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Thread: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

  1. #51
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    And Israel has been murdering Iranian scientists. I don't see war out of it, but then again, Israel has never been one to be rational. I suspect Israel would just up the level of assassination though.
    My point is that Iran is not afraid to up the ante with more brinkmanship. In fact, as the regime's grip on power has become more precarious, they've lashed out more, not less. It hardly seems implausible that they could go one step too far and cause a war.

    Talking two different situations here. Strikes to stop Iranian nuclear capability and a reaction to acts of war would be different situations. Admittedly the latter does not mean regime change, but there would be heavy strikes on iranian military targets and would probably heavily destablize Iran. With the precarious situation Iran is in, that could easily precipitate internal regime change.
    The Iranian regime may see it differently...especially given the extreme difficulties they're likely to face in another public uprising if they DON'T have some kind of diversion. Heavy strikes on Iranian military targets might encourage a rally-around-the-flag show of support and actually empower the regime, whereas letting them stew would almost certainly lead to another mass uprising when the money runs out.

    Again, Iran has a very limited number of tools it can work with, and only a couple have the potential for positive outcomes for the Iranian power structure. Either bait israel into an act that would bring the Arab states together against Israel, which is unlikely, or keep working on diplomacy. The latter is far more likely to work.
    In terms of the ayatollah's grip on power, I'd say they have a lot more to fear from their own people than they do from either the Israelis or the Arabs. And judging by their actions, the ayatollahs themselves seem to have reached the same conclusion. I doubt the question of "Will Israel launch a war that ends in our removal from power?" even crosses their minds. A better question from their perspective is "Will a war with Israel make it more or less likely that our own people will rise up against us?"

    And honestly it's probably too late for any sort of diplomacy. Iran is in truly dire straits and is likely to face a severe crisis within days or a few weeks at most. Time has already run out for any sort of major diplomatic breakthrough.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-15-12 at 01:07 AM.
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  2. #52
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Talking two different situations here. Strikes to stop Iranian nuclear capability and a reaction to acts of war would be different situations. Admittedly the latter does not mean regime change, but there would be heavy strikes on iranian military targets and would probably heavily destablize Iran. With the precarious situation Iran is in, that could easily precipitate internal regime change.

    Again, Iran has a very limited number of tools it can work with, and only a couple have the potential for positive outcomes for the Iranian power structure. Either bait israel into an act that would bring the Arab states together against Israel, which is unlikely, or keep working on diplomacy. The latter is far more likely to work.
    The way I see it, Iran has painted themselves into a corner. If they trigger war deliberately or accidentally, their military will be destroyed and the leaders killed or ousted. If they open up their doors to the IAEA, this will probably result in their leaders being ousted or discredited so badly they fall from power.

    Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part, but that's the way I see it.
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    There is nothing to think about it


    What side are you in? Iran and the Ayatoilttes?? or the rest of the western world? It's that simple.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    The way I see it, Iran has painted themselves into a corner. If they trigger war deliberately or accidentally, their military will be destroyed and the leaders killed or ousted. If they open up their doors to the IAEA, this will probably result in their leaders being ousted or discredited so badly they fall from power.

    Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part, but that's the way I see it.
    Those are not the only two ways out of this situation. The sanctions coupled with the current regimes desire to stay in power requires that they open themselves up to diplomatic cooperation with the rest of the world. These sanctions have almost crippled the economy of Iran and it's leaders, whomever they are, must deal with that reality and start to cooperate with those they shunned previously.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Talking two different situations here. Strikes to stop Iranian nuclear capability and a reaction to acts of war would be different situations. Admittedly the latter does not mean regime change, but there would be heavy strikes on iranian military targets and would probably heavily destablize Iran. With the precarious situation Iran is in, that could easily precipitate internal regime change.

    Again, Iran has a very limited number of tools it can work with, and only a couple have the potential for positive outcomes for the Iranian power structure. Either bait israel into an act that would bring the Arab states together against Israel, which is unlikely, or keep working on diplomacy. The latter is far more likely to work.
    The Obama WH ordered that Diego Garcia be loaded with enough smart bombs combined with Carrier Groups assets to hit over 10,000 Iranian targets. They think they should obliterate Iran's military in order to prevent any asymmetrical warfare from developing.

    USA to destory Iran with smart bombs from Diego Garcia - English pravda.ru

    I kept wondering why we supported so heavy the Arab revolutions in the states surrounding Israel. I think it's because of not having stable regimes that would be able to support pro-Iranian or anti-Israel. That could be a stretch but I sincerely believe that conversation occurred at high levels of geopolitical strategy.
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Mya View Post
    There is nothing to think about it

    What side are you in? Iran and the Ayatoilttes?? or the rest of the western world? It's that simple.
    The best thing for everybody, Iranians included, is if the Khomeinis go away. I don't care much how they go away, just that they go away.
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    The best thing for everybody, Iranians included, is if the Khomeinis go away. I don't care much how they go away, just that they go away.
    Replaced by whom?

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    The best thing for everybody, Iranians included, is if the Khomeinis go away. I don't care much how they go away, just that they go away.
    I agree the Ayatoilettes have to go!

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Connery View Post
    Those are not the only two ways out of this situation. The sanctions coupled with the current regimes desire to stay in power requires that they open themselves up to diplomatic cooperation with the rest of the world. These sanctions have almost crippled the economy of Iran and it's leaders, whomever they are, must deal with that reality and start to cooperate with those they shunned previously.
    Yeah, that's option #2. Going the diplomatic route is by far their best choice. That will include granting the IAEA FULL access. The IAEA will probably uncover something fishy. Perhaps not a full-fledged nuke but certainly a try to build one. I see this resulting in big trouble for the Khomeinis who will probably be discredited and soon after, sacked.

    This is how they're painted into a corner. Whatever they do, it won't go well for the Iranian leadership. That's bad for them, good for the rest of the world, especially the Iranian people.
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    Yeah, that's option #2. Going the diplomatic route is by far their best choice. That will include granting the IAEA FULL access. The IAEA will probably uncover something fishy. Perhaps not a full-fledged nuke but certainly a try to build one. I see this resulting in big trouble for the Khomeinis who will probably be discredited and soon after, sacked.

    This is how they're painted into a corner. Whatever they do, it won't go well for the Iranian leadership. That's bad for them, good for the rest of the world, especially the Iranian people.

    Sure that is a linear perspective, however, should this occur that means the current regime is mailable and may serve the best purpose for all in the region. At which point they would be supported by all concerned as they essentially would serve a puppets and stay in power as long as they serve that purpose. Not a bad deal.

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