So, did 1.2 million people really drop out of the labor force? No. The labor force actually increased by half a million people. But the total population increased more than the labor force, due to new census data.
Zerohedge is a very reputable blog and rarely do they get their numbers wrong. They are just extremely bearish biased, they don't care what political party is in power, they think the world is going to end.The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by
1,510,000, the civilian labor force by 258,000, employment by 216,000, unemployment by 42,000, and
persons not in the labor force by 1,252,000
"There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio
Last edited by StillBallin75; 02-03-12 at 10:37 AM.
And they bias towards that end (recently there was some ballyhoo there about oil contracts not in U.S. dollars, which they (he) used as basis for saying the U.S. dollar was going to collapse, when even some of his own cites indicated that the non-U.S.-dollar oil contracts were intended to circumvent U.S. sanctions, rather than any concern about the dollar's stability).
1) More orders were placed in November and December, due to companies adding to inventory. This should slow down, but we should still see overall growth during 2012. I am expecting that the unemployment rate will tick down to a little under 8% by November, but for the most part, this recovery is going to still be more jobless than what is typical. Still, good news.
2) In the historical data, there is a huge bump in jobs during the spring of last year. This is due to census hiring. When the census workers completed their job, and were let go, it resulted in a jump in unemployment. Both statistics are atypical, and skew the data for last year.
All in all, the way I see it is that this is going to be a bonus for Obama, but he is not out of the woods yet. In picking Romney, Republicans have chosen someone who has an outside chance of picking Obama off. There are a lot of people who don't want Obama in office for various reasons - Being black, instituting Obamacare, for carrying out policies that were instituted by Bush, for being too moderate or even too liberal, among others. While Gingrich would be toast on a stick running against Obama, Romney should be able to make it a fight, and I predict that, for the reasons I have given, this is going to be a close election. I predict, at this time, that Obama will win in a squeaker, and it won't be the economy that is the deciding factor. It will be Obama's relentless pursuit and destruction of al Qaeda infrastructure, and the killing of their leaders. The real irony here is that the Democrats are the ones who lead in foreign policy, when they have historically been very weak in that area. Although I have said Obama should win this, it isn't in the bank. It's his to lose, and the president has between now and November to screw it up.
The ghost of Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2016
"He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
Would that be completely awful news? Oh no, we are gaining jobs!
I understand, you have to find a way to be pissed about this good news, so you just go on right ahead.