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Thread: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

  1. #1181
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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Ahh, yes, the ever popular, "people who vote for (insert name here) must be ignorant," fallacy.

    Nice.

    Desperate much?
    No desperation here, and your post is an excellent example of just what I'm talking about. Many of you guys just grab onto a news sound-bite and hold on to it for everything it's worth, while ignoring the underlying issues and problems. You choose to ignore data about people who have dropped out of the labor force, and percentages of people who are no longer looking for jobs, as if they just disappeared and don't matter anymore. These things do matter, and they matter greatly. Someone earlier in the thread was boasting that we are within 400,000 jobs of having Bush era job numbers, but you guys will readily ignore the fact that we currently have 6 million additional people living in the US now.

    Maybe this link will explain a few of the details that are necessary to understand if you're going to have a real discussion on umemployment and how it is effecting us economically. It's not just a simple matter of how many jobs we gained last month or how good Obama looks when you read the news. It's real jobs and real people whose livelihoods are at stake here.

    Reagan Recession vs Obama Recession

    Unemployment is a trailing indicator of the economy. The economy gets bad, and months later you see unemployment numbers rising. The economy gets better, and months later you see unemployment numbers going down. At least, this is what typically happens.
    Following the Reagan recession, unemployment topped out at 10.8% late in 1982. Following the Obama recession, unemployment topped out at 10.2% in early 2011. The duration and depth of these two recessions are very similar. In each case, the recession was officially over months earlier. It takes several months to get to the peak unemployment numbers following a recession.

    Keep in mind the chart above where labor force participation was increasing in the ’80s compared to what we see today. And here’s where we start to see some significant differences in the numbers behind the numbers.

    From IBD: “To get a better sense of how bad Obama’s recovery is, consider this: Under Obama, real GDP has climbed a total of just 6% in the two-and-a-half years since the recession ended in June 2009. By comparison, real GDP had grown 16% by this point in the Reagan recovery, after the very deep and painful 1981-82 recession. Had Obama’s recovery been as powerful as Reagan’s, the economic pie would be $1.2 trillion bigger today. And had job growth under Obama kept pace with job growth during the Reagan recovery, there would be 10 million — yes 10 million — more people with jobs today.” (I added the bold.)

    So during the Reagan recovery, the unemployment rate dropped despite the fact that the workforce increased by millions of workers.

    And during the Obama recover, the unemployment rate has dropped because millions of workers have left the workforce.
    IBD goes on to explain:

    So what’s different? The presidents’ policies.
    Reagan enacted sweeping and permanent tax cuts, aggressively eliminated or reduced regulations, reined in domestic spending, and championed the private sector.

    Obama’s approach has been the opposite — a huge increase in regulations; meager, targeted and temporary tax cuts; a massive increase in size and scope of the federal government; and a barrage of invective against businessmen and the wealthy. Obama has bashed Reagan’s approach, saying that cutting taxes and regulations “has never worked” to spur growth.

    The article in IBD was written before the new unemployment numbers came out. But here’s a recent article by one of my favorite writers, James Pethokoukis. Here’s the meat of his post:

    1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7 percent then vs. 63.7 percent today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 11.0 percent.

    2. But let’s not go all the way back to January 2009. In January 2011, the unemployment rate was 9.1 percent with a participation rate of 64.2 percent. If that were the participation rate today, the unemployment rate would be 8.9 percent, instead of 8.3 percent. As an analysis from Hamilton Place Strategies concludes, “Most of the shift of the past year is due not to the improvement in the labor market, but the continued drop in participation in the labor force.”

    3. Now, to be fair, some of the decline in the participation rate is aging Baby Boomers dropping out of the labor force. But taking that into account still doesn’t get us very far, as HPS notes: “Demographic projections expect that participation rate to be at 65.3 percent. If that full participation rate is the goal, our economy is “missing” 3.8 million workers, up from the 3.4 million we noted in the white paper. The unemployment rate in that context has not budged at 10.4 percent.”

    4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate is still a sky-high 15.1 percent.

    5. If the participation rate does level off at its current rate, according to HPS, the economy would need to generate 231,000 jobs per month to get below 8 percent unemployment by Election Day.

    One more comment and we’ll move on. When the economy does actually begin to make some real improvement, disenfranchised workers will again start looking for jobs. It’s possible that a stronger economy will actually begin to drive up the unemployment numbers because of a higher percentage of people engaged in the workforce. Not much good news in any of these numbers.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by treedancer View Post
    Go back and look at the post he was responding to and get back to me. If you pay attention, then you might get a handle on why he went skippin off to Europe lookin for another place to plant his new goalpost. The graph shows whatta disaster he's been defending since he landed at DP.
    OK, I am getting back to you. Here is the post you quoted and were responding to:
    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Was the GDP higher or lower in 2011 vs. 2010? That question has not been answered. Why is this called the worst recovery from a recession in history?
    You didnt answer the question, you just moved the goalposts back to 2009 vs. 2010. The truth is, and your own graph proves it, that economic growth slowed from 2010 to 2011. Sheik Yerbuti, rather than acknowledging this, has now done some goal post shifting of his own to declare that growth has increased each quarter in 2011; which, while true, is not the point that Conservative was making.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    No, sorry, Sheik, you apparently didn't even read the article so let me help you with the facts, discouraged workers were included in the unemployment numbers (U-3) prior to 1994 and aren't counted today. Pretty simple concept that apparently you cannot understand.
    As you were informed every time you asked that question, the answer was already given to you in post #1135. Can't you follow directions?

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    As you were informed every time you asked that question, the answer was already given to you in post #1135. Can't you follow directions?
    Get someone to read the article to you since obviously you are having a problem doing so

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    As you were informed every time you asked that question, the answer was already given to you in post #1135. Can't you follow directions?
    Maybe this will help you but I doubt it. In order to be helped you have to want to be helped and accept the fact that Obama has lied to you

    Current Population Survey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    1994 Revisions

    As a result of research that started in 1986, a complete overhaul of how the CPS was administered and what type of questions were asked occurred.[8] Prior to 1994, the alternate measures of unemployment had different names because the BLS drastically revised the questions in the CPS and renamed the measures: U3 and U4 were eliminated; the official rate U5 remained the same measure but was renamed U3; U6 and U7 were revised and renamed U5 and U6.[9]

    CPS alternate measures of unemployment before 1994:
    U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
    U-2 Job losers, as a percent of the civilian labor force
    U-3 Unemployed persons aged 25 and older, as a percent of the civilian labor force aged 25 and older (the unemployment rate for persons 25 and older)
    U-4 Unemployed persons seeking full-time jobs, as a percent of the full-time labor force (the unemployment rate for full-time workers)
    U-5 Total unemployed persons, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
    U-6 Total persons seeking full-time jobs, plus one-half of persons seeking part-time jobs, plus one-half of persons employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force less one-half of the part-time labor force
    U-7 Total persons seeking full-time jobs, plus one-half of persons seeking part-time jobs, plus one-half of persons employed part time for economic reasons, plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers less one-half of the part-time labor force

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Maybe this will help you but I doubt it. In order to be helped you have to want to be helped and accept the fact that Obama has lied to you

    Current Population Survey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    1994 Revisions
    You seem to be the only one struggling with this. What don't you understand about the fact that unemployment projects higher as a result of the '94 revision?

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Get someone to read the article to you since obviously you are having a problem doing so
    The article has nothing to do with it. Your question had already been answered.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Maybe this will help you but I doubt it. In order to be helped you have to want to be helped and accept the fact that Obama has lied to you

    Current Population Survey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    1994 Revisions
    WTF??

    Seriously,Con, you are the last person who should be lecturing on CPS data after that embarressing display earlier of self-emoliation when you proved in front of the whole class that you have absolutely no idea what you're taking about when you demonstrated you don't even know what CPS is when you told a poster to use BLS data and not CPS data.

    That was so humiliating, it was painful to read.

    I highly recommend you take the time necessary to first learn about the subjects you yearn so dearly to educate others in.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    You seem to be the only one struggling with this. What don't you understand about the fact that unemployment projects higher as a result of the '94 revision?
    No, it seems to me that you have a problem understanding that there is no way you know what the 94 changes would have done to the numbers from 1981 on because the population model changes aren't specific. If you want to believe Obama's unemployment numbers and economic results are better than Reagan's then so be it even though the facts don't support your position.

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    Re: US economy creates 243,000 jobs in January

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    WTF??

    Seriously,Con, you are the last person who should be lecturing on CPS data after that embarressing display earlier of self-emoliation when you proved in front of the whole class that you have absolutely no idea what you're taking about when you demonstrated you don't even know what CPS is when you told a poster to use BLS data and not CPS data.

    That was so humiliating, it was painful to read.

    I highly recommend you take the time necessary to first learn about the subjects you yearn so dearly to educate others in.
    You are indeed a legend in your own mind. Amazing how someone with your superior intelligence is so naive when it comes to actual data and facts. How someone with your intelligence can support what obama is doing is amazing and yet quite puzzling.

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