbers and that's feeding into the "reform Social Security Now" frinzy...
    The number of boomers retiring is still small. It will grow, then peak, then start to decline again after 2030. There won't be any more late-boomers to retire at that point, and the early ones by then will start dying off in droves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    ...but the nation also has a millions of disabled individuals who receive SSI/SSDI who very likely did not pay into the system. Add to that the fact that Medicade Part D isn't paid for and it's no wonder Social Security is going broke far sooner than expected.
    Tweet!!! SSI is not a part of Social Security. It is not paid for out of payroll taxes. None of the SS Trust Funds holds any cash on behalf of SSI. The Medicare Trust Fund exists with respect to Part-A (hospital insurance) only. It has nothing to do with Part-B, Part-C, or Part-D.

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