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Thread: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    In another thread, Sharon had said she meant the Iranian SSMs.

    I still say those oil fields will be guarded by some of the best AAA and Anti-Missile equipment in the world. I find it unlikely that an Iranian missile attack would succeed.
    The Sejjil and Shahab we know very little about(officially, our intelligence services probably know more) so their capability is not easy to guess at. However, to make a strike as suggested would spell the end of Iran in short order. Iran is aware of this. The odds of such a strike are remote.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Risky Thicket View Post
    I'm certainly sick of war.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    And who isn't Risky Thicket??? who isn't?

    but we are all sick of the Iranian Regime threats, and of the Iranian Regime terrorism by proxy. And now the thought of those islamic fanatics having a nuclear bomb? no, that is not acceptable in the mind of normal human beings in the Western world.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Apparently the sanctions that have been imposed against Iran have proven to costly to Iran as they have resorted to bartering to bypass the sanctions. There are many ways to approach this problem and an outright war is not the only or most effective solution.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    I don't think most people realize how precarious or urgent this situation with Iran is. A lot of people are dismissing it as more of the standard US/Iran saber-rattling, but this time it's more than that. Iran's leaders are absolutely PANICKED about the latest round of sanctions. The EU stopped buying their oil, the US wasn't buying it in the first place, and even China and Japan have cut back on the amount that they've bought from Iran. Now Iran has done something extremely stupid: they tried to assassinate an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi. India was the one large country who was still buying a significant amount of oil from them, and they aren't likely to be too happy once it's confirmed that Iran was behind this attack.

    Iran has also managed to piss off virtually every country in the region in recent weeks, including Georgia, Azerbaijan, and even as far away as Thailand with equally stupid and irrational attacks on their soil. Do these moves have any logic to them? Not if the paramount goal is to avoid a war. But perhaps Iran's leaders believe that the only way to hang onto power is to PROVOKE a war. They are in a dire situation and may face an uprising of their own - not in the distant future, but in a few days or weeks. Their main ally, Syria, is coming apart at the seams. Iran's treasury is almost empty due to the oil sanctions. The ayatollahs need to do SOMETHING if they're going to survive, and maybe they've decided that provoking a war increases the chances of them surviving by encouraging a rally-around-the-flag effort.
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I don't think most people realize how precarious or urgent this situation with Iran is. A lot of people are dismissing it as more of the standard US/Iran saber-rattling, but this time it's more than that. Iran's leaders are absolutely PANICKED about the latest round of sanctions. The EU stopped buying their oil, the US wasn't buying it in the first place, and even China and Japan have cut back on the amount that they've bought from Iran. Now Iran has done something extremely stupid: they tried to assassinate an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi. India was the one large country who was still buying a significant amount of oil from them, and they aren't likely to be too happy once it's confirmed that Iran was behind this attack.

    Iran has also managed to piss off virtually every country in the region in recent weeks, including Georgia, Azerbaijan, and even as far away as Thailand with equally stupid and irrational attacks on their soil. Do these moves have any logic to them? Not if the paramount goal is to avoid a war. But perhaps Iran's leaders believe that the only way to hang onto power is to PROVOKE a war. They are in a dire situation and may face an uprising of their own - not in the distant future, but in a few days or weeks. Their main ally, Syria, is coming apart at the seams. Iran's treasury is almost empty due to the oil sanctions. The ayatollahs need to do SOMETHING if they're going to survive, and maybe they've decided that provoking a war increases the chances of them surviving by encouraging a rally-around-the-flag effort.
    Provoking a war would almost require them to do something to Israel, and even then much of what they could do would be not provoking, but actual acts of war. If Iran is the aggressor, it loses. Yes, things are bad in Iran and sanctions are working incredibly well(damn Obama doing well in foreign relations...), but Iran has a very limited set of tools to work with, and the war toolset ends in the end of those in power in Iran.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    The Ayatoilets in the Iranian Regime have to be flushed away ....come on world ...come on everybody!
    Last edited by Mya; 02-15-12 at 12:42 AM.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I don't think most people realize how precarious or urgent this situation with Iran is. A lot of people are dismissing it as more of the standard US/Iran saber-rattling, but this time it's more than that. Iran's leaders are absolutely PANICKED about the latest round of sanctions.
    I do think those who wish to look beyond the barrel of a weapon can appreciate the position Iran is in.

    “Contrary to statements made by President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei, sanctions have been effective in their main objectives of reducing the regime’s access to technology to complete their nuclear agenda and reducing their finances,” external economic consultant to the European Union Mehrdad Emadi said.

    Emadi points to a series of signs that reveal the efficacy of sanctions, including the severe reduction in oil exports, which comprise 81percent of Iran’s gross national product, now down two-thirds. He also sites the significant loss of European business partners down from 1,400 companies just two years ago to 200 remaining companies who are struggling today.

    “At best, bartering will only be partially accommodating for Iran. There will not be as many takers as they may be hoping. It will be too complicated and costly to deal with Iran commercially,” Emadi said, citing the high commissions that bartering partners will have to pay when utilizing a third party transactional proxy
    Signs Show Sanctions Are Taking Toll On Iran

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Provoking a war would almost require them to do something to Israel,
    They just tried to kill an Israeli diplomat in India yesterday.

    and even then much of what they could do would be not provoking, but actual acts of war. If Iran is the aggressor, it loses.
    Perhaps Iran's leaders see the calculation differently. It's hard to imagine how they can hold on to power in the event of another uprising like the 2009 Green Revolution or a mimic of the Arab Spring protests. Iran no longer has any stable allies who can help stir up trouble, nor does Iran have any money to pay their goons for much longer. A war may be their only option for survival, in their calculation.

    Yes, things are bad in Iran and sanctions are working incredibly well(damn Obama doing well in foreign relations...), but Iran has a very limited set of tools to work with, and the war toolset ends in the end of those in power in Iran.
    Not necessarily. Even many of the more hawkish elements in Israeli and American foreign policy are quick to caveat their beating the war drums with the assertion that it could be a limited operation to reduce Iran's nuclear capability. A war does not necessarily involve regime change.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-15-12 at 12:53 AM.
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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    They just tried to kill an Israeli diplomat in India yesterday.
    And Israel has been murdering Iranian scientists. I don't see war out of it, but then again, Israel has never been one to be rational. I suspect Israel would just up the level of assassination though.

    Perhaps Iran's leaders see the calculation differently. It's hard to imagine how they can hold on to power in the event of another uprising like the 2009 Green Revolution or a mimic of the Arab Spring protests. Iran no longer has any stable allies who can help stir up trouble, nor does Iran have any money to pay their goons for much longer. A war may be their only option for survival, in their calculation.

    Not necessarily. Even many of the more hawkish elements in Israeli and American foreign policy are quick to caveat their beating the war drums with the assertion that it could be a limited operation to reduce their nuclear capability. A war does not necessarily involve regime change.
    Talking two different situations here. Strikes to stop Iranian nuclear capability and a reaction to acts of war would be different situations. Admittedly the latter does not mean regime change, but there would be heavy strikes on iranian military targets and would probably heavily destablize Iran. With the precarious situation Iran is in, that could easily precipitate internal regime change.

    Again, Iran has a very limited number of tools it can work with, and only a couple have the potential for positive outcomes for the Iranian power structure. Either bait israel into an act that would bring the Arab states together against Israel, which is unlikely, or keep working on diplomacy. The latter is far more likely to work.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: US carrier crosses Hormuz against Iran threats

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    And Israel has been murdering Iranian scientists. I don't see war out of it, but then again, Israel has never been one to be rational. I suspect Israel would just up the level of assassination though
    Sure

    But like in any confrontation .... one has to ask oneself....what side am I in?

    and when you make up your mind you defend your side.

    and that's it ... in war you have to choose a side and stick to it ...it's called loyalty!

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