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Thread: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

  1. #181
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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    He's not talking about the stock market. He's talking about raw job numbers.

    We are at currently 450k total employeed persons less than we were 36 months ago. So, to return to that employment rate and participate rate we had then, we need 250k jobs a month, for about 5 years( due to increased workforce population of about 3 million, and another 100-150k a month ).
    You shouldn't expect a return to pre-recession employment numbers because those numbers were inflated by the real estate/financial bubble. That employment level was never sustainable. Unfortunately it accounted for almost all of the jobs growth during the Bush administration. As a result, the economy lost close to two million jobs from the construction and financial sectors alone, and those jobs aren't coming back any time soon.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    You shouldn't expect a return to pre-recession employment numbers because those numbers were inflated by the real estate/financial bubble. That employment level was never sustainable. Unfortunately it accounted for almost all of the jobs growth during the Bush administration. As a result, the economy lost close to two million jobs from the construction and financial sectors alone, and those jobs aren't coming back any time soon.
    You must be referring to the pre-1981 recession rates then, since the particiaption rate hasn't been this low since august of 1981.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    You must be referring to the pre-1981 recession rates then, since the particiaption rate hasn't been this low since august of 1981.
    The participation rate is also going to decrease as the baby boomers move into retirement. But I was talking about the unemployment rate. Some economists think that the new "normal" will be around 7%, whereas for a time it was considered to be 5%.

    Is high unemployment the 'new normal' even in a recovery? | McClatchy
    Last edited by AdamT; 02-03-12 at 06:39 PM.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by winston53660 View Post
    Why at this point does any one care about that?
    American workers care...

    Go beyond the partisan bull**** and be glad more Americans are working

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by ric27 View Post
    American workers care...

    Go beyond the partisan bull**** and be glad more Americans are working

    Iwas questioning the partisan BS.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The participation rate is also going to decrease as the baby boomers move into retirement. But I was talking about the unemployment rate. Some economists think that the new "normal" will be around 7%, whereas for a time it was considered to be 5%.

    Is high unemployment the 'new normal' even in a recovery? | McClatchy
    If the participation rate is going to drop back to the level in the 60s and 70s, which was ~61-62%, then the base "unemployment" rate should creep up as well. Hopefully the participation rate doesn't drop like that, because our entitlement bomb will come faster and harder.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    I hate to seem cynical, but skewed is a kind term to use for the data I've read.

  8. #188
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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The participation rate is also going to decrease as the baby boomers move into retirement. But I was talking about the unemployment rate. Some economists think that the new "normal" will be around 7%, whereas for a time it was considered to be 5%.

    Is high unemployment the 'new normal' even in a recovery? | McClatchy
    From the CBO's January 2012 Report:

    Participation in the Labor Force. The unemployment rate would be even higher than it is now had participation in the labor force not declined as much as it has over the past few years. The rate of participation in the labor force fell from 66 percent in 2007 to an average of 64 percent in the second half of 2011, an unusually large decline over so short a time. About a third of that decline reflects factors other than the downturn, such as the aging of the baby-boom generation. But even with those factors removed, the estimated decline in that rate during the past four years is larger than has been typical of past downturns, even after accounting for the greater severity of this downturn. Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1 percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent.

    By CBOs estimates, the rate of labor force participation will fall to slightly above 63 percent by 2017. The dampening effects of the increase in tax rates in 2013 scheduled under current law and additional retirements by baby boomers are projected to more than offset the strengthening effects of growing demand for labor as the economy recovers further.
    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/126xx/doc...12_Outlook.pdf

    Basically admitting a real unemployment rate of 10%
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

  9. #189
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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    [...] Basically admitting a real unemployment rate of 10%
    Only to those with experience in hallucinogenics.

    Enjoy the trip

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post

    You shouldn't expect a return to pre-recession employment numbers because those numbers were inflated by the real estate/financial bubble. That employment level was never sustainable. Unfortunately it accounted for almost all of the jobs growth during the Bush administration. As a result, the economy lost close to two million jobs from the construction and financial sectors alone, and those jobs aren't coming back any time soon.
    That's not the only reason ...

    Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate
    by Daniel Aaronson, vice president and director of microeconomic research, Jonathan Davis, associate economist, and
    Luojia Hu, senior economist


    The authors conclude that just under half of the post-1999 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate, or LFPR (the proportion of the working-age population that is employed or unemployed and seeking work), can be explained by long-running demographic patterns, such as the retirement of baby boomers. These patterns are expected to continue, offsetting LFPR improvements due to economic recovery.

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